ACC expansion

[nelsonmuntz]

True. The Hulu situation isn’t helping but Espn is the largest problem. It’s a depreciating asset at exponential speed. The days of a $9 carriage fee are going with the wind.

I actually like the Hulu business model. They just gave Netflix too big a head start.

 

[Redding Husky]

As a UConn alum, I find it ridiculous that we’re still on the outside looking in. As an SMU alum, I hope the deal goes through because it’s a giant middle finger to TCU and the Big 12 if SMU goes to the ACC.

 

[Fishy]

UConn probably couldn’t justify the upfront costs here. SMU is willing to front the cash to increase expenses, but increase revenue in the future.

They are gonna be upside down when alums bringing in support. UConn can’t justify that. Even if they were willing, it feasible to pay two exit fees and give up what you wanted from last three ncaa tournaments .

Doesn’t really matter - the terms are not being offered to us.

 

[Fishy]

As a UConn alum, I find it ridiculous that we’re still on the outside looking in. As an SMU alum, I hope the deal goes through because it’s a giant middle finger to TCU and the Big 12 if SMU goes to the ACC.

That is the correct attitude.

 

[Fishy]

I forgot to mention the demographic cliff, which is about to drag WVU over a precipice into a death spiral. They will not be the last bad school in a poor state to have to radically alter their entire educational model as a result of the demographic cliff.

I remember very clearly in 2002/2003 the predictions of the death of UConn's, and all of the Big East's athletic departments. UConn has won 4 National Championships since then and made an BCS bowl.

I would tend to agree with you if not for the NIL, Transfer Portal, and the end of linear. Now, anything is possible. I have shared my predictions elsewhere about this going back to last fall, and I have already gotten a lot right. Is UConn in an ideal situation? Of course not. Do I like being in a league with big city schools with large built-in fanbases that go beyond their alumni? Absolutely. Did UConn just win a national championship? It appears you didn't notice.

This round of conference realignment is a sign of panic, not of strength, by any of the parties involved.

Ignoring the rest for a sec….

West Virginia has already gone off of it. If you’re interested, I can find a recent article about it.

Gordon Gee has held more presidencies than any other human in higher education and after reading about what happened at WVU, I consider that an indictment of anyone hiring in upper ed.

 

[superjohn]

Someone above said that OU/UW basically changed the game in realignment, and they were right, so getting in anywhere at a full share is not possible for us. (All of this is theoretical - I think the school has resigned itself that its future is almost certainly not as a major conference member.)

Our television rev is about $4M per year and we’re not included in any windfalls created by the CFP. We effectively give our product away for pennies on the dollar every day. We’d make more money at $0 in the ACC than we do currently.

If you understand the math and you’re coldly logical about it - yes.
If not - no.

But again, we’re on the outside of this and we’re not getting in.

ACC is never going to happen and wanting to join a conference that won't exist in the future is just dumb. We'll either join up with the Big 12 or the left over ACC schools when all the football schools leave. Big East is the best spot for us now.

 

[CL82]

True. The Hulu situation isn’t helping but Espn is the largest problem. It’s a depreciating asset at exponential speed. The days of a $9 carriage fee are gone with the wind.

I agree that ESPN is losing value, but it's still a revenue generating asset to Disney. Disney's corporate strategy is big into vertical integration. ESPN, ABC, and Disney content collectively makes up a streaming package under Hulu.

Disney has also struggled with alienating its core family market. This is been an issue for them for a while, but their decision to talk about it openly alienated their core consumer group.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Would you be in favor of joining the ACC and playing for free?

Yes
As a football only in a heartbeat I’ll even guarantee them some OC BB games maybe at MSG .
The revenue increase at the Rent would make more than our media deal , exposure on a network that people have , plus if we’re successful better bowl tie ins maybe even a share of playoff money.
Football needs to be in a conference to survive preferably a P (?)

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Ignoring the rest for a sec….

West Virginia has already gone off of it. If you’re interested, I can find a recent article about it.

Gordon Gee has held more presidencies than any other human in higher education and after reading about what happened at WVU, I consider that an indictment of anyone hiring in upper ed.

Gee may suck, but he won't be the last University President to see his school crash and burn. That industry needs to downsize, fast. It has been selling a lot of useless degrees at high prices for decades, and the market has finally turned on it, and is about to start shrinking dramatically too.

 

[noeynox]

Lmao. The numbers here speak for themselves. These moves will further allow the Big12 to lap the ACC as a BB conference.

ACC expansion: Stanford and Cal (and SMU, really?) would add nothing to a proud conference | Sporting News

There might be plenty of good reasons for the Atlantic Coast Conference to consider expansion. But none would be properly addressed by reaching all the way to the Pacific coast to add Stanford and California.

www.sportingnews.com

 

[GoConn]

Lmao. The numbers here speak for themselves. These moves will further allow the Big12 to lap the ACC as a BB conference.

ACC expansion: Stanford and Cal (and SMU, really?) would add nothing to a proud conference | Sporting News

There might be plenty of good reasons for the Atlantic Coast Conference to consider expansion. But none would be properly addressed by reaching all the way to the Pacific coast to add Stanford and California.

www.sportingnews.com

It's good to see some journalists ripping apart this move by ACC.

 

[Mora4Prez]

Well this is a fun final nail in our football program’s coffin.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

I feel like people are not capable of understanding what SMU is doing here.

SMU is making basically nothing on whatever the current AAC contract is paying out. People are throwing the $7M figure around as if it’s accurate and that ESPN did not right size the deal after everyone left.

Going to the ACC, selling tickets for games against ACC teams instead of UTSA and UAB, and getting a cut of the CFP and NCAAT distributions from the ACC will be a net positive financially compared to the AAC. And it’s a massive boost for their athletic programs who will now be considered a power conference member.

This makes absolute sense for them.

The Cincinnati 2022 P&L states their conference revenue was $6,000,000 in the AAC . As a public I would suspect that’s a good number . I couldn’t get any detail
Next year UC revenue from conference is projected at $26,000,000 .in the Big 12
I would think SMU ‘s AAC numbers are the same . If they’re included in FB playoff distribution.,in the ACC SMU will make as about as much as they did in the AAC as that pool is huge..

 

[Husky68]

+100000000000000000000000000000000000000

Everyone is wildly underestimating the credit risk of these ESPN contracts. My prediction about ESPN getting spun out and simply defaulting on their TV deals if Disney can not sell it to the pro leagues is looking better every day. If there was a way for me to buy 2027 puts on ESPN, I would do it in a heartbeat.

I keep thinking money will run out but continue to be wrong.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I keep thinking money will run out but continue to be wrong.

Linear bundles will keep ESPN alive for another few years, then the abyss.

 

[superjohn]

I agree that ESPN is losing value, but it's still a revenue generating asset to Disney. Disney's corporate strategy is big into vertical integration. ESPN, ABC, and Disney content collectively makes up a streaming package under Hulu.

Disney has also struggled with alienating its core family market. This is been an issue for them for a while, but their decision to talk about it openly alienated their core consumer group.

Disney is a disaster right now.

 

[LoyalFanCT]

 

[Slasher]

Disney's problems have little to do with ESPN. Yes revenue is declining but it is still profitable. Disney+ is what is killing them, their content creation is way too expensive for the return which is why they are slashing a ton of shows including marvel and others. Once the ESPN channels go DTC that will start replacing some of the revenue lost from subscriber fees from cable. Still if you look at the financials, subscriber fees are only about 30% of their revenues with roughly 600MM with more than 2B in ad revenue.

ESPN is making <$10 per subscriber on cable. They certainly could price a DTC product for more than $10 per user per month. ESPN has very little risk of "dying" by 2027 as some are claiming here.

 

[Vowelguy]

Anyone advocating for Tulane is not to be taken seriously.

 

[djct1999]

Disney's problems have little to do with ESPN. Yes revenue is declining but it is still profitable. Disney+ is what is killing them, their content creation is way too expensive for the return which is why they are slashing a ton of shows including marvel and others. Once the ESPN channels go DTC that will start replacing some of the revenue lost from subscriber fees from cable. Still if you look at the financials, subscriber fees are only about 30% of their revenues with roughly 600MM with more than 2B in ad revenue.

ESPN is making <$10 per subscriber on cable. They certainly could price a DTC product for more than $10 per user per month. ESPN has very little risk of "dying" by 2027 as some are claiming here.

The talk is they will price the dtc product at 25 to 30 a month. My guess is the appetite for that will be less than optimal.

Today, cnbc reported that they had talks with Amazon. First it was Apple. Clearly this is Iger trying to work magic to an otherwise lukewarm demand. The costs of espn are extraordinary. The on air talent is expensive and over the top. The real problem here is for the tech giants wanting to get into live sports, cheaper alternatives with quality exposure are available.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Anyone advocating for Tulane is not to be taken seriously.

Others would say those who don't understand why Tulane is being considered shouldn't be taken seriously.

 

[temery]

Anyone advocating for Tulane is not to be taken seriously.

Anyone who thinks a conference covering the east and west coast, northeast to southwest, has no understanding of what is a realistic long term solution.

Until teleportation is a thing, no conference has a future with that amount of travel.

 

[Ha Who]

Anyone who thinks a conference covering the east and west coast, northeast to southwest, has no understanding of what is a realistic long term solution.

Until teleportation is a thing, no conference has a future with that amount of travel.

Big 10?

 

[JeepCSC]

Big 10?

Big XII?

 

[JeepCSC]

Also Clemson might be inching closer to being a yes vote.