A Nova proposal for UConn to the Big East

[Zissou]

UConn to the Big East?

Here is an outsider's perspective as I am a Nova fan.

This is stating the obvious, but it seems UConn's best landing spot would be P5 in the ACC or the B1G, with the Big12 being a distant last P5 resort but a better spot and payday than the AAC. The risk with the Big12 is the uncertainty that it may be downgraded to the G6 if Texas and OU jump ship at some unknown time, maybe in a few years (or maybe never).

I state the obvious because any talk of UConn to the Big East is predicated on acceptance that the P5 invite has not been offered and the offer is not just around the corner. If you believe the P5 invite is about to drop on the doorstep then the Big East makes no sense.

If you accept that the P5 isn't knocking, then the discussion is between the AAC and any other possible non-P5 alignment. I think the Big East is a better fit for UConn as a basketball-first conference with a smaller geographic footprint that would benefit all of UConn's non-rev sports. The Big East would benefit, and value, UConn's NY market position, championship history, and rivalries.

UConn keeping it's football in the AAC while becoming a Big East member may be the best scenario for UConn short of a P5 invitation. Many dismiss the AAC allowing that scenario, but a closer look might show that it is also in the AAC's best interests. Selfishly I look for path forward for Nova's football program with any conference changes. When UConn and Nova were invited to FBS together, UConn stepped forward and Nova declined. In 2010 Nova was invited up again but this time dithered with the invitation for 6 months, and it ultimately expired with WVU, Pitt, and Rutgers objecting as they planned their own conference exits. UConn was left behind in the realignment game. Villanova football was also left behind, but with Nova our failures were more self inflicted.

Here is a proposal for UConn to the Big East, with football in the AAC:

UConn to Big East, an AAC proposal

 

[Adios]

Can we lock this thread already??

Zissou, this has been discussed endlessly here. Just a heads up. Welcome to the board.

 

[Zissou]

Can we lock this thread already??

Zissou, this has been discussed endlessly here. Just a heads up. Welcome to the board.

Thanks. I have been a reader on here for a long time. I thought the different perspective here was keeping football in the AAC and expanding football proactively, and that being better for the AAC than letting UConn go.

FBS conferences value football ~80/20 over basketball. The AAC losing UConn's hoops should rate low vs. football stability in preparation for its next TV contract.

 

[SubbaBub]

This is fine if your goal is to upgrade Nova FB. Why not, everyone else in the NCAA has upgraded at one time or another at UConn's expense, why not Nova?

Any discussion of improving UConn's lot in conference life that doesn't start with welcome to the Big Ten or ACC or B12 (lol) is what to do about UConn FB in terms of generating that kind of revenue to support that. Splitting FB from it's marquee BB programs and/or olympic sports is a no go for any conference AAC, or any P5. It just isn't unless we choose to downgrade to a lesser G5 conference and then there is no guaranteed that there would be any takers. The AAC would rather be a 10 team all sports conference than add any more teams just to keep UConn FB on its own. The P5 is all about FB, if any of them were interested at all in BB we wouldn't be here.

If Nova wants to make the jump (and at this point in the ecosystem that is a questionable decision at best), then they need to look at one of the other leagues and hope to fill a spot in a higher class once the next big reshuffle occurs, if it ever does.

I consider anyone not in FBS FB to be blessed with easy decisions should the money ever run out. Even the Sun Belts or ECU's of the world have an easier decision should that occur. We're stuck as an elite athletics department with no FB revenue to speak of. To give up on FB is to give up on the whole thing. Whereas a program like Nova can exist at a Butler type level indefinitely or as longs as the P5 doesn't take over the NCAA BB Tournament. We just don't have that option any longer.

 

[Zissou]

Splitting FB from it's marquee BB programs and/or olympic sports is a no go for any conference AAC, or any P5.

The P5 is all about FB, if any of them were interested at all in BB we wouldn't be here.

These 2 statements seem to be a contradiction. This always seems to be the conflict of the discussion.

If UConn decided to go Big East, I think it would be in the AAC's best interests to accept the proposal and strengthen the football stability while maintaining a basketball relationship. UConn basketball to the AAC would be similar to Notre Dame football to the ACC, except with FBS it is all about football (so the UConn deal is a smaller exception).

UConn joins the Big East but keeps football in the AAC.

• No AAC Exit Fee
• UConn forfeits all AAC TV revenue through the current 2019-2020 contract. UConn receives a Football-Only share equitable to Navy thereafter.
• UConn Basketball plays 6 games per season over the next X years against the AAC. 3 home and 3 away per season.

Nova and JMU Join the AAC as Football-Only members (or JMU as a full member at the AAC’s option).

• Nova and JMU do not receive any AAC TV revenue through the current 2019-2020 contract. Nova and JMU receive Football-Only shares equitable to Navy and UConn thereafter.
• Nova Basketball plays 1 AAC team every season over the next X years, neutral site.

 

[Zissou]

We're stuck as an elite athletics department with no FB revenue to speak of.

Referencing 2014-2015 spending, UConn spent $14.2M on FBS football while Nova spent $6.6M on FCS. Nova since added a $20M athletics facility, just opened (not sure how that will be allocated incrementally to football).

UConn gets $2M in TV for its spending. Nova gets zero. The difference is not as big as one might think.

 

[upstater]

My only question is, why James Madison and why not Old Dominion?

An ex-factor in all this: the next AAC TV contract. If UConn manages to get its Tier3 TV rights back, which it is attempting to do, then the money will be much much higher in the AAC. UConn could make $10m a year off its Tier3 rights alone. The BE, like the AAC, retains Tier3 rights for now.

 

[Zissou]

My only question is, why James Madison and why not Old Dominion?

An ex-factor in all this: the next AAC TV contract. If UConn manages to get its Tier3 TV rights back, which it is attempting to do, then the money will be much much higher in the AAC. UConn could make $10m a year off its Tier3 rights alone. The BE, like the AAC, retains Tier3 rights for now.

ODU could also work. JMU is the reigning FCS national champ, has demonstrated consistent success, and is growing and investing.

$10M for tier 3 seems like an overvaluation to me.

 

[Zissou]

What is the projected annual payout to each school for the next TV deal (Tier 1and2)? I would think Aresco is a hero if he lands $10M per school. Maybe Tier 3 is worth a few million?

If UConn's Tier 3 rights alone were worth $10M, wouldn't UConn be better off just being FBS Independent?

 

[upstater]

ODU could also work. JMU is the reigning FCS national champ, has demonstrated consistent success, and is growing and investing.

$10M for tier 3 seems like an overvaluation to me.

ODU is already D1.

$10m minimum, I'd say. UConn's royalty & licensing take is already $25m, pretty hefty. The tier 3 games of the UConn women alone were worth $1.8m a year about 5-10 years ago. They have to be worth at least double that now, given the higher ratings.

Several years ago, SNY bought up the UConn package. They paid $1.8m for the women, and got the men and football for free because the BE held those rights (or, rather, SNY paid ESPN to show those games). The eye-popping part of the deal was that SNY moved from being on a Sports tier on Conn. cable systems, with few subscribers, to Basic cable. You didn't even need a cable box. With 1.3m cable subscribers, you do the math. 1.3m x 12 months x $2.65 per sub per month. That's what UConn is worth in-state. Not to mention the out-of-state ratings in New York for men's and women's bball, which aren't bad. Heck, Syracuse men's bball was on the same channel, and even the UConn women would preempt them if they were on at the same time.

Granted, SNY used to charge $1.35 for the Mets on SNY, but again, there were very few subscribers. UConn should be credited for the entire $2.65 monthly fee for 90% of those subscribers.

 

[upstater]

What is the projected annual payout to each school for the next TV deal (Tier 1and2)? I would think Aresco is a hero if he lands $10M per school. Maybe Tier 3 is worth a few million?

If UConn's Tier 3 rights alone were worth $10M, wouldn't UConn be better off just being FBS Independent?

Aresco isn't going to land anything close to $10m. I assume without UConn's tier3 it might even be less than current, although the football ratings are definitely higher than what ESPN must have expected--they are higher than the old BE ratings.

If UConn goes independent it will never join the P5.

 

[Zissou]

Aresco isn't going to land anything close to $10m. I assume without UConn's tier3 it might even be less than current, although the football ratings are definitely higher than what ESPN must have expected--they are higher than the old BE ratings.

Hmmm... I'd be surprised if Tier3 rights exceeded the value of Tier1/2 rights. If the AAC TV rights are not worth more than $2M in the next contract I would think the AAC doesn't survive.

 

[upstater]

Hmmm... I'd be surprised if Tier3 rights exceeded the value of Tier1/2 rights. If the AAC TV rights are not worth more than $2M in the next contract I would think the AAC doesn't survive.

You can't make this comparison easily though because the tier 1 & 2 rights are already bound up with the rights of all the other teams in the conference. UConn's tier 1 & 2 rights are worth far more than $2m. But UConn has to share the value of its rights.

The comparison here is easily made. The women's tier 3 rights = the men's football, the men's bball and the women's bball tier 1, 2, 3 rights.

When you look at that equation, you already know things are skewed by the conference affiliation. But it goes beyond this since the AAC traded money for exposure. ESPN guaranteed 90% of the bball games and 85% of the football games would be on the network. Over the last 4 years, UConn has averaged between 12-16 regular season games on CBS, Fox, ESPN and ESPN2 (i.e. the top networks, excluding ESPNU, FS1 or FS2 or CBSSN), and it's one of the top 10 most exposed teams in the country. It traded money for this exposure.

 

[Ldandy]

These 2 statements seem to be a contradiction. This always seems to be the conflict of the discussion.

If UConn decided to go Big East, I think it would be in the AAC's best interests to accept the proposal and strengthen the football stability while maintaining a basketball relationship. UConn basketball to the AAC would be similar to Notre Dame football to the ACC, except with FBS it is all about football (so the UConn deal is a smaller exception).

UConn joins the Big East but keeps football in the AAC.

• No AAC Exit Fee
• UConn forfeits all AAC TV revenue through the current 2019-2020 contract. UConn receives a Football-Only share equitable to Navy thereafter.
• UConn Basketball plays 6 games per season over the next X years against the AAC. 3 home and 3 away per season.

Nova and JMU Join the AAC as Football-Only members (or JMU as a full member at the AAC’s option).

• Nova and JMU do not receive any AAC TV revenue through the current 2019-2020 contract. Nova and JMU receive Football-Only shares equitable to Navy and UConn thereafter.
• Nova Basketball plays 1 AAC team every season over the next X years, neutral site.

To your first point it is not at all in the best interest of The AAC to allow any existing member the ability to dictate the terms of their membership. If Uconn proposed your scenario and Aresco even entertained it, he should be fired on the spot. It doesn't strengthen conference stability, it completely undermines it. If they gave Uconn this deal they would have to allow others to pursue deals that were in their percievd best interests as well. At that point the AAC stops functioning as a conference and becomes a loose confederation of independents. That's not happening.

To your second part I ask a simple question, The Fuq is this? Why would The AAC want Villanova and JMU to join as football only members? What would that accomplish? How does that strengthen the league? One school would play second fiddle to a conference member that currently plays third fiddle in it's own city, and the other is so far off the radar of the average sports fan that they likely couldn't identify which state they were located in if you eliminated 48 out of 50 for them.

Finally I have to ask, why would these two current FCS Programs want to invest in a move to FBS only to be stuck in a conference that barely pays enough to cover their operating costs? Nova had their shot and they didn't pull the trigger. That ship has sailed, and the days when that idea had any merit aren't coming back. Stick to basketball. You can win and make some money. Nova is not Uconn. The athletic departments and mission of the universities are in no way similar. Uconn needs FBS/P5 Football to survive, FBS Football would potentially bankrupt Nova.

 

[Zissou]

To your first point it is not at all in the best interest of The AAC to allow any existing member the ability to dictate the terms of their membership. If Uconn proposed your scenario and Aresco even entertained it, he should be fired on the spot.

To your second part I ask a simple question, The Fuq is this? Why would The AAC want Villanova and JMU to join as football only members? What would that accomplish? How does that strengthen the league?

Finally I have to ask, why would these two current FCS Programs want to invest in a move to FBS only to be stuck in a conference that barely pays enough to cover their operating costs?

I'm not sure you read the proposal in the original link, as these questions are addressed there. I'll answer them here as well.

The AAC already has Navy as a football only member. The Big East TV money would more than offset losing the AAC deal for UConn. UConn may be better off with the Big East option, so for Aresco, is the membership better off with the proposal, or losing UConn altogether? If UConn leaves, who does the AAC pick up to replace UConn, and have that add be greater than UConn's value? I argue that the AAC is better off accommodating UConn. What if others wanted to leave and be football only? UConn is in a unique situation. Where is Cincy going to go? The P5 is the only better option for most.

To your second part, if the AAC was to proactively expand, it isn't crazy that two top end FCS programs would be on similar consideration as C-USA or MAC outliers. Adding 2 in the northern footprint reduces the division footprint that is a common complaint in the AAC. Playing more teams in your division footprint and fewer cross division reduces the travel, and reduces the frequency of playing the south division schools which seem to be the complaint of many on the board. Would playing Nova and JMU instead of Tulsa, Tulane, and SMU be better or worse? Again, is the AAC better with this scenario, or losing UConn altogether?

Finally, as UConn knows the financials of FCS aren't a no brainer either. FCS has no added revenue potential. Struggling withe a $7M football expense with no hope of revenue and uninteresting opponents is worse than spending $12M, having opportunity for revenue, and playing football that matters. Temple is Nova's natural rival - playing for the Mayor's Cup on equal FBS footing would be good for football in Philly, would be good for both programs, and would be good for the AAC.

Whether it be basketball or football, rivalries matter. This point is often lost in CR. Who are BC's rivals now? Who are UConn's rivals now? This proposal is a win for UConn, a win for Nova, a win for the AAC, and a win for the Big East.

 

[Zissou]

You can't make this comparison easily though because the tier 1 & 2 rights are already bound up with the rights of all the other teams in the conference. UConn's tier 1 & 2 rights are worth far more than $2m. But UConn has to share the value of its rights.

Going independent has its down sides for sure, but just as a hypothetical let's entertain it to better understand your view of UConn's TV value.

As a hypothetical, say UConn goes to the Big East and is Independent in FBS football. Nova and JMU move to FBS Ind as well, and Cincy, Temple, Navy, UMass, Marshall, ODU, and Army join in a scheduling alliance as well. So 10 East / Mid-Atlantic teams in an Independent schedule alliance, but not a conference.

Instead of $2M AAC TV rights, UConn has ~$5M Big East TV rights, not including football.

Let's consider WBB as fully Tier 3 (outside of the Fox - Big East deal). What is UConn's value if they shopped their own TV deal to Fox, SNY, YES, etc for Football and WBB?

 

[upstater]

Going independent has its down sides for sure, but just as a hypothetical let's entertain it to better understand your view of UConn's TV value.

As a hypothetical, say UConn goes to the Big East and is Independent in FBS football. Nova and JMU move to FBS Ind as well, and Cincy, Temple, Navy, UMass, Marshall, ODU, and Army join in a scheduling alliance as well. So 10 East / Mid-Atlantic teams in an Independent schedule alliance, but not a conference.

Instead of $2M AAC TV rights, UConn has ~$5M Big East TV rights, not including football.

Let's consider WBB as fully Tier 3 (outside of the Fox - Big East deal). What is UConn's value if they shopped their own TV deal to Fox, SNY, YES, etc for Football and WBB?

UConn football would devolve so its value would be minimal. $1m tops? Though there are coaches' shows on SNY that bring in that licensing money.

The women's tier3 would be worth at least $2m, but likely closer to $3m.

So, assuming that Fox re-ups with the BE for $5m, you might expect UConn to pull in $8-9mm in TV revenues, but it may start bleeding in terms of licensing from the football devaluation.

A more interesting point though would be to compare the monetary benefit of moving to the BE if somehow UConn achieved its real goal: forcing the AAC to relinquish all tier 3 rights to the schools. At that point, you'd have to figure out the value of the men plus a football team that is not devalued. You could have a total of $10m in tier3 rights. And then if the AAC upped its contract to $3m a year, that would be better money than the BE.

 

[HuskyHawk]

You can't make this comparison easily though because the tier 1 & 2 rights are already bound up with the rights of all the other teams in the conference. UConn's tier 1 & 2 rights are worth far more than $2m. But UConn has to share the value of its rights.

The comparison here is easily made. The women's tier 3 rights = the men's football, the men's bball and the women's bball tier 1, 2, 3 rights.

When you look at that equation, you already know things are skewed by the conference affiliation. But it goes beyond this since the AAC traded money for exposure. ESPN guaranteed 90% of the bball games and 85% of the football games would be on the network. Over the last 4 years, UConn has averaged between 12-16 regular season games on CBS, Fox, ESPN and ESPN2 (i.e. the top networks, excluding ESPNU, FS1 or FS2 or CBSSN), and it's one of the top 10 most exposed teams in the country. It traded money for this exposure.

I think we can expect Aresco to take a different approach with the next deal. These schools need more money, and if reports are accurate, the AAC is ESPN's most profitable property. They will bid higher, and others will bid against them this time. I don't think the American can get close to P5 money, but it should be substantially higher than it is now, or than any other G5 conference. I'm thinking in the $7-8M a year per team range. Now, will that include T3 rights? Probably...UConn is going to have to push hard on that. I often wonder if the Big East rumors are out there to give UConn more leverage with the American.

 

[Zissou]

I think we can expect Aresco to take a different approach with the next deal. These schools need more money, and if reports are accurate, the AAC is ESPN's most profitable property. They will bid higher, and others will bid against them this time. I don't think the American can get close to P5 money, but it should be substantially higher than it is now, or than any other G5 conference. I'm thinking in the $7-8M a year per team range. Now, will that include T3 rights? Probably...UConn is going to have to push hard on that. I often wonder if the Big East rumors are out there to give UConn more leverage with the American.

That was more my perspective - $7-8M best guess and $10M would be a home run.

So let's say it is $7.5M and UConn negotiates retention of its T3 rights (including all WBB).

Going Big East and keeping AAC Football yields something like:
Big East ~5M (all MBB are televised, so no MBB T3)
AAC football ~$6M ($7.5M x 80% for football only)
T3 ~$2M (WBB and any football not picked up T1/2)
Thats ~$13M just in TV rights. It's not P5, but it is better than anything else not P5.

"They will bid higher, and others will bid against them this time. " I think this is critically important to the AAC. I think UConn is one of the most valuable programs in conference, not only for what it has acheived, but because of the NY market. I would think Aresco would want to choose football expansion and keeping UConn football vs. losing one of his most valuable properties right before his TV negotiations. "UConn left but all is OK because we replaced them with ODU" seems less compelling.

 

[mavblues]

You guys are like the ex girlfriend who drunk dials you when she wants a booty call.

We've left the BigEast and we have a new girlfriend now. Let us go.

 

[Zissou]

We've left the BigEast and we have a new girlfriend now. Let us go.

That's not technically true. The 7 basketball teams left the conference and took the Big East name with them.

I wouldn't come here to discuss it if there wasn't so much interest already expressed from UConn in the press and folks on this board in general. There is certainly a "never Big East" segment on here, but I have also seen many express interest.

Leaving the trite girlfriend analogy behind, I admit I'd rather have UConn in our basketball conference. At least someone wants you!

 

[HuskyHawk]

That was more my perspective - $7-8M best guess and $10M would be a home run.

So let's say it is $7.5M and UConn negotiates retention of its T3 rights (including all WBB).

Going Big East and keeping AAC Football yields something like:
Big East ~5M (all MBB are televised, so no MBB T3)
AAC football ~$6M ($7.5M x 80% for football only)
T3 ~$2M (WBB and any football not picked up T1/2)
Thats ~$13M just in TV rights. It's not P5, but it is better than anything else not P5.

"They will bid higher, and others will bid against them this time. " I think this is critically important to the AAC. I think UConn is one of the most valuable programs in conference, not only for what it has acheived, but because of the NY market. I would think Aresco would want to choose football expansion and keeping UConn football vs. losing one of his most valuable properties right before his TV negotiations. "UConn left but all is OK because we replaced them with ODU" seems less compelling.

UConn is not getting an 80% payout if they keep football in the AAC. More like 50%.

 

[Zissou]

UConn is not getting an 80% payout if they keep football in the AAC. More like 50%.

That would be counter to all of the previous football/basketball precedent, right?

What is Navy's share?

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

Nova ,,, nothing new, just no good

 

[Zissou]

Regarding Navy, it looks like they kept their existing CBS contract through 17-18, and then Navy will roll into the AAC deal with the next negotiation. This should be another boost for Aresco (who reportedly negotiated the Navy deal when he was a CBS exec).

Going forward I am betting the "football only" share is closer to 80% than the 50% suggested above.

80% of $7.5M = $6M and would probably be a reasonable increase over Navy's 10 year old CBS contract. Navy is probably more valuable today with their recent profile.