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Message: [QUOTE="dbmill, post: 3157220, member: 2504"] More NCAA tourney bid analysis from Aaron Fitt: [URL unfurl="true"]https://d1baseball.com/projections/stock-report/postseason-stock-report-week-14-national-seed-at-large-analysis/[/URL] >American Athletic Conference (3 total bids) SAFELY IN: East Carolina ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Houston, Connecticut ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): UCF No change from last week. UConn and Houston remain on the right side of the bubble with RPIs in the 30s (No. 31 and No. 39, respectively), but the Huskies put themselves on somewhat shaky ground with a home series loss to USF, leaving them 10-11 in the American with one series left on the road at Tulane. Winning that series would put UConn in the field easily at 12-12 in the American, with a solid 9-9 record against the top 50 and a good RPI. Losing it could make things interesting, especially since UConn is down in fifth place in the conference. Should UConn lose two of three at Tulane to finish 11-13 in the American, it might need a win or two in the conference tournament to solidify its position. Houston also finishes with a tricky road series, at UCF. The Cougars are at least above .500 in the league right now at 11-10, and we think they’ll be safe if they win at least one game in Orlando to get to 12-12. And we expect that to happen. Should Houston get swept, it could be in trouble. The Knights vaulted 14 spots to No. 43 in the RPI over the last week, despite playing just two games (big midweek road wins at Miami and FAU). That RPI puts UCF back in the at-large hunt, but its final series vs. Houston is must-win. If the Knights can take two of three at home to get to 11-13 in the American, they’ll have a shot at an at-large, especially with a win or two in the conference tournament. Sweeping the series would probably put them solidly in. Right now, UCF is one of our first five teams out of the field, but they control their own destiny.< [/QUOTE]

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