Interesting analysis - thanks for posting. I think this follows pretty closely with college recruiting. Two or three years out of four there is one, two, or three really stand out recruits that can be clearly identified and then a group of good players whose rankings may not reflect the order of their future development. Same with the draft, though you do have the advantage of selecting more mature players so presumably you get a better read on skills and emotional development.
I think what is clearly not identified in the piece is the #5 pick is fixed and so has zero chance of picking first while the fourth worst team still gets a lottery chance of getting that #1 pick. And the years are not played in a vacuum - last year everyone knew there were two absolute franchise players so getting in the lottery gave you 2 shots at the apple. This year I think will be more balanced with no obvious ringers so tanking for the lottery is probably less of a temptation.