AAC bowls and our bowl prospects

[huskypantz]

ScottVib used to do an awesome breakdown of this. We haven't needed it in a few years, but anyway here goes. I made the assumption that the AAC gets the access bowl, which adds a bowl to our roster. I don't know how locked in the #7 and #8 bowls are, but if UConn won out and my other projections came through, we would jump Tulsa for the #7 spot in Boca. If the AAC lost out on the access bowl we drop to the Cure.

Eligible - Temple, Navy, Memphis, Houston

Potential:
Tulsa 5-4 (Cincy/Navy/Tulane) - projecting in at 6-6
Cincinnati 5-4 (Tulsa/USF/ECU) - projecting in at 7-5
USF 5-4 (Temple/Cincy/UCF) - projecting in at 7-5
UConn 5-5 (Houston/Temple) - projecting out at 5-7
ECU 4-6 (UCF/Cincy) - projecting out at 5-7

Ineligible - Tulane, UCF, SMU

#1 Access bowl (top-ranked G5 school)
#2/3/4/5/6 The Military Bowl versus ACC. If Navy is eligible, they will automatically take this spot.
#2/3/4/5/6 The Birmingham Bowl versus SEC
#2/3/4/5/6 The St. Petersburg Bowl versus Conference USA
#2/3/4/5/6 The Hawaii Bowl versus Mountain West or BYU
#2/3/4/5/6 The Miami Beach Bowl versus Conference USA
#7 The Boca Raton Bowl versus Mid American
#8 The Cure Bowl versus Sun Belt

 

[Carduccib]

So the only possible bowls are the Cure Bowl and the Boca Raton Bowl?

 

[huskypantz]

So the only possible bowls are the Cure Bowl and the Boca Raton Bowl?

Depends on how the AAC sticks with its bowl formula. We don't have much of a shot at getting into the top 5/6 as the top 4 are already set. I don't know what the tiebreakers are but Cincy and USF have the head-to-head advantage.

The other possibility is a trade of bowl games. Maybe another bowl that's short a qualifying team wants UConn and requests a swap for a higher payday and/or better opponent.

 

[BoatShow]

Can Cincy and USF both lose their game?

I always forget about Tulsa because we haven't played them. 2 games AT Tulane and haven't played Tulsa yet. Way to go AAC.

 

[SAMCRO]

It's nice to even be having this conversation. heres how I see it finishing up:
Eligible - Temple, Navy, Memphis, Houston

Potential:
Cincinnati 5-4 (Tulsa/USF/ECU) - projecting in at 8-4
Tulsa 5-4 (Cincy/Navy/Tulane) - projecting in at 6-6
USF 5-4 (Temple/Cincy/UCF) - projecting in at 6-6
UConn 5-5 (Houston/Temple) - projecting in at 6-6
ECU 4-6 (UCF/Cincy) - projecting out at 5-7

Ineligible - Tulane, UCF, SMU

So, IMO the bowls will be
#1 Access bowl (top-ranked G5 school) - Navy (I think they win the west and beat Temple in the AAC CG)
#2/3/4/5/6 The Military Bowl versus ACC - Temple - geographically the closest available team to bowl location
#2/3/4/5/6 The Birmingham Bowl versus SEC - Memphis - same rationale as above
#2/3/4/5/6 The St. Petersburg Bowl versus Conference USA - USF - same rationale as above
#2/3/4/5/6 The Hawaii Bowl versus Mountain West or BYU - Houston
#2/3/4/5/6 The Miami Beach Bowl versus Conference USA - Cincinnati
#7 The Boca Raton Bowl versus Mid American - UConn
#8 The Orlando Cure Bowl versus Sun Belt - Tulsa

 

[huskypantz]

It's nice to even be having this conversation. heres how I see it finishing up:
Eligible - Temple, Navy, Memphis, Houston

Potential:
Cincinnati 5-4 (Tulsa/USF/ECU) - projecting in at 8-4
Tulsa 5-4 (Cincy/Navy/Tulane) - projecting in at 6-6
USF 5-4 (Temple/Cincy/UCF) - projecting in at 6-6
UConn 5-5 (Houston/Temple) - projecting out at 6-6
ECU 4-6 (UCF/Cincy) - projecting out at 5-7

Ineligible - Tulane, UCF, SMU

So, IMO the bowls will be
#1 Access bowl (top-ranked G5 school) - Navy (I think they win the west and beat Temple in the AAC CG)
#2/3/4/5/6 The Military Bowl versus ACC - Temple - geographically the closest available team to bowl location
#2/3/4/5/6 The Birmingham Bowl versus SEC - Memphis - same rationale as above
#2/3/4/5/6 The St. Petersburg Bowl versus Conference USA - USF - same rationale as above
#2/3/4/5/6 The Hawaii Bowl versus Mountain West or BYU - Houston
#2/3/4/5/6 The Miami Beach Bowl versus Conference USA - Cincinnati
#7 The Boca Raton Bowl versus Mid American - UConn
#8 The Orlando Cure Bowl versus Sun Belt - Tulsa

I agree with the bowl matchups. Temple is a shoo-in for one spot in the championship game. I could see Houston having trouble with Navy as they feed off INT's and they are not going to get them against Navy. By default that would get Navy into the championship game. Temple probably has the best team formula to stop Navy. Temple-Navy for the championship at the Linc would be a pretty fun game. Probably another sellout.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

Can Cincy and USF both lose their game?

I always forget about Tulsa because we haven't played them. 2 games AT Tulane and haven't played Tulsa yet. Way to go AAC.

2 chances to go to NOLA for our fans vs. A trip to exotic Tulsa...we should be sending the AAC scheduling office fruit baskets.

 

[uconnphil2016]

I know that beggars can't be choosers, but I really, really, really hope we aren't stuck playing against the freakin Sun Belt...

 

[uconnphil2016]

Also, if we do get to 6-6, who does everyone think we win against? I think we definitely match up better with Temple than with Houston, but the Houston game is on the road and they'll be coming off a (potential) let down loss to Memphis, coming up to CT to play in the late november cold. Also have two weeks to prepare for Houston. We'll see. Either way, I think we have a great shot to pull out an upset in either game.

 

[businesslawyer]

I'm going to put one more thing on the table. Let's say that we don't upset Houston or Temple, and finish 5-7. Here are two facts:

1. It is highly likely that a number of 5-7 teams (somewhere between 4 and 7 maybe, although projetions will change week to week) will be needed in order to fill all the bowl slots.]

2. When you look at the bowl matchups from other conferences, you have to ask yourself what bowl is going to have an opening (a slot not filled by its contracts) which might have an interest in UConn and its fanbase. The Pinstripe Bowl will have an ACC representative, but almost certainly will not have a bowl eligible Big Ten team for an opponent. If Rutgers doesn't get to 5-7, is there another non-ACC team that is going to be 6-6 or 5-7 that the Yankees would rather have?

I don't understand exactly how 5-7 teams get allocated to fill vacancies, and I'm not giving up on getting to 6-6 and being required to fill an AAC crappy bowl slot, but keep your eyes on this.

 

[SAMCRO]

I'm going to put one more thing on the table. Let's say that we don't upset Houston or Temple, and finish 5-7. Here are two facts:e

1. It is highly likely that a number of 5-7 teams (somewhere between 4 and 7 maybe, although projetions will change week to week) will be needed in order to fill all the bowl slots.]

2. When you look at the bowl matchups from other conferences, you have to ask yourself what bowl is going to have an opening (a slot not filled by its contracts) which might have an interest in UConn and its fanbase. The Pinstripe Bowl will have an ACC representative, but almost certainly will not have a bowl eligible Big Ten team for an opponent. If Rutgers doesn't get to 5-7, is there another non-ACC team that is going to be 6-6 or 5-7 that the Yankees would rather have?

I don't understand exactly how 5-7 teams get allocated to fill vacancies, and I'm not giving up on getting to 6-6 and being required to fill an AAC crappy bowl slot, but keep your eyes on this.

Agree that there will be a few 5 win teams in bowl games this year. I had read that the determining criteria is......wait for it....... APR. Each 5 win schools would be ranked by their football teams APR and selected in that order.

I was looking at the Pinstripe and B1G bowl selection order (I was thinking the same thing). The Pinstripe is one of their mid-tier bowls, and it could be a close call. The B1G currently has 7 bowl eligible teams (Illinois is 1 win shy). If they only get 8 eligible and put a team in the playoff, that may be an option for Pinstripe. Fingers crossed. Of course the AAC would need to release UConn from an AAC obligatio. From the ACC, odds are one of Pitt, Duke, Louisville, or Miami ends up in NYC.

 

[SubbaBub]

Both the Big and ACC should have at least 8 bowl eligible teams. The ACC has 10 tie-ins incl. the playoff/NY6. VT is the only other ACC team with a shot at 6 wins. Assuming they don't pass at 5-7, they will get a slot for Beamer's last game.

The Big has 10 tie-ins, including the playoff and the Rose. Ill, Nebraska, and Minn all have a shot to get to 6 but it's likely that only one will. Minn will take a 5-7 invite. Neb likely won't if they fire their coach.

Bottom line you are looking at 17 teams for 18 slots. I don't think anyone takes 5-7 UConn. The Pinstripe is the best shot but it's no longer the third tier game it was in the BE. It's ACC vs. BiG and they will fill that with better teams. Out best shot is an AAC owned bowl needing a 5-7 team.

 

[J187Money]

So how is our APR rating for football?

 

[huskymedic]

So how is our APR rating for football?

970 -- four year mark of 960.

 

[businesslawyer]

970 -- four year mark of 960.

Is there a way to see how we rank among all FBS schools? As I understand it, if there are not enough bowl eligible teams, first you fill the rank among other schools with 6 win, and then you go down the list of 5-7 teams.

 

[SubbaBub]

Is there a way to see how we rank among all FBS schools? As I understand it, if there are not enough bowl eligible teams, first you fill the rank among other schools with 6 win, and then you go down the list of 5-7 teams.

http://web1.ncaa.org/maps/aprRelease.jsp

 

[SAMCRO]

Here's the entire breakdown of teams eligible, ineligible, 1 win away, etc... (From Wikipedia)

Bowl-eligible teams

• ACC (7): Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Pittsburgh
• The American (4): Houston, Memphis, Navy, Temple
• Big Ten (7): Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
• Big 12 (4): Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU
• Conference USA (4): Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Southern Miss, Western Kentucky
• Independents (2): BYU, Notre Dame
• MAC (4): Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan
• Mountain West (3): Air Force, Boise State, San Diego State
• Pac-12 (6): Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington State
• SEC (7): Alabama, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
• Sun Belt (3): Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern

Number of bowl berths available: 80
Number of bowl-eligible teams: 51


Teams one win away from bowl eligibility

• The American (4): Cincinnati, Connecticut, South Florida, Tulsa
• ACC (1): Louisville
• Big Ten (1): Illinois
• Big 12 (1): Texas Tech
• Conference USA (1): FIU
• MAC (3): Buffalo, Central Michigan, Ohio
• Mountain West (3): Nevada, New Mexico, Utah State
• Pac-12 (4): Arizona, California
• SEC (3): Arkansas, Auburn, Tennessee

Number of teams one win from bowl eligibility: 19

Teams one loss away from bowl ineligibility

• The American (1): East Carolina
• ACC (4): Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Virginia
• Big Ten (2): Nebraska, Rutgers
• Big 12 (1): Iowa State
• MAC (1): Kent State
• Mountain West (1): UNLV
• Pac-12 (1): Colorado
• SEC (2): South Carolina, Vanderbilt
• Sun Belt (4): Georgia State, Idaho, Texas State, Troy

Number of teams one loss from bowl ineligibility: 17

Bowl-ineligible teams

• The American (3): SMU, Tulane, UCF
• ACC (1): Boston College
• Big Ten (2): Maryland, Purdue
• Big 12 (1): Kansas
• Conference USA (4): Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, UTSA
• Independent (1): Army
• MAC (4): Ball State, Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH), UMass
• Mountain West (3): Fresno State, Hawaii, Wyoming
• Pac-12 (1) Oregon State
• Sun Belt (2): Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State

Number of bowl-ineligible teams: 22

Note: Being bowl-ineligible does not, in itself, exclude a team from the chance to play in a bowl game. Tiebreaker procedures based on a school's Academic Progress Rate (APR) would allow for the possibility of 5–7 teams to play in bowl games if not enough teams qualify to fill all 80 spots with at least a 6–6 record.

 

[huskymedic]

Is there a way to see how we rank among all FBS schools? As I understand it, if there are not enough bowl eligible teams, first you fill the rank among other schools with 6 win, and then you go down the list of 5-7 teams.

Might have missed whacking a FCS school but quick cut/paste/sort of Football/Latest Year Avail in NCAA Database (2013-2014) and Multi Year Rate. I din't include any school below UConn.

School Multi-Year Rate
University of Dayton 994
Duke University 992
Northwestern University 992
University of Michigan 990
Stanford University 987
Utah State University 985
Clemson University 984
Vanderbilt University 983
Boise State University 981
U.S. Military Academy 981
Boston College 980
Rutgers (SUNJ) 980
U.S. Air Force Academy 980
Georgia Institute of Technology 978
University of Alabama 978
University of Notre Dame 978
Indiana University, Bloomington 977
University of Central Florida 977
University of Louisville 977
University of Washington 977
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University 977
Kansas State University 976
University of Missouri, Columbia 976
San Jose State University 975
University of California, Los Angeles 975
University of Minnesota, Twin Cities 975
University of South Carolina, Columbia 975
Texas A&M University, College Station 974
U.S. Naval Academy 974
Michigan State University 973
Middle Tennessee State University 973
Rice University 973
The Ohio State University 973
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign 973
University of Maryland, College Park 973
University of Utah 973
Tulane University 972
Mississippi State University 971
University of Florida 971
Northern Illinois University 970
University of North Texas 970
University of South Florida 970
University of Toledo 970
Temple University 969
University of Louisiana at Monroe 969
Auburn University 968
Syracuse University 968
University of Miami (Florida) 967
University of Oregon 967
University of Virginia 967
Miami University (Ohio) 966
University of Hawaii, Manoa 966
University of Iowa 966
Purdue University 964
San Diego State University 964
University of Oklahoma 963
University of Pittsburgh 963
Idaho State University 962
University of Cincinnati 962
University of Northern Iowa 962
Wake Forest University 962
Bowling Green State University 961
University of Arizona 961
University of Georgia 961
Baylor University 960
North Carolina State University 960
University of Connecticut 960
University of Wyoming 960

 

[SubbaBub]

Any idea how conference tie-ins factor into this? Does a 5-7 AAC team with a lower APR get into an AAC bowl over a 5-7 MAC team with a higher APR? I'm assuming the 6-6 MAC team gets in first.

 

[SAMCRO]

Any idea how conference tie-ins factor into this? Does a 5-7 AAC team with a lower APR get into an AAC bowl over a 5-7 MAC team with a higher APR? I'm assuming the 6-6 MAC team gets in first.

Correct, 6-6 gets in over 5-7 either way. If 2 teams are both 5-7, my understanding is a higher APR trumps conference tie-ins. Not sure, but that's how I interpreted what I read.

 

[uconnphil2016]

how does louisville have a higher apr than us?

 

[Jarhead_1775]

how does louisville have a higher apr than us?

Basket weaving 101, 102, 103, 104, 105. No offense to basket weavers.

 

[SAMCRO]

I filtered medics list to only show teams not yet bowl eligible, but could still get eligible. Here's who you can root for or against (with their current record)

Utah State University 985 (5-4)
Vanderbilt University 983 (3-6)
Rutgers (SUNJ) 980 (3-6)
Indiana University, Bloomington 977 (4-5)
University of Louisville 977 (5-4)
University of Washington 977 (4-5)
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University 977 (4-5)
Kansas State University 976 (3-5)
University of Missouri, Columbia 976 (4-5)
San Jose State University 975 (4-5)
University of Minnesota, Twin Cities 975 (4-5)
University of South Carolina, Columbia 975 (3-6)
Middle Tennessee State University 973 (4-5)
Rice University 973 (4-5)
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign 973 (5-4)
University of South Florida 970 (5-4)
Auburn University 968 (5-4)
Syracuse University 968 (3-6)
University of Virginia 967 (3-6)
University of Cincinnati 962 (5-4)
University of Arizona 961 (5-5)
University of Connecticut 960 (5-5)

 

[MilliniumPrince]

how does louisville have a higher apr than us?

The same way UNC kept their players eligible for the past 15+ years...

 

[Tenspro2002]

I filtered medics list to only show teams not yet bowl eligible, but could still get eligible. Here's who you can root for or against (with their current record)

Utah State University 985 (5-4)
Vanderbilt University 983 (3-6)
Rutgers (SUNJ) 980 (3-6)
Indiana University, Bloomington 977 (4-5)
University of Louisville 977 (5-4)
University of Washington 977 (4-5)
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University 977 (4-5)
Kansas State University 976 (3-5)
University of Missouri, Columbia 976 (4-5)
San Jose State University 975 (4-5)
University of Minnesota, Twin Cities 975 (4-5)
University of South Carolina, Columbia 975 (3-6)
Middle Tennessee State University 973 (4-5)
Rice University 973 (4-5)
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign 973 (5-4)
University of South Florida 970 (5-4)
Auburn University 968 (5-4)
Syracuse University 968 (3-6)
University of Virginia 967 (3-6)
University of Cincinnati 962 (5-4)
University of Arizona 961 (5-5)
University of Connecticut 960 (5-5)

I can't wait for the headline "APR Keeps UConn Out of Bowl Game"