UConn vs Duke Game Preview
#1 UConn at #2 Duke
Cameron Indoor Stadium
Tuesday December 17, 7:00 Cameron Indoor Stadium
Television – ESPN2, Radio – WTIC AM
Records UConn 10-0, Duke 10-0.
Overall series is 10-3 in favor of UConn. More recently, Duke and UConn have met the last 4 years and the results have been overwhelmingly in UConn’s favor.
2009-10 UConn 81 Duke 48
2010-11 UConn 87 Duke 51
2011-12 UConn 61 Duke 45
2012-13 UConn 79 Duke 49
Overview
Battle of the unbeaten’s. Both teams are coming off extended layoffs. UConn last played against UC Davis in Hartford, a 60 point win. Duke is coming off a well earn victory over 19th ranked Oklahoma.
Last year, UConn and Duke played a very close game….for the first half. UConn turned the ball over in the first half 12 times, the main reason for the game being that close. UConn turned it on in the second half going on a 20-5 run in the first 8 minutes. Duke struggled the rest of the way and UConn played a solid 2nd half. Faris was the catalyst in this win, with an 18 point, 12 rebound and 6 assist game. But her contribution was more than just numbers. She was all over the place, taking charges, getting to loose balls. Stewart had her coming out party in the 2nd half as well. She scored 13 points in 13 second half minutes after a scoreless first half. KML scored 21 to lead UConn Duke was lead by Jones with 14 points. UConn took Gray totally out of the game, holding her to 1-6 shooting with 4 TO’s.
Both UConn and Duke have played some good teams, although Dukes schedule is not as top heavy as UConn’s. UConn has beaten PSU (#13), Stanford (#3) and Maryland (#8) by double digits. Duke beat then #9 California, and in their last two games Purdue (#16) and Oklahoma (#17).
UConn Starting Lineup
| G Bria Hartley SR 5’9 | 31.6 mpg, 15.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 5.6 apg |
| G Moriah Jefferson SO 5’7” | 27.8 mpg, 11.2 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 4.0 apg |
| F/C Breana Stewart SO 6’4” | 27.6 mpg, 17.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.1 apg |
| F Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis JR 6′ | 20.5 mpg, 10.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, .5 apg |
| C Stefanie Dolson SR 6’5” | 32.1 mpg, 14.5 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 4.0 apg |
UConn Bench
| G Briana Banks JR 5’9” | 21.6 mpg, 6.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.7 apg |
| C/F Kia Stokes JR 6’3” | 23.0 mpg, 8.2 ppg, 9 rpg, .4 apg |
| G Sanyia Chong FR 5’9” | 23.0 mpg, 7.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.0 apg |
| F Morgan Tuck SO 6’2” | 15.0 mpg, 8.5 ppg. 3.5 rpg |
| G Tierney Lawlor | 9.2 mpg, 4.0 ppg, .7 rpg, .3 apg |
Duke Starting Lineup
| G Chelsey Gray SR 5’11” | 28.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 8.4 apg |
| G Alexis Jones SO 5’8” | 28.6 mpg, 14.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.9 apg |
| G Tricia Liston SR 6’1” | 28.5 mpg, 18.3 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.4 apg |
| F Haley Peters SR 6’3” | 17.5 mpg, 13 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 1.5 apg |
| C Elizabeth Williams JR 6’3” | 26.4 mpg, 13.8 ppg, 6 rpg, 1.4 apg |
Duke Bench
| G Cloe Wells 5’7” SR | 13 mpg, 5.2 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 2.2 apg |
| F Richa Jackson 6′ SR | 17.3 mpg, 6.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg, .6 apg |
| F/C Oderah Chidom 6’4” FR | 15.6 mpg, 6.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, .5 apg |
| F Kendall M-Cooper 6’4” FR | 8.8 mpg, 1.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg, .1 apg |
| F Amber Henson 6’4” RSFR | 7.8 mpg, .9 ppg, .2 rpg, .1 apg |
| F Ka’Lia Johnson 5’10” JR | 7.3 mpg, 2.5 ppg, 2 rpg, .2 apg |
| UConn | Duke | |
| Scoring Offense | 87.3 (8) | 89.5 (6) |
| Scoring Defense | 47.5 (3) | 60.6 (64) |
| Scoring Margin | 39.8 (1) | 28.9 (9) |
| Field Goal % | 52.4 (1) | 51.5 (3) |
| Field Goal % Defense | 31.2 (4) | 34.9 (43) |
| Free Throw % | 72.9 (73) | 69.2 (149) |
| Rebound Margin | 9.9 (26) | 13.5 (8) |
| 3pt FG Per Game | 7.2 (50) | 6.5 (87) |
| 3 point % | 35.1 (59) | 43.9 (4) |
| Assists Per Game | 22 (3) | 19.7 (11) |
| Blocked Shots Per Game | 8.8 (1) | 6.1 (13) |
| Steals Per Game | 9.6 (72) | 12.1 (17) |
| TO Per Game | 10.6 (3) | 17.9 (231) |
| Personal Fouls Per Game | 11.5 (1) | 18.9 (137) |
| 3 pt FG Defense | 25 (28) | 33.3 (247) |
| Turnover Margin | 7.5 (12) | 3.6 (58) |
| Assist Turnover Ratio | 2.08 (1) | 1.1 (49) |
Stat analysis
These are two high scoring efficient teams on offense. While Duke has a higher percentage made on 3’s, they don’t take or make as many as UConn Where the difference shows up is in the defensive stats. UConn dominates in that regard. Another area to look for is foul issues. UConn has shown they have a handle on the new rules averaging only 11.5 fouls vs 18.9 for Duke. While Duke has assists on many of their baskets, 40% of them are by one player. TO’s could be a big part of this game as well. UConn takes care of the ball much better than Duke does. They both are weak on FT’s. Should be interesting if we have a close game. Defensively, it’s really not close. UConn is 3rd in scoring defense, 4th in FG% defense and 1st in block shots while Duke is 64th in scoring defense, 43rd in FG% defense.
Game analysis
Lineups – UConn has played the last 8 games without Tuck and KML reducing them to a 7 player rotation. Those 7 players did a remarkable job staying out of foul trouble also showing what great conditioning they have and were able to defeat 3 top 15 teams by double digits at times, making it looks easy. It appears to me at the time I am writing this that both KML and Tuck will be available for minutes against Duke. Even if they only play 15-20 minutes each, it gives Geno a lot more options in his rotation. Duke has a deep roster, but on closer examination in a game like this, they are not as deep as Uconn. Their starting 5 averages double digit scoring each, but after that it’s a guess on what they will get from the bench. I’m sure that Wells and Jackson will get minutes but they are a notch lower in talent level while Uconn loses little when they go to the bench. If they want any size off the bench, they will have to look for minutes from the 3 freshman. Chidom has seen some good minutes, but I’m not sure Duke can expect much from the other posts.
UConn offense vs Duke defense – Duke looked to me like they were playing a match-up zone for most of the Oklahoma game. They will not be able to handle UConn man to man. Connecticut is too quick at every position and too big in the post. Here is where Gray being less than 100% impacts Duke the most. She really looked hobbled in her last game, just willing herself to positions on the floor. She can do that against Oklahoma, but she will be a weak link on the defensive end against UConn Against the match-up zone or any other zone Duke plays, UConn will have to do a couple of things. Shoot the open 3 well (at least 35 their season average) and drive and dish to open players. Look for a lot of big to big high low plays. Uconn’s precise passing game will give Duke fits. Only Gray and Jones have quick enough hands to disrupt it.
Duke offense vs UConn Defense – UConn will play their usual man to man and with their quickness advantage, Duke could struggle in getting the open shots they are used to. In the Oklahoma game, I saw several drives to the basket that Dolson, Stewart or Stokes will block or alter. And while Duke does shoot well from 3, they just don’t shoot it that often. Duke relies on Gray and Jones to initiate the offense, finding Liston, Peters or each other for open shots. Peters likes to back in her defender and make post moves. With either Dolson or Stewart defending her, she will struggle with that part of her game. UConn will have to stay with their man, especially Liston. She is deadly when open up to 25 feet out. Jones has the foot speed to create her own shot against UConn but other than Gray using her big body to back into the lane, Jones is the only player that can create her own shot.
Final prediction
So, will this game be any different than last years game? If KML and Tuck are out, it could be closer. But if they are playing it’s hard to see how it isn’t a similar outcome. Duke is basically the same players, with the addition of a few freshman posts. While Jones and Liston have taken the next step in their game improvement, Gray really looked like she was struggling. She is so strong that she can overcome her gimpyness and still produce great numbers. Her court vision is as good as it gets. But she will be a liability on the defensive end of the floor. Duke has controlled the boards this year so far. Can they do that against UConn? Doubtful. They only outrebounded a much smaller Oklahoma team by 2. If you look at the last 4 games these teams have met, Duke hasn’t score more than 51 points. Will that hold true for this game? Maybe. I can see Duke getting into the 60’s. But if Purdue can score 78 points and Oklahoma can score 85 points, I don’t see how Duke holds UConn to under 90. UConn is too big and too fast for Duke.
Look for a 20+ win for Connecticut.
by 
