44-3

[shizzle787]

That folks is the combined home record for UConn, Xavier, Providence, Marquette, and Creighton. That is brutal. Five other Big East teams have two home losses each, then you have Georgetown with six. Warren Nolan has our next game as our only remaining loss. We shall see. If we hold serve at home, I think we finish 27-4 or 28-3 (with losses to Creighton and/or Marquette on the road). This just highlights why Wednesday's game is so huge.

 

[Okafour rings]

That's very optimistic. Of the following games:
1/11 @Marquette
1/25 Xavier
2/7 Marquette
2/11 @Creighton
2/22 Providence
3/4 @ Villanova

we probably go 3-3. And just like we struggled to beat Georgetown at home, there will probably be 1 more game against one of the lower teams in the league (8 games in total) where we have a bad day and are upset. So that would give UConn a 25-6 record going into the Big East tournament. Avoiding that upset would put us at 26-5 and a 2/3 seed in the NCAA's.

 

[caw]

That's very optimistic. Of the following games:
1/11 @Marquette
1/25 Xavier
2/7 Marquette
2/11 @Creighton
2/22 Providence
3/4 @ Villanova

we probably go 3-3. And just like we struggled to beat Georgetown at home, there will probably be 1 more game against one of the lower teams in the league (8 games in total) where we have a bad day and are upset. So that would give UConn a 25-6 record going into the Big East tournament. Avoiding that upset would put us at 26-5 and a 2/3 seed in the NCAA's.

I get what you are saying but theoretically there should also be a game where UConn wins one it shouldn’t (if you are assuming they should lose three of those games).

Or there is always the possibility that “fluke” game comes in one of those three loss games, or UConn wins the fluke game anyway (Gtown).

 

[CardiacAndre7]

That's very optimistic. Of the following games:
1/11 @Marquette
1/25 Xavier
2/7 Marquette
2/11 @Creighton
2/22 Providence
3/4 @ Villanova

we probably go 3-3. And just like we struggled to beat Georgetown at home, there will probably be 1 more game against one of the lower teams in the league (8 games in total) where we have a bad day and are upset. So that would give UConn a 25-6 record going into the Big East tournament. Avoiding that upset would put us at 26-5 and a 2/3 seed in the NCAA's.

I don’t think a 26-5 team in a major conference would be a 3 seed this year. There’s no standout teams really, 26-5 should be a min 2 seed

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

I don’t think a 26-5 team in a major conference would be a 3 seed this year. There’s no standout teams really, 26-5 should be a min 2 seed

Agreed - could even be the last one seed. Lots of parity this year across the land.

 

[Billy Jack]

That's very optimistic. Of the following games:
1/11 @Marquette
1/25 Xavier
2/7 Marquette
2/11 @Creighton
2/22 Providence
3/4 @ Villanova

we probably go 3-3. And just like we struggled to beat Georgetown at home, there will probably be 1 more game against one of the lower teams in the league (8 games in total) where we have a bad day and are upset. So that would give UConn a 25-6 record going into the Big East tournament. Avoiding that upset would put us at 26-5 and a 2/3 seed in the NCAA's.

Now you’re being pessimistic. We probably go 5-1 in those 6 games.

 

[August_West]

That's very optimistic. Of the following games:
1/11 @Marquette
1/25 Xavier
2/7 Marquette
2/11 @Creighton
2/22 Providence
3/4 @ Villanova

we probably go 3-3. And just like we struggled to beat Georgetown at home, there will probably be 1 more game against one of the lower teams in the league (8 games in total) where we have a bad day and are upset. So that would give UConn a 25-6 record going into the Big East tournament. Avoiding that upset would put us at 26-5 and a 2/3 seed in the NCAA's.

You post those as if they are consecutive like our last 4 (+1 marq wednesday) .... seasons dont happen in 1 game vacuums. There is an ebb and a flow. You have to feel good about yourself and believe in yourself and it makes a difference the next game. Both ways/either way.

 

[Okafour rings]

Now you’re being pessimistic. We probably go 5-1 in those 6 games.

Are you still feeling like they go 5-1 after losing the first of those 6 games?

 

[Billy Jack]

Are you still feeling like they go 5-1 after losing the first of those 6 games?

No. 4-2.

 

[Okafour rings]

You post those as if they are consecutive like our last 4 (+1 marq wednesday) .... seasons dont happen in 1 game vacuums. There is an ebb and a flow. You have to feel good about yourself and believe in yourself and it makes a difference the next game. Both ways/either way.

This is true, but the team is in the doldrums right now, having lost 3 of 4 (albeit to good teams). They've got lots to fix to counter what the excellent Big East coaches have done both offensively and defensively to our team: Sanogo's issues when he's double/triple-teamed, opponents exploiting the high hedge with Sanogo and Hurley's insistence on guards overplaying the 3-pointers which severely weakens our 2-pt defense; Newton's play deteriorating against better competition; Calcaterra 4 for 20 from beyond the arc in the last 7 games; UConn's KenPom standings on Off/Def down to Off: 10th Def 10th when they were 7th/2nd just a couple of weeks ago.

It's going to take time to fix these issues so I'm sticking with my prediction of 25-26 wins.

 

[Billy Jack]

This is true, but the team is in the doldrums right now, having lost 3 of 4 (albeit to good teams). They've got lots to fix to counter what the excellent Big East coaches have done both offensively and defensively to our team:

I disagree that they have lots to fix. They lost these 3 games by an average of 9 points. That means that if a handful of plays had gone in the opposite direction, the outcome would have been different. That’s not a call for a major overhaul.

For example, our guys committed 27 fouls in the PC game, 8 above their season average. If they dial it back, then they force PC to have to make shots. To compound the situation, PC made 83% of their FTs in that game when they normally hit 73% of their FTs. So, they really took advantage of those FT opportunities that we gave them. Just by reverting to their normal FT%, they would have scored 4 fewer points. And we shot only 56% from the line when we normally shoot 74%. That’s another 4 points. If both teams had simply shot their season normal on uncontested FTs, it would have been a 4 point margin instead of 12 points. Combine that with fouling less and it’s a whole different game. The take from this game is that they have to work on playing tough defense without fouling so much.

Same thing in the Xavier game. We shot only 44% from the line, they shot 82% when their normal is 73%. If both teams revert to normal, it’s 3 more points for us, 3 less for them and now it’s a 4 point margin instead of 10. X committed only 9 fouls vs their normal of 17. Change that and you change the outcome of the game.

I focused on free throws because FT shooting is not something that should fluctuate with how the game is played. They are uncontested shots, so a team should pretty consistently hit at about the same rate from one game to the next.

The Marquette game was more complicated because there wasn’t an aberration that is likely to change simply by things reverting to normal. But we did beat ourselves with 16 turnovers, which is not like us. Marquette does that to teams and Shake’s been teaching that same havoc defense for more than 10 years. Marquette is top 40 in the country at forcing turnovers. But it’s something we have control over. Having experienced it once, we should be better prepared next time. When a team turns the ball over it’s beating itself by giving the other team more scoring opportunities and reducing their own. Let’s hope that we don’t beat ourselves again. After all, this was just a 6 point game and it wouldn’t have taken a lot to get a different result.

All of this says to me that a major overhaul is not needed. Instead we need to focus on little things which will result in different outcomes.

 

[gtcam]

I disagree that they have lots to fix. They lost these 3 games by an average of 9 points. That means that if a handful of plays had gone in the opposite direction, the outcome would have been different. That’s not a call for a major overhaul.

For example, our guys committed 27 fouls in the PC game, 8 above their season average. If they dial it back, then they force PC to have to make shots. To compound the situation, PC made 83% of their FTs in that game when they normally hit 73% of their FTs. So, they really took advantage of those FT opportunities that we gave them. Just by reverting to their normal FT%, they would have scored 4 fewer points. And we shot only 56% from the line when we normally shoot 74%. That’s another 4 points. If both teams had simply shot their season normal on uncontested FTs, it would have been a 4 point margin instead of 12 points. Combine that with fouling less and it’s a whole different game. The take from this game is that they have to work on playing tough defense without fouling so much.

Same thing in the Xavier game. We shot only 44% from the line, they shot 82% when their normal is 73%. If both teams revert to normal, it’s 3 more points for us, 3 less for them and now it’s a 4 point margin instead of 10. X committed only 9 fouls vs their normal of 17. Change that and you change the outcome of the game.

I focused on free throws because FT shooting is not something that should fluctuate with how the game is played. They are uncontested shots, so a team should pretty consistently hit at about the same rate from one game to the next.

The Marquette game was more complicated because there wasn’t an aberration that is likely to change simply by things reverting to normal. But we did beat ourselves with 16 turnovers, which is not like us. Marquette does that to teams and Shake’s been teaching that same havoc defense for more than 10 years. Marquette is top 40 in the country at forcing turnovers. But it’s something we have control over. Having experienced it once, we should be better prepared next time. When a team turns the ball over it’s beating itself by giving the other team more scoring opportunities and reducing their own. Let’s hope that we don’t beat ourselves again. After all, this was just a 6 point game and it wouldn’t have taken a lot to get a different result.

All of this says to me that a major overhaul is not needed. Instead we need to focus on little things which will result in different outcomes.

I understand your hypotheticals in games already played but unfortunately it doesn’t change the real outcome. There are specific reasons why UConn lost those games and in all it wasn’t one issue but many. So yes, UConn has a lot of adjustments to make going forward. It starts with coaching, the team simply isn’t adjusting to the opponent’s tactics. The team also needs a real floor leader. Some players are playing hesitantly and maybe scared. Time to pull the big boy pants on and get mean.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

I disagree that they have lots to fix. They lost these 3 games by an average of 9 points. That means that if a handful of plays had gone in the opposite direction, the outcome would have been different. That’s not a call for a major overhaul.

For example, our guys committed 27 fouls in the PC game, 8 above their season average. If they dial it back, then they force PC to have to make shots. To compound the situation, PC made 83% of their FTs in that game when they normally hit 73% of their FTs. So, they really took advantage of those FT opportunities that we gave them. Just by reverting to their normal FT%, they would have scored 4 fewer points. And we shot only 56% from the line when we normally shoot 74%. That’s another 4 points. If both teams had simply shot their season normal on uncontested FTs, it would have been a 4 point margin instead of 12 points. Combine that with fouling less and it’s a whole different game. The take from this game is that they have to work on playing tough defense without fouling so much.

Same thing in the Xavier game. We shot only 44% from the line, they shot 82% when their normal is 73%. If both teams revert to normal, it’s 3 more points for us, 3 less for them and now it’s a 4 point margin instead of 10. X committed only 9 fouls vs their normal of 17. Change that and you change the outcome of the game.

I focused on free throws because FT shooting is not something that should fluctuate with how the game is played. They are uncontested shots, so a team should pretty consistently hit at about the same rate from one game to the next.

The Marquette game was more complicated because there wasn’t an aberration that is likely to change simply by things reverting to normal. But we did beat ourselves with 16 turnovers, which is not like us. Marquette does that to teams and Shake’s been teaching that same havoc defense for more than 10 years. Marquette is top 40 in the country at forcing turnovers. But it’s something we have control over. Having experienced it once, we should be better prepared next time. When a team turns the ball over it’s beating itself by giving the other team more scoring opportunities and reducing their own. Let’s hope that we don’t beat ourselves again. After all, this was just a 6 point game and it wouldn’t have taken a lot to get a different result.

All of this says to me that a major overhaul is not needed. Instead we need to focus on little things which will result in different outcomes.

NOTE: The average college basketball game has a point difference of about 9 points. So, most of our P6 games fit into that difference whether we win or lose. Most often, the game is decided by a handful of plays.