With the start of the new year, who the mid-majors who will garner NCAA bids?

[DefenseBB]

Let me define the mid-majors for this discussion, anyone but the P4 and the Big East. So, yes the American Athletic Conference is considered a Mid-Major.

Ok, the mandatory pre-amble: 68 Teams get bids, 31 are Automatic Qualifiers (AQ). With 31 conferences, so that leads 37 at large bids. The cut off is around ranked #43-50 NET. I have also included the Massey Rating as well. In looking at the NET and Massey Ratings, the fact is the mid-majors are not very good this year. when compared to the P4. Besides the P4 and Big East, there are 6 other conferences whose teams COULD warrant an AT LARGE BID.

American Athletic Conference has 1 school- Rice with a NET 77/Massey 75 with USF 80/86 so they are a 1 bid league
Atlantic 10 has URI NET 46/Massey 60, Richmond 47/52 and Davidson 52/80. They may get 2 bids.
Ivy League has Princeton 38/32, Columbia 59/56 and Harvard 82/81. Sorry @oldude but it looks like just 1 IVY gets in if Princeton wins the bid.
Summit League has SD State 48/41 and ND State 51/78 so to me, this is just a one bid league. SD State is right at the cut line of 48 NET so if they don't win the league, they could be left out.
Sun Belt has Troy 64/61 and James Madison 58/67 so this is just a 1 bid league.
West Coast has Gonzaga 72/65 Santa Clara 55/83 and Oregon State 81/69, so again, this is just a 1-bid league.

To recap, A-10 has possible chance at 2 and everyone else is just 1 with maybe the IVY getting two if Princeton does not win the bid as their NET and Massey are clearly better than others.

So, where are the bids going to go?
ACC with 10 (AQ and 9 at large-Louisville, NC State, UNC, ND, Duke, Miami, Stanford are locks, with Clemson, UVA and Syracuse near the cut lines that bad losses could hurt them. Syracuse is the NET #44 and lowest ranked to possibly lose a slot to the A-10
Big 12 with 7 (AQ and 5-TCU, ISU, Tex Tech, Baylor, WVU, Ok State and ASU) While @azfan will be very happy they are at risk with a NET of should they suffer some losses.
Big East with 2 (AQ and 1 at large-UConn and Villanova). Seton Hall is at the bubble #45 NET so any bad loss could hurt them.
Big Ten with 12 (AQ and 11-UCLA, Michigan, Maryland, Iowa, Oregon, Illinois, Minnesota, SoCal, Michigan State, Ohio State, Nebraska and Washington). Illinois is most at risk.
SEC with 10 (AQ and 9 at large-Texas, SC, LSU, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Alabama, Miss State and Georgia). To me, Georgia is most at risk to lose a spot and then Alabama.

My frustration is the NET seems to encourage teams to play atrocious OOC schedules as Alabama, Georgia, Virginia, Clemson, Miss State, ASU and seem to game the system. Maybe I am wrong and it will all be alright in the end.

 

[azfan]

So Big Sky and Mountain West are not considered mid majors?

And would the WAC winner constitute the easiest bid into the dance?

 

[visitingcock]

Sorry, my mind won’t wrap around there being G/5. Instead, I only think of there being a P/4 plus one. That one being of course UConn .

The question to me is what nonP/4 teams could lose their conference tournament
( auto bid) and still receive an at large bid? For this, I look at the top ranked non/P/4s in the NET (at this time)

Uconn (1) a certainty of course

Villanova (27) very strong possibility

Princeton (38) medium strong possibility

Fairfield (42) possibility

Rhodesia Island(46), Richmond (47), South Dakota State (48) weak but possible.

A NET rank beyond 50 is so unlikely as to be nearly impossible.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Rhodesia Island

The Fighting Ridgebacks?

 

[nwhoopfan]

Definitely seems like mid majors are trending downward. Some formerly strong programs like South Florida, Florida Gulf Coast and Gonzaga were often in the at large bid category even if they lost their conference tourney, but don't appear to be this year. I think the Missouri Valley Conference used to get multiple bids fairly regularly, but that almost certainly won't be the case this season.

 

[visitingcock]

Is it time for D1 and D2 with relegation and elevation every year or every five years? I plan to revisit this question with a thread during the off season.

 

[Bigboote]

Definitely seems like mid majors are trending downward. Some formerly strong programs like South Florida, Florida Gulf Coast and Gonzaga were often in the at large bid category even if they lost their conference tourney, but don't appear to be this year. I think the Missouri Valley Conference used to get multiple bids fairly regularly, but that almost certainly won't be the case this season.

Yeah, if the ACC can get 8 or 9 at-large bids (I know, not guaranteed, but possible) and mid-majors get 6 or so altogether, the mid-majors really are on a downswing.

I still like the oft-expressed idea that no P4 team should be able to make the dance with a losing in-conference record. I also think that no conference winners should be in play-in games. They earned their places in the first weekend of competition, not a single sparsely attended game.

 

[nwhoopfan]

I also think that no conference winners should be in play-in games.

What about a conference like the NEC this year? They probably have about half a dozen teams that are in the bottom 1% of D1. Not sure that whoever gets the auto bid from that league earned much of anything.

That's the problem. I guarantee most of the mediocre, hovering around (or just under) .500 teams from the P4s would easily win the worst of the non P4 conferences. During the Wynn era at Washington, when the Huskies struggled to win more than 3 or 4 conference games, they routinely wiped the floor with everybody from the WCC other than Gonzaga (they didn't play each other). This included schools like BYU, Portland and San Diego when they were all top 4 teams in the WCC. If the worst or second to worst team from the Pac would've been at least the 2nd best team in the WCC, that says something to me. And there are certainly weaker conferences than the WCC.

I think the play in games should be the worst 4 teams, and that pretty much guarantees it's gonna be an auto bid from a really poor conference.

 

[nwhoopfan]

That just made me think of something else @Bigboote . What about when a team with an overall losing record gets an auto bid? To me those teams have no business being in the Tourney. I would much rather have a mediocre Big State U. who went 8-10 in a P4 in there than a terrible Southwest Central Delta Tech or something like that who managed to win a few games at the end of the year against several other terrible directional schools, but couldn't manage to win 50% of their games during the entirety of the season.


(these are obviously fictitious names of schools to avoid offending the fan base of any actual school)

 

[DefenseBB]

So Big Sky and Mountain West are not considered mid majors?

And would the WAC winner constitute the easiest bid into the dance?

Yes, they are mid-majors but in reviewing all the conferences only the ones I listed had who had a “possible” second or third team so the conferences you stated must be really pathetic from a NET perspective with only 1 team under 100 (if that).

 

[Bigboote]

What about a conference like the NEC this year? They probably have about half a dozen teams that are in the bottom 1% of D1. Not sure that whoever gets the auto bid from that league earned much of anything.

That's the problem. I guarantee most of the mediocre, hovering around (or just under) .500 teams from the P4s would easily win the worst of the non P4 conferences. During the Wynn era at Washington, when the Huskies struggled to win more than 3 or 4 conference games, they routinely wiped the floor with everybody from the WCC other than Gonzaga (they didn't play each other). This included schools like BYU, Portland and San Diego when they were all top 4 teams in the WCC. If the worst or second to worst team from the Pac would've been at least the 2nd best team in the WCC, that says something to me. And there are certainly weaker conferences than the WCC.

I think the play in games should be the worst 4 teams, and that pretty much guarantees it's gonna be an auto bid from a really poor conference.

I have no argument with what you wrote (although it sounds close to an argument that there shouldn't be any automatic bids at all). My thinking is, it's in the rules that each conference winner gets into the tournament, but there's no rule that says the 12th place team from the Big Ten gets in.* And till three or four years ago, that meant all the conference winners played on the opening weekend. I think that should still be the case (I'm a traditional folk musician, I can't help it), and the NCAA itself hedges by having two play-in games for auto qualifiers and two for at-large teams. If the play-in games are just for the worst teams, make them all for 16 seeds, but they're not. I'd just rather they have all four play-in games for qualifiers.

Regarding your second post, I have no problem changing the rules, but not willy-nilly one year because a team has a losing record.

*I also have a problem with conferences composed of educational institutions that ignore counting (I took a course in counting theory, I can't help it). I'd favor punishing the Big Ten for having 18 teams and the Big 12 for having 16. Heck, add the ACC for having schools on the Pacific coast.

 

[nwhoopfan]

@Bigboote I'm with you on the numerically challenged conferences. I'm curious to see what the new Pac-whatever is going to call itself. As long as it existed it's name matched the number of members, hopefully they can maintain that.

edit--don't even get me started on the geographically challenged conferences

 

[nwhoopfan]

I'm not really advocating for eliminating auto bids. Conference tourneys are fun, always some compelling stories emerge, it's nice to see those student athletes get their chance at going to the Big Dance. Just recognizing that some of those AQs would go pretty close to winless in P4 conferences. It's an apples to oranges comparison.

 

[typhaon]

I don't know what the rest of the season holds for Richmond and Villanova, but I know should Fairfield lose in their conference tournament to a team like Quinnipiac (#82), any potential at-large comparison vs. those 2 teams will start with... Fairfield defeated both... on the road.

 

[DefenseBB]

I don't know what the rest of the season holds for Richmond and Villanova, but I know should Fairfield lose in their conference tournament to a team like Quinnipiac (#82), any potential at-large comparison vs. those 2 teams will start with... Fairfield defeated both... on the road.

Sadly, the Stags lost to Howard and that killed their NET. Have I mentioned I am not a huge fan of NET.? I just think it needs more refinement

 

[JwittersPAC]

If UConn was not in the Big East would not the Big East be considered a Mid-Major for Women’s basketball?

 

[visitingcock]

If UConn was not in the Big East would not the Big East be considered a Mid-Major for Women’s basketball?

Yes but a second contender for Sweet 16 or even Elite Eight will occasionally arise.

 

[typhaon]

Sadly, the Stags lost to Howard and that killed their NET. Have I mentioned I am not a huge fan of NET.? I just think it needs more refinement

They're still #41 - which has them 3 spots behind Princeton #38 and 7 ahead of Richmond #48... which, depending on how you consider Villanova #27, has the Stags 2nd or 3rd in NET for mid-majors.

There's a lot of basketball left. These things tend to work themselves out.

 

[nwhoopfan]

When did Missouri St. move from the Missouri Valley to CUSA? Nobody informed me.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Not that it will help them get at large bids, but a number of teams appear to be very happy about getting into conference play after struggling thru OOC. Green Bay is already 6-0 in the Horizon, 5-5 non con. Belmont 4-0 in the Missouri Valley, 4-7 OOC. Northern Iowa well on their way to 4-0 also in the MVC, 4-6 OOC.