Winning close games: the one potential chink in the armor?

[alexrgct]

Over the past couple of seasons, UConn has lost nine games. Eight of those games (Baylor 2011, Notre Dame 1 2012, St Johns 2012, Notre Dame 4 2012, Notre Dame 1 2013, Baylor 2013, Notre Dame 2 2013, Notre Dame 3 2013) were very close within he final couple of minutes of regulation. The "knock" on UConn became that the Huskies couldn't close. Too young, perhaps? No clear team leader? Not a clear enough identity? So used to teams cowering before the UConn jersey that they didn't know how to respond when a team actually fought back? Karma- i.e., Geno, the Huskies and their fans had enjoyed so much prosperity since 1994 that they deserved a few kicks in the shorts? A sign of the foundations of a dynasty crumbling just a bit? Theories abounded. There may have been merit in some of them. Others were ridiculous. At any rate, people sought an explanation.

Well, a funny thing happened in the NCAA tourney. UConn finally figured out what lineup to use, Breanna proved that her play in the BET was no fluke (if anything, it didn't hold a candle to her play in the NCAAs), and all of a sudden, UConn was dominating like it was 2009...against better teams (other than Stanford 2009 perhaps- that team was loaded). Baylor, the favorite to repeat, bowed out shockingly in the third round, and the only teams of the remaining eight who seemed to surge with confidence as a result of the upset were Louisville and UConn. Not coincidentally, those teams met in the finals, during which UConn promptly shredded Lousiville like it was a second-round game at Gampel. Notre Dame? Pounded mercilessly by Breanna, KML, Bria, and Kelly, all would-be comebacks repelled with shocking, cold-blooded ease. 40 minutes of dread? Perhaps...for Kentucky, who watched in horror as UConn went on a run to end the first half that would make the best teams UConn has ever fielded proud.

In short, the interim solution to "UConn can't close in tight games" was simply not to have any. Nice work if you can get it.

Next season, UConn figures to be even better than this season. Despite losing an incredibly valuable player in Kelly Faris, an absolute embarrassment of talent returns, this time around more mature, more sure of their roles, and with invaluable championship swagger and experience. No one returns more talent from the 2012-13 season, which means everyone else has to hope their kids take huge leaps or that their incoming freshmen classes can make the impact UConn's 2012 class eventually did. To which, I say, not bloody likely.

The only other hope, then, has to be that UConn's pesky "tight games" problem hasn't gone away. You know that until UConn is in some such contests against other top teams and emerges victorious, teams like Maryland, Duke, maybe even ND should the teams meet in the NCAAs, maybe Tennessee should they make an appearance in Nashville with a heavily partisan crowd at their backs, will hold out the hope that they can exert their will upon UConn late if they can manage to keep the game close to the end.

A path to a repeat NC for UConn may hinge on two questions:

• Will UConn, in fact, be seriously challenged next season?
• If so, have the issues behind late-game stumbles been resolved?

What say you?

 

[baggerbob]

In response to will they be seriously challenged next season, Maybe. My feeling is if their are, they will close out the game, you now have 2 closers in KML, and Breanna. You may be able to stop one, but not both, and if you try Stef or Bria will beat you.

 

[bruinbball]

I posted on this same topic a couple of times last year but it didn't get any traction. The last game we won when the final margin was a one possession game was the Baylor game in 2011 on Bria's big shot. I thought we'd have to win one to win the tourney last year but we man handled ND and Baylor didn't show up to the party. I really don't think it will be an issue this coming year. I see another string of 10+ point wins......

(on edit)
.....by the other team. MOJO we are doomed

 

[DobbsRover2]

What say you?

I say you need to learn how to define "close game" properly. In 2002 UConn won a late season game over VTech by 9 points and I was sweating bullets and had hallucinations that the sky was falling. In a good and fair world during the next couple years, a close game for the Huskies should be limited to those that approach but do not go under the double-digit-lead mark. Anything other than that should just not be allowed by the laws of nature.

Generally we're comfortable doing things we do a lot (like the Huskies leading teams by huge margins) than things we don't do a lot (like the Huskies being in close games). In tight games, the Huskies simply were more tense, telegraphed passes for ND, and didn't finish that well in the paint in the late minutes. In the DT years, for all of the awesome 3s we remember her hitting in the desperate moments of key tough games, the main factor to UConn winning was simply that she was unstoppable in the final minutes when she backed down a Stacey Dales, or used the same type play the next year in the 2003 semis against Texas for a late 3-point play, or combined with JMo to tear up the Vols inside in the 2004 NC. For the most part, the opponents knew what was coming, but they couldn't stop it. This year during the regular season the Huskies did not have the IT girl, and in the tourney whenever things started to get remotely tight in the 2nd half, the opposition got Stewied.

 

[meyers7]

In short, the interim solution to "UConn can't close in tight games" was simply not to have any. Nice work if you can get it.

I don't really see anyone challenging next year. I think they will be up for the "big" games, so don't think they will be a problem.

Maybe have some trouble in an unexpected game, kinda like St. John's a few years ago (though we still won rather easily). I could see Louisville giving us trouble since we will probably end up playing them 3 times next year.

 

[EricLA]

Good topic and good comments. I just do want to point out that of all the teams next year, probably Duke is the best besides UCONN in that they lost less that we did (only Vernery was a senior and she wasn't a starter), and they have a great class coming in (5 star recruits Greenwell, Chidolm and Cooper and 4-star Holland). Also, like UCONN, they get a guard back from injury, but in their case it's a starter and uber guard in Gray.

Actually, I'd say Duke loses less to graduation than we do, and has a much more talented and larger freshman class coming in. Not sure that their freshmen will make a huge impact their first year as there are so many talented players ahead of them, but they have a great class.

Yes UCONN will be better, but not deeper. Duke will be better as well and they hung tough with UCONN for a full half last year. I could see a NC game of Duke-UCONN easily. It will be an interesting matchup for sure...

It's easy to point to what we bring back and say "nah - we won't be challenged", but I'm sure all the Duke players will be improving in the off season just like UCONN players and everyone else. Do I think we win? Sure. But it has the makings of a great game.

Lastly, I think confidence and chemistry will be much improved. Not so much improved from the NCAA run, but improved from the regular season performances we saw. I think they take what they did in the title run and improve on it. But confidence is key as it really hurt Stewie for about 20 games last year...

 

[UConnCat]

Although the Notre Dame game never felt close in the 2nd half, ND did cut the lead to 6 points with 6 minutes to go. UConn's next possession included 3 offensive rebounds by Kelly Faris and ended with an incredible lay-up by Breanna Stewart. Game over. Kelly was not going to let that game become close(r).

Late game execution is all about guards and confidence. I expect Bria, Moriah, Brianna and KML to play with incredible confidence next year and handle any situation thrown at them.

 

[Icebear]

The solution is simple. Take no prisoners and have no close games.

Something we demonstrated through the tournament.

 

[Wonkster]

The solution is simple. Take no prisoners and have no close games. Something we demonstrated through the tournament.

Years ago the Duke men's team used to routinely step on their opponent's neck by getting off to a 40-point lead. All they got for it was abuse from opposing fans who charged Duke with unsportsmanlike behavior.

 

[pap49cba]

Good topic and good comments. I just do want to point out that of all the teams next year, probably Duke is the best besides UCONN in that they lost less that we did (only Vernery was a senior and she wasn't a starter), and they have a great class coming in (5 star recruits Greenwell, Chidolm and Cooper and 4-star Holland). Also, like UCONN, they get a guard back from injury, but in their case it's a starter and uber guard in Gray.

Actually, I'd say Duke loses less to graduation than we do, and has a much more talented and larger freshman class coming in. Not sure that their freshmen will make a huge impact their first year as there are so many talented players ahead of them, but they have a great class.

Yes UCONN will be better, but not deeper. Duke will be better as well and they hung tough with UCONN for a full half last year. I could see a NC game of Duke-UCONN easily. It will be an interesting matchup for sure...

It's easy to point to what we bring back and say "nah - we won't be challenged", but I'm sure all the Duke players will be improving in the off season just like UCONN players and everyone else. Do I think we win? Sure. But it has the makings of a great game.

Lastly, I think confidence and chemistry will be much improved. Not so much improved from the NCAA run, but improved from the regular season performances we saw. I think they take what they did in the title run and improve on it. But confidence is key as it really hurt Stewie for about 20 games last year...

But you left out a key challenge for Duke.... They have the same coach.

 

[UcMiami]

I think the answer to #2 is yes. It starts with guards and especially this year with four of those games it mostly comes down to guard play - one freshman, one junior really struggling to fine her game, one senior playing on 1.5 legs, and one sophomore not playing on 1 leg. You also just listed close losses not close wins.
And really - you are looking at a single team ... ND.
2010-11 - Uconn 3/1 vs ND with only one win a blow out. Close win against Baylor, close win against WV and GT, (blow out loss at Stanford)
2011-12 - Uconn 1/3 vs ND (1/2 in close games) close loss to Baylor (40-0 season), close loss to StJ (shocker avenged 3 wks later), close wins Stanford and Louisville
2012-13 - Uconn 1/3 vs ND (0/3 in close games) close loss to Baylor, close win against StJ.
So 10-11 was 5/1 in games 10 points or under
11-12 was 3/4
12-13 was 1/4
For a three year record of 9/9 - drop ND out and it is 6/3. Did we go 90-0 over the stretch ... NO, but nobody expected that except maybe TonyC.

In the last 14 seasons (back to 2000) Uconn has averaged 2.8 losses/yr. (An amazing number!) They have probably average between 5 and 10 'close' games a year over that period. And no team has ever had the run that ND had against us the last 2 years. But every year except probably 2008-10 during the 90 win streak there have been a few teams that truly came into games expecting to win.

 

[phil sampieri]

Over the past couple of seasons, UConn has lost nine games. Eight of those games (Baylor 2011, Notre Dame 1 2012, St Johns 2012, Notre Dame 4 2012, Notre Dame 1 2013, Baylor 2013, Notre Dame 2 2013, Notre Dame 3 2013) were very close within he final couple of minutes of regulation. The "knock" on UConn became that the Huskies couldn't close. Too young, perhaps? No clear team leader? Not a clear enough identity? So used to teams cowering before the UConn jersey that they didn't know how to respond when a team actually fought back? Karma- i.e., Geno, the Huskies and their fans had enjoyed so much prosperity since 1994 that they deserved a few kicks in the shorts? A sign of the foundations of a dynasty crumbling just a bit? Theories abounded. There may have been merit in some of them. Others were ridiculous. At any rate, people sought an explanation.

Well, a funny thing happened in the NCAA tourney. UConn finally figured out what lineup to use, Breanna proved that her play in the BET was no fluke (if anything, it didn't hold a candle to her play in the NCAAs), and all of a sudden, UConn was dominating like it was 2009...against better teams (other than Stanford 2009 perhaps- that team was loaded). Baylor, the favorite to repeat, bowed out shockingly in the third round, and the only teams of the remaining eight who seemed to surge with confidence as a result of the upset were Louisville and UConn. Not coincidentally, those teams met in the finals, during which UConn promptly shredded Lousiville like it was a second-round game at Gampel. Notre Dame? Pounded mercilessly by Breanna, KML, Bria, and Kelly, all would-be comebacks repelled with shocking, cold-blooded ease. 40 minutes of dread? Perhaps...for Kentucky, who watched in horror as UConn went on a run to end the first half that would make the best teams UConn has ever fielded proud.

In short, the interim solution to "UConn can't close in tight games" was simply not to have any. Nice work if you can get it.

Next season, UConn figures to be even better than this season. Despite losing an incredibly valuable player in Kelly Faris, an absolute embarrassment of talent returns, this time around more mature, more sure of their roles, and with invaluable championship swagger and experience. No one returns more talent from the 2012-13 season, which means everyone else has to hope their kids take huge leaps or that their incoming freshmen classes can make the impact UConn's 2012 class eventually did. To which, I say, not bloody likely.

The only other hope, then, has to be that UConn's pesky "tight games" problem hasn't gone away. You know that until UConn is in some such contests against other top teams and emerges victorious, teams like Maryland, Duke, maybe even ND should the teams meet in the NCAAs, maybe Tennessee should they make an appearance in Nashville with a heavily partisan crowd at their backs, will hold out the hope that they can exert their will upon UConn late if they can manage to keep the game close to the end.

A path to a repeat NC for UConn may hinge on two questions:

• Will UConn, in fact, be seriously challenged next season?
• If so, have the issues behind late-game stumbles been resolved?

What say you?

What it means is we are not invincible and that we palyed great teams really close. Period

 

[easttexastrash]

There will be no close games next season. ND lost Diggins and Bayor lost BG. Duke has proven that it can't compete against UCONN.

 

[pap49cba]

Is it a chink in our armor? I guess we'll find out if anyone plays Uconn close.

 

[huskyharry]

The problem with close games often came down to guard play and particularly, the guards making the correct decision with the ball.
I think Bria and MoJeff will be much improved & much more consistent next year. The team will certainly miss all the intangibles that Kelly brought to the table, but the overall prognosis is quite good.
Tennessee will be good.
Duke will be good, Stanford will be good, Baylor will be good, Notre Dame will be good, Louisville will be good and UNC may be quite good, depending upon how quickly their freshmen develop.