The Measure of Bazz
by OkaForPrez
Bob Wenzel was the latest to remind us about the difficulties of following a legend on Saturday: “You don’t want to be the guy after the guy, it’s better to be the guy after the guy after the guy.” Wenzel was, of course, talking about Kevin Ollie’s tall order of replacing Hall of Famer Jim Calhoun. There have been so many failed attempts to replace all time great coaches at other programs that Ollie’s inaugural success has been captivating for both UConn nation and the college basketball world. So captivating, that we forget his greatest asset, Shabazz Napier, is attempting to do the very same. How do you replace Kemba Walker?
Seventeen players in UConn history have been welcomed into the inner circle that is the Huskies of Honor. Three of those players have national championship rings. Only one number was instantly etched on the wall of Gampel and the hearts of the state of Connecticut. Kemba was joyous, beloved, basketball genius. And then he was gone.
The void that Kemba left behind became a black hole in 2012, easily one of the most disappointing years in UConn men’s basketball history. It was as if the moment the keys to the kingdom began to drop into Bazz’s outstretched hands an ominous black cloud came billowing over the horizon. Andre Drummond went from mix tape legend, to walk on, to the fuse wiring a heap of dynamite stacked haphazardly by the Oriakhi Family Mining Company. The chemistry turned and the team splintered into a whole less than the sum of its parts. It was probably unfair, but Bazz was held accountable for failing to lead as Kemba had. His harshest critic was himself. Following back to back losses to Seton Hall and Rutgers in January of last year, he vented to the press:
“I try to tell the guys, I feel as if I’m their best leader. Sometimes they give me a chance, sometimes they don’t…That’s just how it is. It’s just basketball, I guess. Losing like this, I’m not here to … be the captain because it gives you an ego boost. I’m here to win games. I hate losing games as much as anybody in the world. I try my best to be a leader, even though guys don’t give me a chance to be that person. It shows in the game, I can’t lie. When we have a tipped ball and big guys get the ball and I’m yelling for the ball back out, we’ve got a new shot clock and they go back up … that shows I’m not that much of a leader. When a play starts breaking down and I’m yelling, ‘Bring it out, bring it out,’ and Boat or Jeremy takes a shot, that just shows that I’m not a leader. It sucks, because we lose games like that. But I try my best. I’m just a human being, I try to do my best in helping my teammates out. If they don’t want me to do it, that’s on them, but I’m still going to be scratching and trying to do it, because I hate losing. That’s the worst thing ever.”
The losing would continue all the way through the team’s whisper of an exit to Iowa State in the first round of the NCAA’s. By his own measure, Bazz’s first attempt to replace Kemba was a failure. And while he waited for his second opportunity to do so, the deck continued to stack against him. The APR ban descended, Calhoun retired and five players jumped ship. UConn limped into the 2013 season with a bare cupboard for a front court and a temp to perm coach.
It’s important to keep in mind this recent past as context for how Bazz has performed this year because he is having an all time great season for a UConn point guard. In fact, his numbers are not only competitive with the junior seasons of Kemba, Taliek Brown, Marcus Williams, AJ Price and Khalid El-Amin, but they are competitive with the entire list of Wooden Award finalist guards – a list in whichh he is not included. Bazz has been so good that he has helped us forget the trials and tribulations of last year and just how concerned we were back in October. Let’s spend some time measuring just how good he has been. After all, it’s a better pass time than trying to find reasons he is not ready for the next level.
As far as basketball statistics are concerned, there are four primary indicators which influence a team’s ability to win. These four factors defined by statistician Dean Oliver are Effective Field Goal %, Turnover %, Free Throw Rate and Rebounding. It follows that evaluating a player’s contributions to their team should be based on the same factors compared across players at the same position. Evaluating turnover % is a bit tricky at the player level as it is greatly dependent on the number of shots a player puts up, so we will substitute assist to turnover ratio.
Effective Field Goal %:
According to Oliver, Effective Field Goal % carries the strongest predictive weight for success on the court. It amounts to 40% of the predictive power of the combined four factors. At a team level this measure also includes eFG% defense, but because this is harder to measure individually, we will limit our comparison to offense only. Bazz’s eFG% this year going into the game against Cincinnati was 55.2%. This is head and shoulders above Kemba’s Junior year (47.8%), AJ’s (50.8%), Marcus’ (46.5%), Taliek’s (44.2%) and Khalid’s (47.6%). Bazz’s eFG would rank 5th out of the 15 mid-season Wooden Award finalists behind only Trey Burke, Ben Mclemore, Seth Curry and Nate Wolters. When it comes to the most important stat in the game, Bazz is having the best junior year for a point guard in UConn history. As a side note, Victor Oladipo was also omitted from the mid-season Wooden list despite dwarfing the rest of the country in this statistic at a whopping 68.5%! Oladipo’s offensive efficiency coupled with his aggressive defensive ability to get in passing lanes and generate deflections makes him my pick for player of the year and Indiana a favorite to get to the final four.
Turnovers(A/TO)
As far as great UConn points are concerned, a 2.0 assist to turnover ratio appears to be the baseline expectation. Bazz, Kemba, Taliek and Khalid all posted 2.0 ATO ratios in their junior years. AJ and Marcus distinguish themselves in this category coming in at 2.5 and 2.3 respectively. Bazz’ 2.0 ATO is good enough to rank him 4th amongs Wooden finalist guards behind Trey Burke (3.6), Nate Wolters (2.5), and Michael Carter Williams (2.3). I took particular pleasure to note that Mizzou’s Phil Pressey is coming in at 1.9 this year after posting a 2.6 last year. I won’t speculate as to the decline of this number, but let’s all take a moment to smile quietly to ourselves. Right. For those keeping score, Bazz is now in the top 5 of “WAF” guards in both eFG% and ATO. Only two other players, Nate Wolters and Trey Burke have ranked as high in both categories.
Free Throw Rate(FTR)
FTR is a measure of how often a player gets to the line relative to the number of shots they take in a game. This is a particularly telling stat as players and teams who can get to the line frequently have a better chance of offensive consistency game to game and can generate points in tight situations. Among the elite UConn PGs we have been considering, Bazz’s FTR of 43.8 ranks 2nd behind only Marcus at 53.4. Khalid was especially outclassed by the rest of the players considered, coming in at 25.2. I guess he was better at burying big shots from the field and jumping on scorers tables. That’s for you, and you, and you Pittsburgh. Disappointingly, Bazz gets to the line slightly less than half of WAF guards. He comes in middle of the pack in 7th position. However, when he does get to the line he shoots a healthy 82.6%, good enough for top 5 among this year’s elite. Also, if there was any doubt as to Bazz’ poise under pressure, this number balloons to 88% in the final 5 min of the 2nd half and overtime. Bazz is the one you want on the line with the game in the balance, a truth Kentucky fans would begrudgingly confirm.
Rebounding
Some may argue that Bazz’s rebound totals in 2013 are inflated due to the struggles of the team as a whole on the glass. Others can argue that without Bazz, a frustratingly terrible rebounding team would be far worse. No matter which side you fall on, the number remains what it is, the 2nd best rebounding year amongs our UConn PG sample set. At 4.3 rpg, Bazz is behind only Kemba’s 5.4 in 2011. That number is also good enough to put him 7 among WAF guards this year. Interestingly, San Diego St.’s Jamaal Franklin pulls down 9 rebounds per game at his shooting guard position. This is more than 3 rebounds more than any other guard on the mid season Wooden watch list. Impressive stuff.
Clutch
Most of the predictive models used by sports statisticians do not differentiate performance with the game on the line vs. normal game situations, but we would be remiss if we broke down Bazz’s year without acknowledging how good he has been in overtime situations. In the 8 overtime sessions UConn has played this year, they have emerged with a record of 4-2 (twice going to double overtime). Bazz has scored 52 points over the 40 minutes of overtime on 67% (10/15) shooting from three and 91% (20/22) from the line. He has made big shots look so routine that the solitary word “Bazz” appears more than a dozen times in my text history this year, as if his name alone is the definition of clutch shooting. How’s that for an obscure stat?
One stat that is not covered in the above but also deserves mentioning is steals per game. At 1.9 this year, Bazz is best amongst our UConn greats and 4th amongst WAF guards. While this is not one of the primary factors that indicate success, it can be considered part of the eFG% defense that is a blind area in our player level analytics. The eye test has also shown us that this leads to a lot of momentum swings in UConn’s favor and points on the board.
What a year huh? By any measure one of the best in UConn history. But perhaps what solidifies it are the things we can’t measure. Things like loyalty, heart, swag and leadership. Things like tolerance for pain while playing on 1.5 feet for 25 minutes against Georgetown last week. I don’t know if he will play again this year. I don’t know if he will ever play in a UConn jersey again. But I do know that even if he has played his last game as a Husky, he will go down as one of the most important players in UConn history; the heart of the bridge Huskies. And anyone who will remember him as anything less does not have the measure of Bazz.
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