Your prediction - minutes breakdown. | The Boneyard

Your prediction - minutes breakdown.

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I think players are going to have up and down minutes throughout the season, as JC adds various different ingredients each game, but, after seeing 4 games, I have come to this guess as to how the minutes are going to end up being divied come late February, when the bench shortens, figuring 200 minutes per game, with the real unknown being how RB plays:

SN - 34
Lamb - 33
Oriakhi - 30
Drummond - 30
Daniels - 28
TO - 18
RB - 15
RS - 9
NG - 3
Others play minor minutes, if at all.

Just my wild ass guess, to be sure.
Why?
The team will go as Shabazz goes. He is the general. He is the most essential guy on the team. He will get big minutes, because he must.

Lamb will get his 30+ because he is the man on the O end. He will be a zone buster and a heart breaker.

Other than Drummond, Oriakhi is our best post defender and rebounder. He will need to be out there for size and authority. Olander has improved greatly, but he doesn't have the defensive presence that Alex does.

Daniels - 28 may seem generous, right? Well, he played 26 against Wagner, and in fact I think 28 may end up being too low. This kid IS the steal of the decade for us. He's instant impact, he's a great shooter, and his defense and boarding are coming around quickly. This kid is now, to me, capable of being a 1 and done along with Drummond.

Tyler O - 18? This is the toughest one to call. He's solid, but I can't see any guy above him on my list giving up minutes to him. If it was Tyler from last year, I'd say he'd be doing a great impression of bench hardware this year. His improvement buys him some minutes.

The Boat show gets 15 backing up Shabs unless he's just Khalid-esque in terms of ability to create, in which case it's hard to predict where his minutes will come from, if not from Napes, as I can't see a Napier/Boat backcourt out there too long each game.

RS gets 9. I love the Roscoe. I dearly do. He represents the heart and soul of the program in a lot of ways. But Drummond and Daniels committing this summer was the worst thing that could have happened to his PT, as Drummond pushes AO to the 4 and Daniels is competing directly with him for minutes at the 3. Given that it seems that Drummond will be a force by the end of the year and that Daniels is looking every bit a top 3 recruit in the nation right now, I can't find minutes for Scoe. If you look at the stat line from Wagner, you wonder what Smith did while he was out there. 1 point, 1 board, 3 fouls in 17 minutes. DD had 11 pts, 5 boards, 3 blocks, and a steal in just 7 minutes more, and hit both his 3s. I'll add that Roscoe seems to not have changed his game much since March. I feel very badly for this kid, as it now seems very likely he could very well go from almost 26 minutes a game last year to substantially less this year. I hope he toughs through it, as PT will almost certainly open back up in 13 and 14.

NG -Love this kid's effort. Like his game and his rebounding nose. Just not seeing who gives up minutes for him. 2 points, 3 boards, and a TO in 12 minutes doesn't merit minutes going to him from any guy above him. His best bet at finding time would be to be a dead-eye 3 shooter. Other than at Opening Night.

Much can happen to change this, but, after seeing Drummond go under the basket for a sweet reverse, block two shots, rebound hard, and so on, I don't see how the minutes are going to shake out much different at the top.

It's nice to have our cup running over, I just worry that there'll be a psychological effect on one or more players, and maybe on the team as a whole, if everybody doesn't embrace their role, and specifically if that role is reduced from last year.

By the way. Have to say this. Given how the summer panned out, the most important thing that happened to Connecticut since March was a player leaving, thereby making room from either Drummond or DD, essentially converting a guy who was going to see teen minutes per game at best into a guy who is a top 3-5 recruit in the country.
 
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JL - 34
SN - 31
AO - 30
AD - 25
RS - 22
DD- 17
TO - 17
RB - 15
NG - 7
BA - 1
EW - 1
 
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We're on the same page other than DD, DA, and RS. Drummond got 18 against Wagner. I just can't imagine that 20 games from now he's not out there as much as he can handle, with foul trouble being all that can keep him on the bench.
 
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Don't know what will happen down the stretch, but I figure if TO keeps it up he can eat some minutes playing alongside AO, and the foul trouble combined with poor FT shooting may keep AD out of the game a bit in the 2nd half.

As for DD and Roscoe, maybe it's wishful thinking, but I think Roscoe can turn the corner, and the pressure that DD is putting on him could be just what he needs.
 
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SN - 34
Lamb - 33
Oriakhi - 24
Drummond - 30
Daniels - 18
TO - 22
RB - 15
RS - 13
NG - 12
Others play minor minutes, if at all.

Giffey seems to me that he's improved in all areas. I think his minutes go up some.
 
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Too hard to know for sure until RB actually laces em up against some real competition. But if I had to predict...

SN 31
JL 33
RS 20
AO 30
AD 28 (I don't think we will see him in late game situations much)
TO 20
DD 18
RB 15
NG 5
 
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It's always hard to predict this sort of thing. One player who might surprise us with the amount of PT he'll get is Olander. He's been playing very well so far. It's just hard to figure out how JC will carve up the minutes at the 4 & 5. The better Daniels & Giffey play the more Scoe's minutes will be pushed to the 4, making it quite a log jam with 3 (Scoe, Alex, Tyler) players battling for PT. If you include the 5 you have 6 players (add Andre, Bradley & Wolf) to the mix. It seems Wolf is going to find it awfully hard to get any PT this season, especially if Bradley returns.

As for Bradley, things couldn't have turned out much worse for him. After red-shirting for a season, he ends up in a boot before they even play their first game. He had his work cut out for him as it was.

I think the only two players that you can ink for 30 to 35 minutes a game, assuming RB returns, is Bazz & Lamb. The minutes for the rest will likely change from game to game based on who's playing well that game and to some degree the recent efforts put in during practice.

One caveat to the above is that JC will often give a player who he believe will give them the best chance of winning late in the season, who might not be performing well, a lot of PT at the expense of another player ,or players. He did that last season with Lamb and we all know how much that paid off.

Don't confuse this with JC taking away minutes early in the season from some important contributors who aren't playing to the level he wants. For example, it seems that he's not happy with Alex and has kept him on the bench for some prolonged stretches. Granted Tyler is playing very well lately, but IMO it's more about Oriakhi not doing what JC expects. Expect his PT to begin to edge back up, especially if he puts up a monster game tomorrow or Sunday.

The player IMO who's causing the uncertainty is Daniels. I think he is this years Lamb where JC is going to make sure he gets him minutes regardless to how he plays...well to a point. If he makes a lot of mental mistakes, which he hasn't made many so far, that would get him on the pine. I just think he's going to give Deandre minutes at the expense of both Roscoe & Giffey. Niels is good enough to earn more PT than he'll probably get, but the more you carve up the minutes the less development you tend to get from the players effected.

I guess it's possible that Roscoe could be the player to take a hit as far as PT at the 3 since he seems to be struggling offensively in that role. He seems to be more productive at the 4, and depending on match-ups and how well AD, Alex & Tyler are playing, he can pick up a lot of minutes at the 4. Maybe I'm wrong, but I see Scoe & Giffey battling for PT similar to what we saw with CMD & Giffey last season, where JC seemed to ride the hot hand. It started off as Giffey. He tailed off as CMD began to play well. Then Jamal hurt his knee opening the door for Giffey again during the post season, where both played well and got minutes. Since Giffey is primarily suited to play the 3 while Roscoe can play both the 3 & 4, I expect Scoe to average more minutes. Skill wise, Roscoe is a better and longer athlete who can be a big time disruption on defense, giving him a solid edge over Giffey. As for overall instincts at the 3, I think Giffey has a slight edge.

I hate doing these but...

Lamb - 30 to 35 a night (above 35 in big games if he's not in any sort of foul trouble)
Bazz - 28 to 35 assuming RB returns and he's the player I think he is. Boatright will not only spell Bazz at the point, I think he's going to give us some scoring punch at the 2. I would not be shocked if UConn's best line-up includes Lamb, Bazz and Boat on the floor together at the same time.
Boat - 15 to 20+ once he's plays himself into the rotation.
Daniels - 15 to 20
Giffey - 7 to 12
Roscoe - 15 to 20
Andre - 15 to 25 - I see his minutes fluctuating, driving by foul trouble, how's he's playing, how close the game is late (not on floor late in close games, at least on offense if he doesn't improve his foul shooting) and how well the other bigs are playing.
Tyler - 15 to 25 - Right now he's averaging over 30 minutes a game but I see that edging down as AD improves and Alex plays himself out of JC's dog house.
Bradley - DNP to 5
Wolf - DNP to 2
Allen - DNP to 2
 
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Neither AO or AD will be in at the end of games because neither can hit free throws- you'll see Roscoe and DD in probably with Tyler... unless we go small, and then you could even see the 3 guard set with the two long wing guys...

Everyone killing Roscoe right now really needs to take a chill pill- DD, Roscoe, AO and AD will all be between 20-25 minutes a game; Napier and Lamb will be the only guys close to 30 IMHO...
 
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The scary thing with minutes is that you could possibly be looking at a team that has 8 guys drafted at some point... obviously, that's a long way away for some of our guys, but if you look at skill sets and talent level, it's not a crazy thing to think... bazz has already shown he's a top tier PG and can score in bunches- he has looked more like last year's kemba than last year's bazz so far this year... lamb, AD, AO are all possible lottery picks, Roscoe, DD, RB and TO could all be later picks if they keep developing... Tyler is really going to be a beast by the time he's a senior, and he actually will stick around all 4 years unlike some of these guys who may only be 2-3 year guys

although, maybe the NBA won't play any more and we can have all these guys for 4 years! how great would that be? we could go on a Woodenesque run if that happened... i know i'm dreaming now
 
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Neither AO or AD will be in at the end of games because neither can hit free throws- you'll see Roscoe and DD in probably with Tyler... unless we go small, and then you could even see the 3 guard set with the two long wing guys...

Everyone killing Roscoe right now really needs to take a chill pill- DD, Roscoe, AO and AD will all be between 20-25 minutes a game; Napier and Lamb will be the only guys close to 30 IMHO...
Yeah, Roscoe seems to be some what of this year's lightning rod. The players who come in highly ranked but don't live up to their ranking or people's expectations are prone to this on these forums.

I like Roscoe. He's a real nice kid and hard worker. What seems to be holding him back is his struggles with creating scoring opportunities for himself. Either he lacks the ball handling skills, instincts or confidence in those skills. Maybe he'll surprise some folks and develop that part of his game as the season goes on.

It just seems that Daniels is more confident with his offense than Roscoe right now and has a more advance offensive wing game. If Daniels wasn't here, Scoe would be getting a lot of PT at the 3, that's for sure.
 
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first two game average/rest of season

JL-39/ (becomes) 31
SN-36/31
TO-35/24
DD-22/22
RS23/22
AO-21/26
AD-15/22 (I don't see him in late stages of game on offense,unless foul shooting improves)
NG-12/10
RB-0/10
MB-0/2

this is more my ideal than reality. I think that if we can keep JL, SN and the bigs fresh, we can make a deep run.
 
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To be clear - I'm not "coming down" on Roscoe. I love the guy, and his contribution. I'm just not sure the guy is going to get as many minutes this year as he did last year.

Josh Boone was in at the end of games.
Drummond will be as well.
 
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Actually, I think he'll play the same amount of minutes as last year- he just won't go up at all... as you would normally see from freshman-sophomore year..... so it might seem like a let down or a big drop off if he's around 22-25 this season... (through no fault of his own, but because they now have DD and TO playing much improved as well)

And Boone was rarely touching the ball at the end for that Husky team; he was in there to rebound defensively... plus, he was the tallest and longest player on the floor. (he's an inch taller than emeka) This year's team is different than a team with Rashad, Denham, Ben on the floor as we are longer and more athletic so won't necessarily need TWO big guys on the court at all times.... I think you'll probably see one of the big guys on the court at crunch time for now... AO and AD are just huge liability's at the line that it would be too easy to play hack-a-shaq with either
 
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Figured I'd revive this thread to see how we did.
My predictions (actual minutes in parens):

SN - 34 (36)
Lamb - 33 (40)
Oriakhi - 30 (28)
Drummond - 30 (36)
Daniels - 28 (3)
TO - 18 (15)
RB - 15 (29)
RS - 9 (3)
NG - 3 (10)

The thing that I clearly missed is that, without Boat, we don't have a lot of in-traffic ball handling. Lamb has a tight handle, but not in a run- the-offense kind of way. More in a beat-his-man kind of way. What I thought would be Daniels' minutes have gone to Boat, with some left over for Lamb and Drummond, who is probably going to play as many minutes as he can handle from here on out.

If you look at RS, NG, and DD as fairly fungible, then the only way the bulk of the minutes are going to change is 1) If Alex is in doghouse or playing like crap 2) If we're playing a weak guard, bigger team 3) If somebody who plays fewer minutes gets hot or 4) if somebody gets in foul trouble.

Otherwise, I think we're looking at Boat, Napes, Lamb, Oriakhi, and Drummond as the main 5 the rest of the way.
 
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