Will the Huskies break the all-time assist record?

[oldude]

Last season, UConn broke the all-time NCAA single season assist record of 850, held by none other than the 2013-14 UConn Huskies. The new record of 868 assists was achieved in only 37 games vs the 2013-14 record which was achieved in 40 games. At times last season watching UConn pass the ball was like watching a beautifully choreographed ballet, with constant movement, picks, cutting and precise, and often times spectacular passing. No less than 5 Huskies tallied over 100 assists: Saniya, Lou, Danger, Kia & Gabby.

After watching two exhibition games, I am amazed to say that this year’s team may well be a better passing team than last year's team for several reasons. Geno has added a few wrinkles to the offense, most notably, the Huskies are going to run a lot more pick and roll, particularly with Z setting a pick and then slashing to the basket to receive a pass from anyone of a number of players. Danger has made a huge sophomore leap and she is dishing out assists that are reminiscent of Mo in her Jr or Sr seasons. Pheesa, the one starter on last season’s team that did not have at least 100 assists, totaled 11 in the two exhibition games.

Also in the two exhibitions, Z & MW demonstrated their ability to drop dimes on their teammates. The other players are still learning to work together, but they are clearly looking to pass the ball first, sometimes even at the expense of an open shot. Everyone on the team appears to have been infected by an obsession to pass the ball to open teammates. The players actually seem to enjoy making a great pass every bit as much as making a great shot.

Finally, the Huskies shoot the ball incredibly well from the perimeter and finish exceptionally well at the basket. It’s one thing to make a great pass, but if the shooter misses the shot it doesn’t mean a thing. Just about everyone on this team is capable of finishing at the basket and shooting the ball well.

If the Huskies go the distance this season, 38 games worth, I would not be surprised if they shatter last year’s record for assists in a single season.

 

[bags27]

a perfect analysis and therefore very likely prediction! thanks so much oldude.

 

[rugbymate]

If Sundays game is any indication then they might shatter the record....starters with 27 assists and nine players with 2 or more suggest that finding the open man is , as always, a high priority for this team.
To answer your question...I'll take the over on 868 assists and my guess is that it will be close to 900.

 

[BroadwayVa]

a perfect analysis and therefore very likely prediction! thanks so much oldude.

Bags--you are as right as ever. But in reading your comment --a silly thought pass through my vacuum. An analysis by Dude is perfect or near perfect as is Joe and Tonyc--I feel like a lost soul in the things I missed that they have seen. So you could have just said : an analysis etc.
EDIT: There are others that analyze with the best, Coco comes to mind.

 

[oldude]

If Sundays game is any indication then they might shatter the record....starters with 27 assists and nine players with 2 or more suggest that finding the open man is , as always, a high priority for this team.
To answer your question...I'll take the over on 868 assists and my guess is that it will be close to 900.

We should set up a pool. I think 900 is a pretty good number. If the Huskies average 25 assists per game and make it to the National Championship, that would be exactly 900 assists.

 

[Huskee11]

Terrific analysis oldude, some great observations based upon what we have seen thus far in the two exhibitions.

One minor additional point in support of your analysis - I think they will score more points than last year, hence more assists.

Last year they scored 3222 points, averaging 87.1 points per game.

Admittedly need to temper it a bit since we haven`t seen a regular season game yet against DI competition. But, anyone who saw the first quarter against Ashland had to be simply blown away - scoring 45 points and making it look practically effortless.

They will likely be playing up tempo like they did on Sunday more than last year, and that should help lead to high scoring.

So, at this point I think they will average at least 90 ppg and will have more assists.

Only other caveat is that there will be a lot of blowouts, probably more than usual. Gene always calls off the dogs, the pace of the game slows and the bench players don`t score as easily. More bench players to give those minutes to as well.

 

[oldude]

Terrific analysis oldude, some great observations based upon what we have seen thus far in the two exhibitions.

One minor additional point in support of your analysis - I think they will score more points than last year, hence more assists.

Last year they scored 3222 points, averaging 87.1 points per game.

Admittedly need to temper it a bit since we haven`t seen a regular season game yet against DI competition. But, anyone who saw the first quarter against Ashland had to be simply blown away - scoring 45 points and making it look practically effortless.

They will likely be playing up tempo like they did on Sunday more than last year, and that should help lead to high scoring.

So, at this point I think they will average at least 90 ppg and will have more assists.

Only other caveat is that there will be a lot of blowouts, probably more than usual. Gene always calls off the dogs, the pace of the game slows and the bench players don`t score as easily. More bench players to give those minutes to as well.

Excellent points, particularly that more up tempo play will lead to more points. I believe the last thing Geno wants to see is another game like MS St where an opponent walks the ball up the court and works the shot clock, which is why I expect the Huskies to press and trap a lot more this season.

 

[Golden Husky]

We should set up a pool. I think 900 is a pretty good number. If the Huskies average 25 assists per game and make it to the National Championship, that would be exactly 900 assists.

Put me down for the over.

 

[rugbymate]

Excellent points, particularly that more up tempo play will lead to more points. I believe the last thing Geno wants to see is another game like MS St where an opponent walks the ball up the court and works the shot clock, which is why I expect the Huskies to press and trap a lot more this season.

Totally agree...further, with more depth they will be able to be much more aggressive defensively, particularly CD. My guess is that our defense will play up close and personal particularly when Z is in the game and can act as a back stop if someone gets beat off the dribble. Look for this team to have a lot more steals this year. So while we are on predictions, 15 % more steals this year than last

 

[Ozimoto]

I will reserve judgement until we see how Sunday (unfortunately I will be on a plane during the game so may not be able to see it) before I am ready to get too excited. They did look really good in the second exhibition though.

 

[SVCBeercats]

If the Huskies go the distance this season, 38 games worth, I would not be surprised if they shatter last year’s record for assists in a single season.

Not only won't you be surprised, you will be expecting the shattering of the assists record. Last year their 863 assists were accomplished in 37 games or 23.32 assists per game. If they get to the NCCA finals, then the will have played 38 games by my reckoning (29 reg. games, 3 AAC playoffs, and 6 in NCAA). So 38 times 23.32 yields 886 assists. The primary players' last season's FG%s were Phee – 68%, Lou – 49%, Gabby – 58%, Kia – 48%, Crystal Dangerfield – 40% with Z averaging about 52% for her freshman and sophomore seasons at Duke. There is a very high probability of most any pass becoming an assist. Assuming similar FG%s they should average easily 25 assists per game or 950 assists. Throw in the others (and you know Meg will contribute more) and they are north of 1,000 assists. Perhaps I am being too optimistic, but I feel certain they will blow by 1,000 assists. By the way they would need to average 26.32 assists per game to get 1,000 assists or 3 more assists per game.. Again assuming 38 games. The more I type 1,000 assists; the more I still believe it! Certainly 900 will be made in the shade!

Oldude, thanks for spotting my error relative to the number of possible games.

 

[oldude]

Not only won't you be surprise, you will be expecting the shattering of the assists record. Last year their 863 assists were accomplished in 37 games or 23.32 assists per game. If they get to the NCCA finals, then the will have played 39 games by my reckoning (29 reg. games, 4 AAC playoffs, and 6 in NCAA). So 39 times 23.32 yields 909 assists. The primary players' last season's FG%s were Phee – 68%, Lou – 49%, Gabby – 58%, Kia – 48%, Crystal Dangerfield – 40% with Z averaging about 52% for her freshman and sophomore season. There is a very high probability of most any pass becoming an assist. Assuming similar FG%s they should average easily 25 assists per game or 975 assists. Throw in the others (and you know Meg will contribute more) and they are north of 1,000 assists. Perhaps i am being too optimistic, but I feel certain they will blow by 1,000 assists. By the way they would need to average 25.64 assists per game to get 1,000 assists. Again assuming 39 games. The more I type 1,000 assists; the more I believe it!

I like your optimism, but I need to point out there can only be 38 games maximum (only 3 AAC tournament games).

 

[SVCBeercats]

I like your optimism, but I need to point out there can only be 38 games maximum (only 3 AAC tournament games).

See my corrections. A bit harder but can be done!

 

[oldude]

See my corrections. A bit harder but can be done!

SVC, technically you were correct the first time, but only if UConn finished 5th or lower in the AAC regular season where they could potentially play 4 tournament games. However, such a virtually inconceivable result for the Huskies, who have never even lost an AAC game, would probably result in the end of the universe as we know it.

 

[MilfordHusky]

With one more game this year, I like our chances. Among other things, Crystal has taken a big leap and Z is a great finisher. I think Meg will help as well. Plus, Napheesa is dropping dimes this season. Can we get 6 players with 100 assists apiece?? I think so.