UConn-Stanford Game Preview

by doggydaddy

UConn vs Stanford
NCAA Semi-Final
Sunday, 8:30 Nashville, Tennessee
TV – ESPN

Records UConn 38-0, Stanford 33-3

NCAA Tournament results to date

UConn 87 Prairie View A&M 44
UConn 91 Saint Joseph’s 52
UConn 70 BYU 51
UConn Texas 79 A&M 54

Stanford 81 South Dakota 62
Stanford 63 Florida State 44
Stanford 82 Penn State 57
Stanford 74 UNC 65

Overview

UConn and Stanford are meeting for the 16th time with the series in favor of UConn, 9-6. UConn is 1-3 in Maples, 3-1 at home and 5-2 at neutral sites.

NCAA tournament: UConn 3-2.

1994-95 NCAA Connecticut Final Four Semi Minneapolis UConn 87 Stanford 60
2004-05 NCAA Connecticut KC Reg. Semi Kansas City Stanford 76 UConn 59
2007-08 NCAA Connecticut Final Four Semi Tampa Bay Stanford 82 UConn 73
2008-09 NCAA Connecticut Final Four Semi St. Louis UConn 83 Stanford 64
2009-10 NCAA Connecticut Final Four Final San Antonio UConn 53 Stanford 47

The good news is that we have a previous meeting of these two teams this season to use as an indication of how the game might go. The bad news is both teams met in November and are not the same team as they were when they met so we have no clue how this meeting will go. That never stopped me before.

The first meeting was won by UConn 76-57.

I did watch that game today while on the treadmill via ESPN3. Love that they still have that available.

Hartley led UConn with 20 points, eight rebounds and six assists. Stokes had her best game of the season with 10 points, 13 rebounds and six blocks. Orrange scored a career-high 22 points to lead the Cardinal. Ogwumike added 16 points and 13 rebounds. Neither team could find the basket early on. The score was 2-2 with 13:30 left in the first half before Chong hit two consecutive 3 pointers to get UConn going. They battled back and forth before KML hit a corner 3 to give UConn a 13 point lead at the half. KML was injured a few minutes into the 2nd half and spanning minutes before and after the injury UConn went on a 22-6 run opening a 21 point lead. Morgan Tuck scored eight straight points, including two 3-pointers. Boy, she was terrific. With her, UConn would have the best bench in WCBB. I know this because it would be better than Notre Dame’s.

A couple of quotes from that game:
“I think this kind of let our team know we’re 20 points away,” Stanford coach Tara VanDerveer said. “How do you make that up? We gave up too many ‘O’ boards for baskets. We sent them to free throw line for no reason. We need to do little things correctly and focus on that for the rest of the season.”

“It seems like these three games are not exactly teams that are going to let you do what you want to do. It’s difficult. Maybe it’s supposed to be difficult,” Auriemma said. “Last year was very easy at the beginning. We went down won by a bunch and everything was going smoothly. This one’s not going to go smoothly. This one is hard.”

It’s interesting that I haven’t mentioned Stewart and Jefferson yet. They really didn’t contribute much in this game. Stewart had two quick fouls and only played 4 minutes in the first half. She ended up with 9 points and 0-2 on 3’s (must be her elbow location), 4 rebounds and 2 turnovers. Not exactly POY material early in the season. Jefferson was 1-7 from the field, 0-3 on 3’s, 2 assists and 2 turnovers. Both played only 17 minutes. I can’t say enough about Stokes effort in this game. Defensively she was fabulous. Her rebounding was ferocious. When Stewart was out, she was more offensive minded. Hopefully we will see more of that next year.

UConn Starting Lineup

14 G Bria Hartley	SR 5’9”	31.6 mpg, 16.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 4.4 apg
5 G Moriah Jefferson	SO 5’7”	29.0 mpg, 10.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.9 apg
30 F/C Breana Stewart	SO 6’4”	29.9 mpg, 19.7 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 3.1 apg
23 F Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis	JR 6′	27.9 mpg, 12.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.6 apg
31 C Stefanie Dolson	SR 6’5”	31.0 mpg, 12.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 3.4 apg

UConn Bench

41 C/F Kia Stokes	JR 6’3”	18.8 mpg, 4.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 0.9 apg
13 G Briana Banks	JR 5’9”	15.8 mpg, 3.9 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.4 apg
12 G Sanyia Chong	FR 5’9”	18.9 mpg, 5.2 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.7 apg

Stanford Starting Lineup

13 F Chiney Ogwumike	JR 6’4”	33.7 mpg, 26.4 ppg, 12.1 rpg, 1.6 apg
3 F Mikaela Ruef	RSR 6’3”	29.1 mpg, 7.1 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 3.3 apg
33 G Amber Orrange	JR 5’7”	31.8 mpg, 10.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.5 apg
1 G Lil Thompson	FR 5’7”	24.6 mpg, 8.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.7 apg
41 F Bonnie Samuelson	JR 6’3”	14.9 mpg, 7.4 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 1.0 apg

Stanford Bench

4 F Taylor Greenfeld

JR 6’3”

16.9 mpg, 5.4 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.5 apg

Game Analysis

No one is surprised that these two teams are meeting in the semi-final game at the Final Four. Tara is not a HOF coach for nothing. She knows how to find the best combinations and get the most out of them.

Let’s start with Stanford and what is different than the first meeting. In November, Tara started Greene and Johnson, two players who didn’t start after this game and were not part of the regular rotation. Tara has been starting James, a Senior guard, but then pulling her after a few minutes like Geno did many times with Dolson. Lately, Tara has been bringing in Lili Thompson who really is getting starter minute. The Cardinal played only 5 ½ players against UNC with Greenwell getting 8 minutes and the other 5 players getting 35+. Very similar to UConn. In the first match-up, the freshman forward McCall also played 16 minutes. She won’t see any time in this game.

Offensively, I would expect Stanford to try to get Chiney off the block quickly and maybe draw an early foul on Dolson. They have been shooting quite a few 3’s and were terrific against UNC from deep. Prior to this game, in the last 11, they were shooting around 30% on 3’s. They will probably use Ruef on the outside. She is a very good passer and can hit the 3 pointer. If Stewart is guarding her it will be tough to Ruef to get her shot off. She has not played well against UConn. Orrange is the second best player and she will get her points and assists. She is quick to the basket and being left handed, very deceptive. Her 3 point shot has been consistent this year. Samuelson has been seeing more minutes as has Thompson. Of all the freshman, it looks like she is the only one Tara trusts.

Defensively, Stanford will play mostly man-to-man defense. They have been throwing in a zone on occasion, but with so many shooter on UConn, it’s risky. I was stunned watching the earlier game with how they defended Jefferson. They didn’t guard her on the perimeter. She missed three 3 pointers and didn’t take several other open opportunities She also didn’t drive hard to the basket enough and when she did, she didn’t finish strong. The contrast to MoJet, the player we see now, is startling. Stanford plays smart and tough defense. I would expect anything different in this game.

On offense, UConn will play their usual motion type offense. Screens, cutting hard to the basket, dishing back out for open 3’s. I don’t think they will have any special plans for Stanford. For UConn it will all be about making shots. They will get more than their share of open looks. I also fully expect that UConn will be doing a lot of “turning defense into offense” with steals and blocks. Hartley and Jefferson will be looking to run at every opportunity. In the first match-up, Hartley was all over the place. KML is back and playing her best ball of the season. 1st team AA type play. Stewart is really a tough match-up for Stanford. If they cover her with Ruef, Stewart will drive by the slower player and run circles around her. If they cover her with Chiney, Stewart can bring her away from the basket giving Dolson and KML offensive rebounding opportunities. And back to Jefferson. It’s doubtful that Stanford will play the same defense on her. If they do, it will be interesting to see how Jefferson reacts. Will she take the open three or drive to the hoop? I can tell you she did neither in the earlier game and Geno was not happy (thus the 17 minutes). Look for a very aggressive Jefferson.

Defensively, UConn will pressure the ball, trying to prevent the guards from having easy entry passes to Chiney. UConn is lucky in that they have 2 defenders that can cover Chiney 1-1 in Dolson and Stokes. And I do believe we will see plenty of Stokes in this game. With UConn playing Chiney straight up, the guards can pressure the ball and funnel the ball handlers to the shot blockers. Chiney will get plenty of shots, but her percentage has not been very good against Dolson ET AL. Stanford can score when they dominate the boards. UConn is probably too big to let that happen. UConn will also throw in a zone on occasion. But if Samuelson or even Greenfield hit s few open three’s it won’t last long.

Final prediction

I have watched 4 hours of Stanford basketball between last nights game and the first UConn game. While they are playing a few different players, I don’t see that much difference in how they played then and how they play now. They rely on Chiney. They need her to get her 25-15. And they need her to do it efficiently. I’m not sure that can happen against this UConn team. They were able to get what they wanted in the 2nd half against UNC, but those young players really showed their inexperience. Now, any team with a player like Chiney is dangerous. And Orrange as Stanford’s secondary scoring option is the real deal. After that, they have good but not great players.

UConn has won their last two games by 19 and 15 points. They had a tougher time against BYU and Texas A&M than most expected. Some individual performances were not as good as past play. Specifically Stewart. Now it wasn’t that she was terrible, she just wasn’t dominating. So what can we expect from UConn on Sunday? It’s all about making shots. If UConn is reasonably good from deep, Stanford is in big trouble. I think the new arena, final four environment will spur UConn on to a great performance as a team. Their defense will be too tough for Stanford and the Cardinal will struggle to get to 60. UConn will hit enough shots to make it to the 70’s. These games are always tough, so I’ll go with a 15-20 point win.

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