by doggdaddy
#1 UConn at #7 Baylor
Ferrell Center – Waco, Texas
Monday January 13, 7:00
Television – ESPN2, Radio – WTIC AM
Records UConn 17-0, Baylor 14-1.
Overall series is 2-2.
4/4/10 UConn 70 Baylor 50
11/16/10 UConn 65 Baylor 64
12/18/11 Baylor 66 UConn 61
2/18/13 Baylor 76 UConn 70
Overview
As noted above, Uconn has met Baylor in each of the last four years. I guess you can call them the Brittany Griner years. UConn and the senior Tina Charles made life miserable for the freshman Griner and beat them handily in the 2009-10 NCAA semi-finals. We know how that season ended up. UConn won the next game in a nail biter in Hartford where a freshman Bria Hartley hit two big 3 pointers. Baylor won the next two by 5 and 6 points in game. Two years ago, UConn had an 11 point lead with 13 minutes left in the game but Griner and Odyssey Sims were too tough. Last year, UConn jumped to an 11 point lead in the first half, but the game became a back and forth affair with Baylor taking the lead at the 10 minute mark and a lead they would never lose.
This season, UConn has played and beaten five top 25 teams, including three top 10 teams. Baylor will be the 4th top ten team. After losing Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis and Morgan Tuck for several games, UConn finally had everyone back for a few game until Tuck missed the last one with knee swelling. Overall, UConn has been dominating with occasional sloppiness on the offensive end. Their defense has been strong all year.
This will be the first game in the post-Griner era and this team is now all about Sims. She has led their team in scoring in every game but one. Alexis Prince was expected to be the team’s second best player, but her foot injuries have been too much for her to play on and word is she will have season-ending surgery. Baylor has played only one top 25 team, losing a classic in triple overtime battle to Kentucky. The only other team under 100 RPI that they played is West Virginia. Sims has been on fire coming into this game hitting 6-10 on three’s in each of her last 2 games.
UConn Starting Lineup
| G Bria Hartley |
SR 5’9” |
29.9 mpg, 13.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.5 apg |
| G Moriah Jefferson |
SO 5’7” |
27.4 mpg, 10.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 4.6 apg |
| F/C Breana Stewart |
SO 6’4” |
27.6 mpg, 18.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 3.1 apg |
| F Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis |
JR 6′ |
23.9 mpg, 11.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.7 apg |
| C Stefanie Dolson |
SR 6’5” |
30.9 mpg, 13.4 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 3.6 apg |
UConn Bench
| G Briana Banks |
JR 5’9” |
19.8 mpg, 5.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.8 apg |
| C/F Kia Stokes |
JR 6’3” |
19.7 mpg, 6.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 0.8 apg |
| G Sanyia Chong |
FR 5’9” |
20.2 mpg, 6.6 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.5 apg |
F Morgan Tuck
questionable |
SO 6’2” |
14.5 mpg, 7.5 ppg. 2.4 rpg, 1.0 apg |
| G Tierney Lawlor |
FR 5’7″ |
6.2 mpg, 2.7 ppg, 0.7 rpg, 0.3 apg |
Baylor Starting Lineup
| G Odyssey Sims |
SR 5’8” |
30.5 mpg, 31.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.5 apg |
| G Niya Johnson |
SO 5’8” |
23.1 mpg, 4.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 6.8 apg |
| G Makenzie Robertson |
SR 5’9” |
27.7 mpg, 6.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.1 apg |
| F Nina Davis |
FR 5’11” |
23.1 mpg, 14.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.8 apg |
| C Sune Agbuke |
JR 6’4” |
19.7 mpg, 7.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.0 apg |
Baylor Bench
| G Imani Wright |
FR 5’9” |
15.3 mpg, 6.6ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.8 apg |
| G Ieshia Small |
FR 6′ |
15.0 mpg, 3.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.5 apg |
| C Kristina Higgins |
SO 6’5” |
14.3 mpg, 5.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 0.3 apg |
| F Khadijiah Cave |
FR 6’2” |
14.6 mpg, 5.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 0.7 apg |
Team Stats
|  /td>
| UConn |
Baylor
|
| Scoring Offense |
84.7 |
94.4 |
| Scoring Defense |
46.5 |
62.1 |
| Scoring Margin |
38.2 |
32.3 |
| Field Goal % |
50.5 |
46.1 |
| Field Goal % Defense |
30.1 |
33.4 |
| Free Throw % |
74.5 |
73.8 |
| Rebound Margin |
9.4 |
16.2 |
| 3pt FG Per Game |
7.1 |
6.1 |
| 3 point % |
34.1 |
33.7 |
| Assists Per Game |
21.4 |
21.3 |
| Blocked Shots Per Game |
9.0 |
5.3 |
| Steals Per Game |
10.5 |
7.7 |
| TO Per Game |
11.7 |
13.2 |
| Personal Fouls Per Game |
11.4 |
20.0 |
| Fouled Out |
0 |
9 |
| 3 pt FG Defense |
25.7 |
27.3 |
| Turnover Margin |
6.9 |
5.7 |
| Assist Turnover Ratio |
1.8 |
1.6 |
Game analysis
Lineups – UConn is back to their season starting lineup the last few games. While we have seen glimpes of the old KML, she is not quite there yet. Hartley has also been somewhat inconstant, but had a nice game against Temple Saturday. But she is not called big-game Hartley for nothing. Stefanie Dolson is continuing her AA play and Moriah Jefferson is getting better and better. Scary for opponents. Breanna Stewart is the most talented player on the floor every night and the bench has shown they can step in when needed. Kiah Stokes had a monster game last time out with both Dolson and Stewart in foul trouble. Tuck had a great game two games ago but with her knee acting up, it’s unknown at this time how much she can contribute on Monday.
Baylor has settled into a starting lineup of 3 guards. Sims, of course, dominated that group and the ball at all times. But Makenzie Robertson hits the occasional three when left alone and Niya Johnson is an excellent passer, but when you are playing with Sims, your assists should be up. Nina Davis has been an excellent addition to the team and at 5’11”, she is an amazing rebounder. After two years of practicing against Griner, I’m sure that Sune Agbuke won’t be intimidated and she has had a solid season. The Baylor bench plays a solid number of minutes and contributes most games but in competitive games (3 OT game not included), but bench minutes go way down.
UConn offense vs Baylor defense – Big advantage here for UConn. Baylor has a very young team and the new rules haven’t helped them. They have had foul outs and average 20 fouls per game. With 4 freshman and 2 sophs in the 9 player rotation, I would bet that Kim Mulkey plays her experienced players as much as possible. Sims, Robertson and Agbuke, the only upperclassmen, will see close to 40 minutes for this game and the two freshman guards off the bench will see little time. UConn’s offense will put great pressure on the Baylor defense. They have no one to cover Stewart. Certainly not Davis although that will be her probably assignment. Good luck with that. Will Kim start Khadijah Cave instead of a guard to have some height? It’s a match-up nightmare for Baylor. If Sims covers Hartley, who covers Jefferson? Dolson is too skilled for either Agbuke or Kristina Higgins. I haven’t even mentioned KML. If one of the guards has to cover her, she will post up all night long.
Baylor offense vs UConn Defense – Sims. Sims. And more Sims. Can UConn find a way to slow her down? It looked like Geno was playing more zone lately, maybe in preparation for this game. I watched Sims against West Virginia and she was just amazing. She split double-teams with ease, made passes to open teammates when covered tightly and hit 3 point shots like they were layups. It’s when the ball is not in her hands when it gets dicey for Baylor. UConn’s defense is just too tough for them to navigate when Sims is not dominating the ball. Johnson is a good passer, but she doesn’t shoot man jumpers and is not quick enough to get past the Uconn guards. And she will get to know Stewart and Dolson if she does. Robertson is a good 3 point shooter, but doesn’t do much else. She will struggle on defense and that will impact her offense. Davis is a terrific player and second best scoring option but she is a freshman and being a small power forward, will struggle with UConn’s size. There is occasional scoring being done by the rest of the team, but I will repeat – Sims, Sims and more Sims.
Final prediction
I took a close look at Baylor’s schedule. Based on the fact that they have played so many weak teams, it’s difficult to take their team stats as an indication on how good this team is. Take a look at 13 of their 15 games. I’ve listed the team and their RPI.
Grambling State 191
Nicholls State 221
Rice 183
Savannah State 177
Northwestern State 146
UTSA 170
San Jose State 213
Houston Baptist 331
Ole Miss 162
McNeese State 208
Kansas State 129
Kansas 135
TCU 111.
Their 95 ppg, their huge rebounding numbers, their high assists per game I feel were all inflated by the schedule. So, how to predict the game? You have to look past those numbers and their record.
This game is a match-up nightmare for Baylor. Only a great game by Sims will stop it from being ugly and by ugly, I mean a 30+ point UConn win. Sims going off for 40 or more might keep it closer to a 20 point win for UConn but Baylor is too young to come close to a UConn team that is too quick and to big for them to handle.
Between the home court, and a terrific Sims, a 25+ win for Connecticut looks about right to me.
by 
