ACC expansion

[noeynox]

I feel like people are not capable of understanding what SMU is doing here.

SMU is making basically nothing on whatever the current AAC contract is paying out. People are throwing the $7M figure around as if it’s accurate and that ESPN did not right size the deal after everyone left.

Going to the ACC, selling tickets for games against ACC teams instead of UTSA and UAB, and getting a cut of the CFP and NCAAT distributions from the ACC will be a net positive financially compared to the AAC. And it’s a massive boost for their athletic programs who will now be considered a power conference member.

This makes absolute sense for them.

Yep. Dollar per dollar it would be a net positive for us as well. Just sucks that the precedent set by UW and OU, because they did it, and basically destroyed the PAC and set this desperate chain of events off.

 

[noeynox]

Yeah it makes sense, just the fact that people have so much money that they’re willing to spend it on something so frivolous as getting into a new conference that likely won’t exist in 10 years makes me kinda sick to my stomach.

That's probably not gonna happen, at least not to the dollar amount you suggest. They could easily make up what the school was getting from the AAC with their spare change however.

 

[JeepCSC]

I believe this is the 3rd conference SMU tried to woo in this way. The Big XII chose Houston, and the Pac died on the vine. I suppose the ACC is in a position to maximize SMU's value with the ACCN, but it's a stop-gap solution. Notre Dame is the only long-term solution at this time, that or the whole conference system blows up in the next decade.

 

[billybud]

If the ACC picks up the needed extra vote...it will be from UNC-NC State.

UNC can still say the ACC goes through Tobacco Road...damned if FSU and Clemson vote "No...No...No"

 

[CL82]

I feel like people are not capable of understanding what SMU is doing here.

SMU is making basically nothing on whatever the current AAC contract is paying out. People are throwing the $7M figure around as if it’s accurate and that ESPN did not right size the deal after everyone left.

Going to the ACC, selling tickets for games against ACC teams instead of UTSA and UAB, and getting a cut of the CFP and NCAAT distributions from the ACC will be a net positive financially compared to the AAC. And it’s a massive boost for their athletic programs who will now be considered a power conference member.

This makes absolute sense for them.

So, should Connecticut make offer the same deal?

 

[HuskyinWRNY]

Would you be in favor of joining the ACC and playing for free?

No

 

[superjohn]

So, should Connecticut make offer the same deal?

No

 

[CL82]

No

That was my initial reaction, but I'm starting to wonder. For the reasons fishy points out above it makes financial sense, even though we'd have to swallow are pride a bit.

 

[ramses 2.0]

If the ACC picks up the needed extra vote...it will be from UNC-NC State.

UNC can still say the ACC goes through Tobacco Road...damned if FSU and Clemson vote "No...No...No"

I guess the more things change, the more they stay the same. But it's been clear that the focus has been on changing UNC's vote

 

[Fishy]

So, should Connecticut make offer the same deal?

Someone above said that OU/UW basically changed the game in realignment, and they were right, so getting in anywhere at a full share is not possible for us. (All of this is theoretical - I think the school has resigned itself that its future is almost certainly not as a major conference member.)

Our television rev is about $4M per year and we’re not included in any windfalls created by the CFP. We effectively give our product away for pennies on the dollar every day. We’d make more money at $0 in the ACC than we do currently.

If you understand the math and you’re coldly logical about it - yes.
If not - no.

But again, we’re on the outside of this and we’re not getting in.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Someone above said that OU/UW basically changed the game in realignment, and they were right, so getting in anywhere at a full share is not possible for us. (All of this is theoretical - I think the school has resigned itself that its future is almost certainly not as a major conference member.)

Our television rev is about $4M per year and we’re not included in any windfalls created by the CFP. We effectively give our product away for pennies on the dollar every day. We’d make more money at $0 in the ACC than we do currently.

If you understand the math and you’re coldly logical about it - yes.
If not - no.

But again, we’re on the outside of this and we’re not getting in.

You are arguing that everything will remain exactly the same until the end of time in a sport/industry that is getting simultaneously hit by three of its biggest dislocations (NIL, Transfer Portal, streaming/end of cable bundling model) in the history of college sports. Add to this the significant potential of football breaking off and the anti-trust problems that the sport has. And this is not even counting the fact that the NBA and NFL are investing in minor leagues and may eventually become direct competitors to college sports.

Any interview with insiders actually in the middle of this, like Trev Alberts, reflect an inability to project much more than 5 years into the future. But sure, you are right, everything will remain exactly the same until the end of time.

 

[JohnFSilver]

I feel like people are not capable of understanding what SMU is doing here.

SMU is making basically nothing on whatever the current AAC contract is paying out. People are throwing the $7M figure around as if it’s accurate and that ESPN did not right size the deal after everyone left.

Going to the ACC, selling tickets for games against ACC teams instead of UTSA and UAB, and getting a cut of the CFP and NCAAT distributions from the ACC will be a net positive financially compared to the AAC. And it’s a massive boost for their athletic programs who will now be considered a power conference member.

This makes absolute sense for

UConn probably couldn’t justify the upfront costs here. SMU is willing to front the cash to increase expenses, but increase revenue in the future.

They are gonna be upside down when alums bringing in support. UConn can’t justify that. Even if they were willing, it feasible to pay two exit fees and give up what you wanted from last three ncaa tournaments .

 

[Fishy]

You are arguing that everything will remain exactly the same until the end of time in a sport/industry that is getting simultaneously hit by three of its biggest dislocations (NIL, Transfer Portal, streaming/end of cable bundling model) in the history of college sports. Add to this the significant potential of football breaking off and the anti-trust problems that the sport has. And this is not even counting the fact that the NBA and NFL are investing in minor leagues and may eventually become direct competitors to college sports.

Any interview with insiders actually in the middle of this, like Trev Alberts, reflect an inability to project much more than 5 years into the future. But sure, you are right, everything will remain exactly the same until the end of time.

I keep reading variants of this as it people think that things will get better for us if things change. They will not.

Out is out.

 

[Exit 4]

So, should Connecticut make offer the same deal?

Rumor has we have pitched this ourselves- seems to have gone nowhere.

 

[CL82]

Rumor has we have pitched this ourselves- seems to have gone nowhere.

I hadn't heard this. Do you have any details?

 

[Exit 4]

I keep reading variants of this as it people think that things will get better for us if things change. They will not.

Out is out.

The fanbase needs to get nutz in this next Hurley season. Show up- be loud. Make it the elephant in the room.

 

[Exit 4]

I hadn't heard this. Do you have any details?

None worth sharing. But there is no way we are sitting around after all this B12 courting doing nothing. AD David Benedict is working every angle.

 

[djct1999]

Just look at Disney’s stock price today. It’s at a 9 year low because ESPN is killing them. There is no out. Espn will be worth less in two years than it is today. This Hail Mary to save the acc network is only compounding the problem. No one will care with the addition of these 3 schools and the fate of the network is already sealed. Wall Street is telling us so!

 

[CL82]

None worth sharing. But there is no way we are sitting around after all this B12 courting doing nothing. AD David Benedict is working every angle.

I'm sure he is, and maybe this is a better topic for a PM, but if we offered the ACC The SMU deal and was turned down, I'd go so far as to say the states relationship with ESPN is officially a toxic one. SMU was an add-on. It could have just as easily have been Connecticut.

 

[CL82]

Just look at Disney’s stock price today. It’s at a 9 year low because ESPN is killing them

There are more things at play with their loss of value than just ESPN.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I keep reading variants of this as it people think that things will get better for us if things change. They will not.

Out is out.

I forgot to mention the demographic cliff, which is about to drag WVU over a precipice into a death spiral. They will not be the last bad school in a poor state to have to radically alter their entire educational model as a result of the demographic cliff.

I remember very clearly in 2002/2003 the predictions of the death of UConn's, and all of the Big East's athletic departments. UConn has won 4 National Championships since then and made an BCS bowl.

I would tend to agree with you if not for the NIL, Transfer Portal, and the end of linear. Now, anything is possible. I have shared my predictions elsewhere about this going back to last fall, and I have already gotten a lot right. Is UConn in an ideal situation? Of course not. Do I like being in a league with big city schools with large built-in fanbases that go beyond their alumni? Absolutely. Did UConn just win a national championship? It appears you didn't notice.

This round of conference realignment is a sign of panic, not of strength, by any of the parties involved.

 

[djct1999]

There are more things at play with their loss of value than just ESPN.

True. The Hulu situation isn’t helping but Espn is the largest problem. It’s a depreciating asset at exponential speed. The days of a $9 carriage fee are gone with the wind.

 

[hoopsfan22]

None worth sharing. But there is no way we are sitting around after all this B12 courting doing nothing. AD David Benedict is working every angle.

There aren't angles to be worked. There are four conferences. One is a purely southern conference, one just rejected us, one has bad blood with us, and the last one has an impossibly high bar for consideration. There's really no where to go right now.

 

[Jbirdp5]

UConn probably couldn’t justify the upfront costs here. SMU is willing to front the cash to increase expenses, but increase revenue in the future.

They are gonna be upside down when alums bringing in support. UConn can’t justify that. Even if they were willing, it feasible to pay two exit fees and give up what you wanted from last three ncaa tournaments .

All anyone was talking about when we were being considered for the big 12 was we need a seat at the p5 table. If this would give us that seat in the long run it would have to be considered worth it…no?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Just look at Disney’s stock price today. It’s at a 9 year low because ESPN is killing them. There is no out. Espn will be worth less in two years than it is today. This Hail Mary to save the acc network is only compounding the problem. No one will care with the addition of these 3 schools and the fate of the network is already sealed. Wall Street is telling us so!

+100000000000000000000000000000000000000

Everyone is wildly underestimating the credit risk of these ESPN contracts. My prediction about ESPN getting spun out and simply defaulting on their TV deals if Disney can not sell it to the pro leagues is looking better every day. If there was a way for me to buy 2027 puts on ESPN, I would do it in a heartbeat.