UConn-Oregon Game Preview
UConn (4-0, 0-0) vs Oregon (2-1, 0-0 Pac 12)
Wednesday, November 20, 2013, 7:00 pm
XL Center, Hartford CT
Probable Starters
UConn Huskies
| #4 Moriah Jefferson | 5-7 G, So | 10.0 pts | 3.3 asst |
1.8 reb |
| #14 Bria Hartley | 5-10 G, Sr | 16.3 pts | 4.8 asst | 4.5 reb |
| #30 Breanna Stewart | 6-4 F, So | 15.8 pts | 1.5 asst | 5.0 reb |
| #41 Kiah Stokes | 6-3 F, Jr | 3.8 pts | 0.5 asst | 8.5 reb |
| #31 Stefanie Dolson | 6-5 C, Sr | 9.5 pts | 3.0 asst | 8.5 reb |
Other Key Players
| #13 Brianna Banks | 5-9 G, Jr | 3.5 pts | 1.3 asst |
1.8 reb |
| #12 Saniya Chong | 5-8 G, Fr | 7.5 pts | 1.8 asst | 2.8 reb |
Oregon Ducks
| #22 Ariel Thomas | 5-6 G, Sr | 11.3 pts | 2.7 asst | 4.3 reb |
| #21 Chrishae Rowe | 5-10 G, Fr | 25.7 pts | .7 asst | 8.3 reb |
| #31 Katelyn Loper | 5-11 G, R-Jr | 20.0 pts | 1.0 asst | 4.0 reb |
| #2 Danielle Love | 6-2 F, Sr | 5.3 pts | 1.7 asst | 9.0 reb |
| #14 Jillian Alleyne | 6-3 F, So | 18.7 pts | 2.3 asst | 12.3 reb |
Other Key Players
| #1 Drea Toler | 5-5 G, Fr | 7.3 pts | 3.7 asst |
3.0 reb |
| #3 Laura Stanulis | 5-9 G, R-Sr | 4.7 pts | 4.7 asst | 1.7 reb |
Oregon is a very unusual team. There are two point guards, Laura Stanulis and Drea Toler, but so far neither one of them have started a game. Both were harassed into multiple turnovers in the Duck’s last game against Sacramento State due to a press that caused massive problems for the high-octane Oregon offense. Toler is only a freshman and Stanulis is still getting back to her game after suffering an injury last season. It may be fortunate for Oregon that UConn isn’t at full strength because the press could have been a devastating weapon for the Huskies. I doubt we’ll see a lot of pressing, though, as it’s physically demanding and the UConn bench is short.
At first glance, the stats for the Ducks seem eye popping. Two players average over 20 points; four have scoring averages in the double digits. One player, forward Jillian Alleyne, has Tina Charles-like numbers, averaging 18.7 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. Wow! This is a high scoring team, averaging – get this – 109.7 points per game. It looks like the Huskies and their measly 77.0 points per game would be in big trouble, but not so fast. Yes, Oregon has scored in bunches, including a 131 point output in its first game, but the Ducks have allowed opponents to average 91.3 points reminding me that Geno Auriemma once famously said of the Pac 10, “First team to 100 wins”.
The big scoring numbers shouldn’t be a huge surprise given that Oregon is coached by Paul Westhead, a coach famous for his run-and-gun style so successfully instituted during his tenure with the Phoenix Mercury. Another Philly guy with connections to St. Joseph’s, Westhead has become a friend of Geno’s.
Jillian Alleyne is Oregon’s go-to player and she has a range of skills much like Stefanie Dolson. She leads Oregon in field goal percentage and rebounds and has a high number of assists, especially for a forward. She doesn’t have the perimeter skills of Dolson (or if she does, hasn’t used them) and may struggle to defend Dolson outside of the paint. That is, if she plays. Unfortunately, Alleyne suffered what appeared to be a serious leg injury in the Sacramento State game and her availability was unknown as of Monday. Hopefully it’s nothing serious.
Alleyne, the reigning Pac 12 Freshman of the Year, isn’t the high scorer for Oregon. That would be freshman Chrishae Rowe. Rowe may be a guard, but she takes the “shooting” part of shooting guard seriously as opposed to passing. That’s why she has 21 shot attempts per game vs only 2 assists total in her three games played. She’s a threat on defense and is tied for the team lead in steals, with 6 in three games. She also leads her team in fouls and this young player is tied with another freshman, Drea Toler, in turnovers. Having experienced senior Bria Hartley in her face could throw Rowe off her game enough to disrupt Oregon’s offense.
Katelyn Loper is another player, this one a guard, that scores in bunches. She, along with Rowe, will take the majority of the Duck’s three point attempts and they’re both really good shooters from the perimeter. Rowe makes 39% and Loper makes 41% from beyond the arc. Loper does seem to be a three point specialist; 37 of her 43 shot attempts are threes.
Another player to watch for is senior forward Danielle Love. She averages the most minutes per game at 31 even though she’s not a big scorer (5.3 ppg). Last year she was the leading three point FG% shooter and as a sophomore she was named an All-Pac 10 honoree. Her stats don’t tell us much; she could be one of those players whose value isn’t measured in box score stats, much like Kelly Faris.
Summary
The last time the Huskies lost to a Pac 12 team not named Stanford was a 61-50 loss to Arizona State on December 21, 2004. Before that was a 76-60 loss to Cal on November 24, 1991. Before that was, um, never. And make no mistake, for all its scoring prowess, Oregon is no Stanford. I can’t imagine Stanford giving up 91, 86, and 97 points in its first three games no matter the competition.
Last year UConn beat an injury-riddled Oregon 95-51 in Eugene OR with six Huskies scoring in double figures. Breanna Stewart was not one of those six; she was 1-5 with 4 points and 2 rebounds. Stefanie Dolson scored 16 points in 22 minutes while Kiah Stokes did not play. Stewart and Stokes are different players this year. Those three should be able to exert their collective will on the shorter/less experienced/rusty (from injuries) frontline of the Ducks.
Oregon will shoot the ball – a lot. In three games this season, the Ducks have taken 266 field goal attempts. That’s just shy of 89 shots a game. Oh, they do make a lot of them, 40.6% to be exact, but one wonders if games against Bakersfield, Portland, and Sacramento State prepared the Ducks for UConn’s defense. UConn’s guards will do what they do with the disruption of the Oregon offense but the game will be won in the post. Oregon’s three point defense is pretty good and I expect pressure on UConn’s shooters. The Oregon players seem foul prone, or perhaps are having problems adjust to the new rules, but either way, they’ve been called for over 23 fouls per game this year. If the UConn frontcourt players have their game faces on, they could live at the free throw line on Wednesday.
I’ll leave the predictions to doggydaddy, but I expect a comfortable UConn win in the cozy confines of the XL Center.
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