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Yes I realize there's still another game. But more gets set in stone than you think after just one slate of games. Most programs play four OOC games max, with at least two of them typically being buy games. That means we already have a pretty good idea of which conferences are going to rate well.
It would seem obvious that the teams in the better conferences will have advantages over teams from inferior leagues, but it doesn't always work out that way. You'd rather play one SEC West team and a bunch of beatable opponents than play six SEC West teams in addition to another brutal OOC program. That way, if you beat an SEC West team week one, you then have the luxury of putting it on cruise control for a while and nobody can question your mettle because you've already proven it. Auburn's odds of making the playoffs were lower than Washington's coming into the season despite being their equivalent or better as a team and having a larger margin of error. Essentially, the way team's structure their schedules is hugely determinative in how important their opening games are, and the teams that do play critical week one games will play a disproportionate role in shaping the CFB hierarchy from that point on.
Winners:
The SEC - No conference is better at gaming the polls. They do it every year. The SEC West, in particular, has mastered the art of of scheduling a single P5 opponent (usually at a "neutral" site close to SEC territory) and then loading up on cream-puffs in their other OOC bouts. This gives them the luxury of emptying the tank for that one game, securing the conferences reputation, and then falling back on their conference SOS to justify the rest of the OOC schedule. And since their teams are already highly regarded coming into the season, you know they'll benefit from more than their fair share of confirmation bias.
Frankly, I don't blame them. The conference is loaded. LSU and Auburn both took down top ten teams. That may not seem like much, but a lot of conferences can go an entire season without securing an OOC victory over a top ten team. The fact that the SEC did this (Ole Miss and Alabama also looked awfully good against P5 teams) is significant because they already had a head start by virtue of reputation. Now they're even further ahead. If Texas A&M somehow beats Clemson next weekend, you might as well cancel the playoff and let the SEC West play a double round robin.
Notre Dame - The Irish are on the opposite end of the extreme. They put together a very tough schedule, with few cupcakes, but managed to do so in a way that gave them a good chance to win every game. Michigan, Stanford, and Florida State - probably the three best teams on the schedule - all drew the Irish in South Bend. That opens things up for a limited, but well-coached team in the same way it did a few years ago when they made their run to the BCS title game. I don't think they're actually that good, but you know they'll get every call in those games and people will be all too happy to reward them for their tough schedule.
Stanford - Notre Dame's win over Michigan ends up being a big boost for them, too. Having already taken care of a pretty good SDSU team, Stanford's schedule sets up pretty well - they should handle an overrated USC team next weekend, and if they do that, their tilt with Notre Dame may become a de facto playoff game given their soft schedule from that point on.
Losers:
Washington - So the thing about playing one SEC West team followed by a mediocre slate of conference foes is that you actually have to win the first game. Nobody's going to care how far they traveled or how close they played them. This is a program already operating at a disadvantage from a perception standpoint - not a lot of people watch their games, not a ton of elite talent on the roster, shaky conference, etc. The fact that they played to stereotype is not a feather in their cap, and I suspect they'll be on the outside looking in even in the event that they win out. Is it fair? Well, kind of. You bet your season on that one game and would have been richly rewarded had you won.
Miami/ACC Coastal - What a disaster. After all the talk about the U's resurgence, you come out and get embarrassed by a team people weren't even that high on. Everything I said about Washington applies to them - your entire season's work will now be tainted by the perception that you can't beat the big boys. Meanwhile, UNC loses to Cal.
The Big 12 - Yikes. Texas, in year two of the Tom Herman era, loses to a Maryland program in complete disarray. Texas Tech gets smoked by Ole Miss (how long is Kingsbury's leesh?). Kansas loses to something called Nicholls and K-State squeaks by South Dakota State. That's 40% of your league and save for West Virginia nobody else did anything of note. I don't foresee this conference sending a team to the playoff.
Michigan - What a blown opportunity. This was the one game you had to win. Your schedule would have set up favorably assuming you had held on - you get Wisconsin and Penn State at home this year. You could have tripped up in East Lansing or something and still played your way in with a victory @ Ohio State. Now the margin for error is nothing. Unbelievable to come out and look that unprepared with all that talent. Totally on the coaching staff.
Appalachian State - I feel bad for putting them here, but that was a huge choke, no way around it.
It would seem obvious that the teams in the better conferences will have advantages over teams from inferior leagues, but it doesn't always work out that way. You'd rather play one SEC West team and a bunch of beatable opponents than play six SEC West teams in addition to another brutal OOC program. That way, if you beat an SEC West team week one, you then have the luxury of putting it on cruise control for a while and nobody can question your mettle because you've already proven it. Auburn's odds of making the playoffs were lower than Washington's coming into the season despite being their equivalent or better as a team and having a larger margin of error. Essentially, the way team's structure their schedules is hugely determinative in how important their opening games are, and the teams that do play critical week one games will play a disproportionate role in shaping the CFB hierarchy from that point on.
Winners:
The SEC - No conference is better at gaming the polls. They do it every year. The SEC West, in particular, has mastered the art of of scheduling a single P5 opponent (usually at a "neutral" site close to SEC territory) and then loading up on cream-puffs in their other OOC bouts. This gives them the luxury of emptying the tank for that one game, securing the conferences reputation, and then falling back on their conference SOS to justify the rest of the OOC schedule. And since their teams are already highly regarded coming into the season, you know they'll benefit from more than their fair share of confirmation bias.
Frankly, I don't blame them. The conference is loaded. LSU and Auburn both took down top ten teams. That may not seem like much, but a lot of conferences can go an entire season without securing an OOC victory over a top ten team. The fact that the SEC did this (Ole Miss and Alabama also looked awfully good against P5 teams) is significant because they already had a head start by virtue of reputation. Now they're even further ahead. If Texas A&M somehow beats Clemson next weekend, you might as well cancel the playoff and let the SEC West play a double round robin.
Notre Dame - The Irish are on the opposite end of the extreme. They put together a very tough schedule, with few cupcakes, but managed to do so in a way that gave them a good chance to win every game. Michigan, Stanford, and Florida State - probably the three best teams on the schedule - all drew the Irish in South Bend. That opens things up for a limited, but well-coached team in the same way it did a few years ago when they made their run to the BCS title game. I don't think they're actually that good, but you know they'll get every call in those games and people will be all too happy to reward them for their tough schedule.
Stanford - Notre Dame's win over Michigan ends up being a big boost for them, too. Having already taken care of a pretty good SDSU team, Stanford's schedule sets up pretty well - they should handle an overrated USC team next weekend, and if they do that, their tilt with Notre Dame may become a de facto playoff game given their soft schedule from that point on.
Losers:
Washington - So the thing about playing one SEC West team followed by a mediocre slate of conference foes is that you actually have to win the first game. Nobody's going to care how far they traveled or how close they played them. This is a program already operating at a disadvantage from a perception standpoint - not a lot of people watch their games, not a ton of elite talent on the roster, shaky conference, etc. The fact that they played to stereotype is not a feather in their cap, and I suspect they'll be on the outside looking in even in the event that they win out. Is it fair? Well, kind of. You bet your season on that one game and would have been richly rewarded had you won.
Miami/ACC Coastal - What a disaster. After all the talk about the U's resurgence, you come out and get embarrassed by a team people weren't even that high on. Everything I said about Washington applies to them - your entire season's work will now be tainted by the perception that you can't beat the big boys. Meanwhile, UNC loses to Cal.
The Big 12 - Yikes. Texas, in year two of the Tom Herman era, loses to a Maryland program in complete disarray. Texas Tech gets smoked by Ole Miss (how long is Kingsbury's leesh?). Kansas loses to something called Nicholls and K-State squeaks by South Dakota State. That's 40% of your league and save for West Virginia nobody else did anything of note. I don't foresee this conference sending a team to the playoff.
Michigan - What a blown opportunity. This was the one game you had to win. Your schedule would have set up favorably assuming you had held on - you get Wisconsin and Penn State at home this year. You could have tripped up in East Lansing or something and still played your way in with a victory @ Ohio State. Now the margin for error is nothing. Unbelievable to come out and look that unprepared with all that talent. Totally on the coaching staff.
Appalachian State - I feel bad for putting them here, but that was a huge choke, no way around it.
