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The NYC DMA has 21,000,000 people and 7.8 million census households, and 7.3 million television households, according to Nielsen. It is composed of 29 counties total in New York, CT (Fairfield), New Jersey (13), and Penn (Pike County).
The New York part of the DMA including NYC, Long Island, and northern NYC counties has 4.9 million households.
The southwestern Connecticut portion of the DMA contains 332,000 households, 299,000 television households.
New Jersey has 21 counties, of which 13 are included in the DMA.
The total number of television households in New Jersey is 3,414,000 according to the dclgroup.com
The New Jersey portion of the NYC DMA contains 2,400,000 households, 2,160,000 television households. The New Jersey portion of the Philadelphia DMA contains 1,014,000 television households.
Rutgers impact on the BTN
The following assumes that in New York City proper, i.e., Manhattan, the other four boroughs, as well as the rest of New York state in the NYC DMA, that Rutgers' and UConn's influence and likely impact on the Big Ten's attempt at carriage are the same. ( My hunch is that this isn't the case, and that UConn's brand is superior in the five boroughs and Long Island, especially as it concerns content for 365 days a year, and not just 12 weekends in the fall). I don't really know how the BTN is going to sell Rutgers in the city and Long Island. That's the first big assumption, the Five Boroughs Assumption.
Rutgers' impact on the BTN's carriage negotiations is not known in the city, but it should be stronger obviously in New Jersey, and this is where things get interesting. Following are the numbers assuming different subscriber fees. The BTN gets an average $.80/subscriber in footprint states, and $.10 in nonfootprint states. What leverage will the BTN have with the cable companies in New Jersey? The second big assumption that I make is that the appetite to watch UConn in Connecticut is greater than the appetite to watch Rutgers in New Jersey.
This is based on UConn's clear captivation of the state. Hello, Warde. The men's and women's basketball team have disparate followers. Those who demand to watch the men are a different audience, and hence, a different potential subscriber, than those who watch the girls. Football probably shares a large proportion of the fan base with men's basketball, but undeniably there are potential football subscribers who aren't basketball fans. Also, men's and women's basketball draws well, and are consistently in the top 15 in the nation in attendance. Football attendance has seen a decline, ostensibly due, in no particular order, to the quality of the product, the economy, and the coaching staff's attempt to turn the Rent into their personal retirement home. Moreover, UConn's brand and worth in the state have been monetized by a network already, SNY. SNY's addition of a second Connecticut feed affirms this assumption. (It is also ironic that UConn's agreement with SNY just for women's basketball exceeds the likely payout of the Catholic 7's stand alone tv deal and is greater than the men's A10 deal, more than $1 million annually). Additionally, UConn has one of the most lucrative media rights agreement in the country with IMG. That agreement, encompassing sponsorship, radio, etc. dwarfs by a factor of 10 Rutgers' media rights deal, and pays out more $10 million a year. The UConn brand is so strong in Connecticut that Webster Bank just recently saw fit to strike what is rumored to be one of the most lucrative single entity sponsorship agreements ever with a university. As for UConn's national appeal, UConn's $45 million agreement with Nike is a tangible testament to that.
To the numbers.
Northern New Jersey portion of DMA
2,400,000 households, 2.16m television households
$.10 per subscriber=$216,000/month
$.40 per subscriber=$864,00/month
$.60 per subscriber=$1,296,000/month
$.80 per subscriber=$1,728,000/month
Compare to UConn and the Fairfield County portion of the NYC DMA.
Here, I am going to use three numbers. But first let me explain my reasoning. I don't know what the BTN would be able to command , so I will assume it will be at least equal to the BTN average; then I will assume $1.60, the average of the BTN footprint average and SNY's current charge of $2.40 per subscriber; and finally SNY's rate of $2.40.
Connecticut portion of NYC DMA
332,000 households, 299,000 television
299,000*.80=$239,200
299,000*$1.60=$478,400
299,000*2.40=$717,600
Will the BTN command 50% of its average in northern New Jersey? Just from looking at the carriage fight that the BTN had in Philly, that number is optimistic. And even at that number, it is about what the BTN would get for UConn in Fairfield County. $864,000 versus $717,000.
The numbers for the southern New Jersey portion of the Philly DMA
1,014,000 television households
1,014,000*.10=$101,400/month
1,014,000*.40=$405,600/month
1,014,000*.60=$608,400/month
1,014,000*.80=$911,200/month
Hartford-New Haven DMA
Number of television households:
Nielsen says 995,000 television households
995,000*.80=$796,000/month
995,000*1.60=$1,592,000/month
995,000*2.40=$2,388,000/month
Rutgers Total
Northern NJ portion of NYC DMA and southern NJ portion of Philly DMA
216,000+101,400=$317,400/month
864,000+405,600=$1,269,600/month
1,296,000+608,400=1,904,400/month
1,728,000+911,200=$2,639,200/month
UConn Total
Southwest CT portion of NYC DMA and Hartford-New Haven
239,200+796,000=$1,035,200/month
478,400+1,592,000=$2,070,000/month
717,600+2,388,000=3,100,000/month
So in a nutshell, if you take out the five boroughs and Long Island, UConn is more valuable to the Big Ten Network than Rutgers. As for how Delany expects the Big Ten Network to be received in New York City's five boroughs and Long Island? I seriously doubt that he will attempt to do so with one hand tied behind his back, which is what he would be facing with just Rutgers.
The Big Ten also makes money off of advertising, something close to 20% of its revenue.
As for national cable subscribers and whether UConn is more valuable there? At some point diluted content won't fly. UConn has a brand. Increasingly in football (10 years into the FBS subdivision and already two Big East championships and a BCS game. That's remarkable. Additionally, plans exist for an expansion of Rentschler Field to over 50,000 seats, as well as preliminary designs of an on-campus stadium first made when UConn was considering the FBS upgrade.) The brand is undeniable in basketball.
As for those who think that only football content matters, perhaps if you're the ACC schools and were forced through your commissioner to reward cronyism and Raycom, it does. But just as baseball is seeing blockbuster deals (Fox Sports, the same partner with the Big Ten has been very active there), what is king is having content that people want to watch and are willing to pay for. UConn's home state is blessed as being one of the most affluent in the country. It's willingness to pay for UConn content is not subject to debate. The Big Ten Network is a 365 day network. It would be well-served having a NYC area team that has a proven track record of delivering with results, not speculation.
TVN and Nielsen showing Hartford-New Haven DMA
http://www.tvnewscheck.com/tv-station-directory/station/wtic-tv
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=hartford dma nielsen&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CDoQFjAC&url=http://www.nielsen.com/content/dam/corporate/us/en/public%20factsheets/tv/2012-2013%20DMA%20Ranks.pdf&ei=NQPMUL_SLMqFywGqlYGAAg&usg=AFQjCNGi5qTPnYYTOONW5bhDOut-qP1dwA
There is conflicting data about the average that the BTN receives. One other source indicates the BTN receives $.97 in footprint states and $.06 nationally, but most cite $.80 and $.10.
The New York part of the DMA including NYC, Long Island, and northern NYC counties has 4.9 million households.
The southwestern Connecticut portion of the DMA contains 332,000 households, 299,000 television households.
New Jersey has 21 counties, of which 13 are included in the DMA.
The total number of television households in New Jersey is 3,414,000 according to the dclgroup.com
The New Jersey portion of the NYC DMA contains 2,400,000 households, 2,160,000 television households. The New Jersey portion of the Philadelphia DMA contains 1,014,000 television households.
Rutgers impact on the BTN
The following assumes that in New York City proper, i.e., Manhattan, the other four boroughs, as well as the rest of New York state in the NYC DMA, that Rutgers' and UConn's influence and likely impact on the Big Ten's attempt at carriage are the same. ( My hunch is that this isn't the case, and that UConn's brand is superior in the five boroughs and Long Island, especially as it concerns content for 365 days a year, and not just 12 weekends in the fall). I don't really know how the BTN is going to sell Rutgers in the city and Long Island. That's the first big assumption, the Five Boroughs Assumption.
Rutgers' impact on the BTN's carriage negotiations is not known in the city, but it should be stronger obviously in New Jersey, and this is where things get interesting. Following are the numbers assuming different subscriber fees. The BTN gets an average $.80/subscriber in footprint states, and $.10 in nonfootprint states. What leverage will the BTN have with the cable companies in New Jersey? The second big assumption that I make is that the appetite to watch UConn in Connecticut is greater than the appetite to watch Rutgers in New Jersey.
This is based on UConn's clear captivation of the state. Hello, Warde. The men's and women's basketball team have disparate followers. Those who demand to watch the men are a different audience, and hence, a different potential subscriber, than those who watch the girls. Football probably shares a large proportion of the fan base with men's basketball, but undeniably there are potential football subscribers who aren't basketball fans. Also, men's and women's basketball draws well, and are consistently in the top 15 in the nation in attendance. Football attendance has seen a decline, ostensibly due, in no particular order, to the quality of the product, the economy, and the coaching staff's attempt to turn the Rent into their personal retirement home. Moreover, UConn's brand and worth in the state have been monetized by a network already, SNY. SNY's addition of a second Connecticut feed affirms this assumption. (It is also ironic that UConn's agreement with SNY just for women's basketball exceeds the likely payout of the Catholic 7's stand alone tv deal and is greater than the men's A10 deal, more than $1 million annually). Additionally, UConn has one of the most lucrative media rights agreement in the country with IMG. That agreement, encompassing sponsorship, radio, etc. dwarfs by a factor of 10 Rutgers' media rights deal, and pays out more $10 million a year. The UConn brand is so strong in Connecticut that Webster Bank just recently saw fit to strike what is rumored to be one of the most lucrative single entity sponsorship agreements ever with a university. As for UConn's national appeal, UConn's $45 million agreement with Nike is a tangible testament to that.
To the numbers.
Northern New Jersey portion of DMA
2,400,000 households, 2.16m television households
$.10 per subscriber=$216,000/month
$.40 per subscriber=$864,00/month
$.60 per subscriber=$1,296,000/month
$.80 per subscriber=$1,728,000/month
Compare to UConn and the Fairfield County portion of the NYC DMA.
Here, I am going to use three numbers. But first let me explain my reasoning. I don't know what the BTN would be able to command , so I will assume it will be at least equal to the BTN average; then I will assume $1.60, the average of the BTN footprint average and SNY's current charge of $2.40 per subscriber; and finally SNY's rate of $2.40.
Connecticut portion of NYC DMA
332,000 households, 299,000 television
299,000*.80=$239,200
299,000*$1.60=$478,400
299,000*2.40=$717,600
Will the BTN command 50% of its average in northern New Jersey? Just from looking at the carriage fight that the BTN had in Philly, that number is optimistic. And even at that number, it is about what the BTN would get for UConn in Fairfield County. $864,000 versus $717,000.
The numbers for the southern New Jersey portion of the Philly DMA
1,014,000 television households
1,014,000*.10=$101,400/month
1,014,000*.40=$405,600/month
1,014,000*.60=$608,400/month
1,014,000*.80=$911,200/month
Hartford-New Haven DMA
Number of television households:
Nielsen says 995,000 television households
995,000*.80=$796,000/month
995,000*1.60=$1,592,000/month
995,000*2.40=$2,388,000/month
Rutgers Total
Northern NJ portion of NYC DMA and southern NJ portion of Philly DMA
216,000+101,400=$317,400/month
864,000+405,600=$1,269,600/month
1,296,000+608,400=1,904,400/month
1,728,000+911,200=$2,639,200/month
UConn Total
Southwest CT portion of NYC DMA and Hartford-New Haven
239,200+796,000=$1,035,200/month
478,400+1,592,000=$2,070,000/month
717,600+2,388,000=3,100,000/month
So in a nutshell, if you take out the five boroughs and Long Island, UConn is more valuable to the Big Ten Network than Rutgers. As for how Delany expects the Big Ten Network to be received in New York City's five boroughs and Long Island? I seriously doubt that he will attempt to do so with one hand tied behind his back, which is what he would be facing with just Rutgers.
The Big Ten also makes money off of advertising, something close to 20% of its revenue.
As for national cable subscribers and whether UConn is more valuable there? At some point diluted content won't fly. UConn has a brand. Increasingly in football (10 years into the FBS subdivision and already two Big East championships and a BCS game. That's remarkable. Additionally, plans exist for an expansion of Rentschler Field to over 50,000 seats, as well as preliminary designs of an on-campus stadium first made when UConn was considering the FBS upgrade.) The brand is undeniable in basketball.
As for those who think that only football content matters, perhaps if you're the ACC schools and were forced through your commissioner to reward cronyism and Raycom, it does. But just as baseball is seeing blockbuster deals (Fox Sports, the same partner with the Big Ten has been very active there), what is king is having content that people want to watch and are willing to pay for. UConn's home state is blessed as being one of the most affluent in the country. It's willingness to pay for UConn content is not subject to debate. The Big Ten Network is a 365 day network. It would be well-served having a NYC area team that has a proven track record of delivering with results, not speculation.
TVN and Nielsen showing Hartford-New Haven DMA
http://www.tvnewscheck.com/tv-station-directory/station/wtic-tv
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=hartford dma nielsen&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CDoQFjAC&url=http://www.nielsen.com/content/dam/corporate/us/en/public%20factsheets/tv/2012-2013%20DMA%20Ranks.pdf&ei=NQPMUL_SLMqFywGqlYGAAg&usg=AFQjCNGi5qTPnYYTOONW5bhDOut-qP1dwA
There is conflicting data about the average that the BTN receives. One other source indicates the BTN receives $.97 in footprint states and $.06 nationally, but most cite $.80 and $.10.