UConn-SMU Game Preview
UConn (23-0, 10-0 AAC) vs SMU (14-7, 5-5 AAC)
Tuesday, February 4, 2014 7:00 pm
Gampel Pavilion, Storrs CT
SNY & ESPN3
Probable Starters
UConn Huskies
| #4 Moriah Jefferson | 5-7 G, So | 10.0 pts | 5.3 asst | 2.9 reb |
| #14 Bria Hartley | 5-10 G, Sr | 15.7 pts | 4.7 asst | 3.4 reb |
| #23 Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis | 6-0 F, Jr | 12.5 pts | 2.1 asst | 4.3 reb |
| #30 Breanna Stewart | 6-4 F, So | 19.2 pts | 3.0 asst | 7.9 reb |
| #31 Stefanie Dolson | 6-5 C, Sr | 15.7 pts | 4.7 asst | 9.3 reb |
Other Key Players
| #13 Brianna Banks | 5-9 G, Jr | 4.8 pts | 3.5 asst | 1.8 reb |
| #41 Kiah Stokes | 6-3 C, Jr | 5.2 pts | 0.8 asst | 7.5 reb |
| #12 Saniya Chong | 5-8 G, Fr | 5.9 pts | 1.7 asst | 1.9 reb |
SMU
| #23 Keena Mays | 5-7 G, Sr | 20.1 pts | 4.1 asst | 5.7 reb |
| #10 Korina Baker | 5-7 G, Sr | 5.9 pts | 3.6 asst | 2.1 reb |
| #00 Kiara Perry | 5-10 G, Fr | 8.4 pts | 2.0 asst | 5.0 reb |
| #5 Akil Simpson | 6-0 F, Sr | 14.2 pts | 0.8 asst | 8.2 reb |
| #44 Mallory Singleton | 6-2 F, Sr | 5.2 pts | 1.9 asst | 4.4 reb |
Other Key Players
| #3 Gabrielle Wilkins | 5-9 G, So | 7.1 pts | 1.5 asst | 3.8 reb |
| #32 Raven Short | 5-11 G, RJr | 3.3 pts | 0.8 asst | 3.5 reb |
| #25 Krystal Johnson | 5-5 G, Sr | 1.5 pts | 0.9 asst | 0.7 reb |
Overview
Apparently Conference-USA was a guard oriented league as yet another team, this time SMU, is loaded with guards, not so much with forwards. There are currently nine players on the SMU roster available to play but only eight see notable time on the court and of those eight, six are guards, one is a forward, and one is listed as a post. Believe it or not, there are two more guards that have transferred from other schools sitting out the NCAA-mandated year.
This is an experienced team, though. Five of the eight players in the regular rotation are seniors and there are one each of the remaining classes. The experience has served the Mustangs well, as the team stands at 14-7 overall, even if they are a middle-of-the-pack team in the AAC at 5-5.
You need to remember the name Keena Mays. An All-Conference preseason pick, Mays leads her team in scoring, assists, steals, three point attempts, three point field goal percentage, free throw attempts, and minutes played. She is an exciting player that can take over a game therefore she will be the focus of UConn’s defense, but she will be tough to guard. Mays went 3-13 in SMU’s first game against Louisville but still managed to score 14 points. She blew up for 20 points in the teams’ second match up.
She does get some assistance from senior forward Akil Simpson. Simpson is the team’s best rebounder and she’s corralled 71 offensive rebounds (Breanna Stewart, UConn’s leading offensive rebounder, has 55) so the Huskies will need to put a body on her. Simpson is foul-prone, though, and has fouled out five times in 21 games. It will be important to put Simpson on the bench, if possible, because she is the go-to player SMU will look for if Mays is having problems scoring. The Huskies have an advantage in the paint; they need to right at Simpson and get her in foul trouble. Without her, SMU’s other main post player is 6-2 senior Mallory Singleton. Singleton doesn’t appear to be much of a scoring threat, but she’s a steady presence in the post.
Another senior, Korina Baker, is the other primary threat besides Mays to take a shot from the perimeter. She only makes 25% but we’ve seen – too many times – a UConn opponent with limited success from the arc goes off for some new career high. The guards will need to be on their toes because while Mays and Baker are the primary threats, every player on the team but Simpson can shoot threes. Well, I don’t know that she can’t, but she hasn’t attempted a three all year and why should she when she makes 56% of her two point attempts?
SMU has some good shooters on its roster. Simpson leads the team in field goal percentage and Mays shoots 43%, almost 38% from three. As a team, the Mustangs make 41% of their shots. However, they allow opponents to make 39% of their shots – against the 77th ranked strength of schedule. SMU’s average margin of victory is 4.0 points per game and that was padded by blowouts of Southeastern Louisiana (82-39) and Mississippi Valley State (91-52).
I am impressed with SMU’s assists. The Mustangs have 342 assists on 545 made baskets (62.8%). Unfortunately for them, they also have 327 turnovers with Keena Mays leading the way. She has 87 assists to 74 TOs for a 1.2 assist to turnover ratio. (an assist to TO ratio of 2.0 is considered pretty good) Again, the UConn guards will need to be alert in order to disrupt the passing lanes and stall the SMU offense.
Speaking of assist to turnover ratio, Moriah Jefferson is tied for #6 in the country with a 3.25 A:TO ratio which beats Diana Taurasi’s 2.51 sophomore average (research courtesy of John Altavilla).
Bottom Line
SMU is certainly not a bad team. It passes well and will test UConn’s defense, especially on the perimeter. But once again, UConn will be able to dominate in the paint with the most fearsome frontcourt in the country. As long as the guards are able to slow down Mays and if the post players can make life miserable for Simpson, I’m not sure SMU has the horses to pull off the upset with the remaining players on the roster. This could be another game where Nervous Nellies will be yelling at the TV for the first 10 minutes or so but I expect UConn to prevail by a comfortable margin.
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