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Message: [QUOTE="diggerfoot, post: 3077606, member: 1673"] When even MS fans take issue to my listing I know I am not conveying my point. Lol. Let's try it this way. I happen to think Notre Dame has both the best A game out there and is the team most likely to beat UConn. I'm not surprised by their Massey rating, I endorse it. I would place Baylor 2nd. Their A game could beat anybody but Notre Dame's A game. Teams don't necessarily bring their A game every night, but the reliable ones don't fall short when it matters, or enough to matter. Notre Dame is not reliable. While capable of beating any team they face in the FF, they also are capable of losing to an inferior team in the regional. They've done so in the not too distant past, as has Baylor; unlike UConn ... or Mississippi State (they don't have a long track record, but what record they have is exceeding expectations, not falling short). I think Notre Dame will beat UConn if they face again in the Final Four because they are more likely to bring their A game this time around, but I don't think they will make it there. This is not based on factors that Massey measures, but it is based on experiential data. VG asked for our opinions, not a regurgitation of statistical models. The inclusion of the experiential data I find pertinent factors in the likelihood of making it to the Final Four. I do not think UConn, Baylor or Mississippi State will fall short. Baylor has fell short against inferior teams in the past, but their impressive showing down the stretch suggests to me that won't happen this time. They also should beat Mississippi State if both bring their A game. However, I'm just slightly more confident that falling short of the Final Four won't happen to Mississippi State because they are more battle tested, already experienced tighter spots against regional caliber teams, and their history suggests they are like UConn in not losing to an inferior opponent in the Regionals, unlike past failures of Baylor and Notre Dame. Since you have to make the Final Four before you win a championship that accounts for my rankings. If Notre Dame makes the Final Four I would immediately promote them to the top of the list .... and be very, very nervous. [/QUOTE]

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