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[QUOTE="uh-no, post: 4886519, member: 12993"]
Sure. Eye test is usually good....but it's also often biased in cases where results haven't tracked with how well a team has played. If a team loses by a couple to a bunch of top teams, many people will use the "eye test" and say they aren't good....but in reality, they're probably a sleeper.

Consider last year's uconn team. COnventional eye test wisdom was that uconn was cooked after their woeful league start. Analytics never dropped them less than 6th. That's the kind of thing it helps with....allowing decoupling of game to game variance inherent in any random-ish event (not uniform, but there is still a "random" variable to some degree), from human intuition and recency bias.

Neither is perfect, and they make good checks on eachother. On the one hand, uconn is likely not 2 points worse than houston as the metrics would indicate, but also, kentucky was never the top 6 team the polls pinned them as (metrics never even having them top 15).
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