UConn-Kentucky Pregame Analysis
by doggydaddy
UConn vs Kentucky
UConn – 32-4 overall, 14-2 Big East
Kentucky – 30-5 overall, 13-3 SEC
UCONN
Probable Starters
G – Doty 5’10” SR (3.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.3 apg)
G – Faris 5’11” SR (10.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.0 apg)
F – KML 6’ SO (17.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 2.4 apg)
F – Stewart 6’4″ FR ( 12.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg, .9 apg)
C – Dolson 6’5” (14.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.0 apg)
Bench
G – Hartley 5’9” JR (8.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.8 apg)
F – Tuck FR 6’2” (6.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.3 apg)
G – Jefferson FR 5’7″ (4.7 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.8 apg)
F/C – Stokes SO 6’3″ (3.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg, .7 apg)
Coach – Geno Auriemma
KENTUCKY
Probable Starters
G – O’Neill 5’6” SO (10.8 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.9 apg)
G – Mathies 5’9” SR (16.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.3 apg)
G – Evans 5’8” JR (4.3 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.0 apg)
F – Walker 6’1” JR (8.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.2 apg)
C – Stallworth 6’3” JR (12.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.0 apg)
Bench
G – Goss 5’10” SO (8.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.3 apg)
F – Sidney 6’2” SO (1.8 ppg, 1.3 rpg, .4 apg)
F – Henderson 6’2” SR (1.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg, .4 apg)
G – Pinkett 5’7” JR ( 2.9 ppg, 1.6 rpg, .6 apg)
F – Bishop 6’3” SO (3.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, .5 apg)
Coach – Matthew Mitchell
Team Stats UConn / Kentucky
Points PG – 82.2 / 76.0
Rebounds PG – 42.8 / 39.3
Assists PG – 20.7 / 13.3
TO/G – 13.9 / 15.3
Opponents PPG – 49.0 / 57.1
FG % – 49.6 / 42.1
Opponents FG% – 31.6 / 39.3
3pt % 37.4 / 33.0
Steals PG 10.6 / 12.0
Block PG 5.9 / 5.0
UConn is 3-1 over Kentucky overall with the Huskies’ only loss taking place in December 1992.
Last meeting – 2011-12 Elite Eight game UConn 80, Kentucky 65.
UConn had to work extremely hard in the first half. It was only a 2 point game and UConn only led 48-47 early in the second half. The Huskies went on a 21-4 run with Hayes leading the way. KML wasn’t efficient, but she played well in scoring 18 points. Her 2nd half was inspiring with 12 points and 6 rebounds shooting 3-4 from the field, 2-3 on 3 point shots and 4-4 from the foul line. UConn’s 2nd half defense stifled Kentucky, causing the Wildcats to shoot only 30%. Kentucky’s defense was effective, forcing 9 TO’s and converting to 10 points in each half. But UConn shot well when it didn’t turn the ball over, and that was the demise of Kentucky.
Notable lines –
Mathies – 2-12 from the field, 8 points
Walker – 14 points, 5 rebounds
Kentucky – 31% from the field, 28% 3 pointers, 21 rebounds
UConn – 51% from the field, 27% 3 pointers, 35 rebounds
Lewis – 18 points on 5-14 shooting
Hartley – 13 points on 9-10 FT’s.
Hayes led the team in scoring with 22
NCAA results
UConn 103, Idaho 37
UConn 77, Vanderbilt 44
UConn 76, Maryland 50
Kentucky 61, Navy 41
Kentucky 84, Dayton 70
Kentucky 69, Delaware 60
Kentucky
Kentucky didn’t dominate its opponents as UConn did, but the Wildcats played their usual frenetic game, forcing opponents into an uptempo game where they excel. They forced Navy into 25 TO’s, Dayton into 23 and Delaware into 18. They play their 40 minutes of hell every game, using 10 players to keep the defense fresh. As the games get tougher, the bench sees less time, and they really only played 7 players major minutes against Delaware. Stallworth got in foul trouble against Delaware and played only 13 minutes. That would really hurt Kentucky against UConn. The big change in Kentucky this year is the wonderful play of O’Neill. A hard-nosed guard, she reminds me a little of Jen Rizzoti. She is really the x-factor. If she can hit 4-9 on 3’s like she did against Delaware, Kentucky can stay in the game. Kentucky needs to score more than just off their defense.
Connecticut
UConn continued it’s domination in the tourney with a convincing win over Maryland. Even with Dolson not at 100% the Huskies were able to win the battle of the boards. That was very surprising. UConn narrowed their rotation to seven players for this game and against Kentucky, I expect that to continue. Stokes, Doty and Buck don’t match up well with the style of the Wildcats. Stewart continued her great great play. In fact, I think this was her best game of the season. She got bumped and held her ground. This really bodes well for UConn the rest of the tourney. KML did not shoot well from beyond the arc, but her overall game was terrific. She has grown so much this season. Tuck played a solid game in the 2nd half and against a tough front line like Maryland, her posterior positioning had a positive payoff. The ESPN star of the game was Jefferson and it was hard to argue with that. Her play was inspiring to the rest of the team and her speed brings something that UConn needs on the floor especially against Kentucky. She and Hartley will have to take care of the ball as they did against Maryland – not an easy task. Dolson’s injury is problematic. Against a running team like Kentucky, she will struggle to get back on defense and UConn needs her to defend the post.
Final Analysis
Last year was last year. Hayes was a big factor, but she’s graduated. Kentucky has 2 new starters and one is the point guard. UConn has added Stewart, Jefferson and Tuck, who are all playing like sophomores now. Two new teams.
What hasn’t changed is the difference in overall talent. UConn is too strong down low and Kentucky has no answer for KML or Stewart. I expect UConn to take care of the ball well enough to slow down Kentucky and for the Huskies to dominate the boards, igniting their fast break. If Jefferson and Hartley can handle the press, this could be a 20 point win for UConn. Look for at worst, a repeat of last years margin. UConn is playing as well as they have all year and seem to be on a mission.
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