Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="JoePgh, post: 2979485, member: 1131"] As is often the case when a small/fast team plays a big and (relatively) slow team, the key comparison will be between UConn's transition points and Baylor's second-chance points. Whoever wins that contest will probably win the game. If UConn hurts Baylor in transition in the early going, they are likely to send either Brown or Cox back on defense (or send one of them to the bench) to control UConn's transition game. Either way, Baylor's ability to get offensive rebounds and second-chance points will be impaired. On the other hand, if UConn has so much trouble clearing its defensive boards that it can't make an impact in transition, then Baylor is going to have a big (in two meanings) advantage, and will probably win the game. It shouldn't even be a question whether UConn's first-shot offense is more efficient than Baylor's -- that has to be the case (and by a significant margin) for UConn to stay in the game. Assuming that is true, if UConn can limit second chances and score transition points off defensive rebounds, then UConn should win handily and a blowout is possible. I agree that the defensive model used against South Carolina's combination of Coates and Wilson will be used again, and it will make it difficult for Baylor's guards to get passes in to the post. If either Brown or Cox can come out and make 15-footers consistently (which neither Wilson nor Coates could do), that will defeat that defensive strategy, but I don't think Baylor's bigs can do that. So the Baylor guards will have to open fire from 3-point range, and hopefully they won't be very efficient at that -- less efficient than Kaela Davis and Alicia Gray were for South Carolina in their game against UConn two years ago. I think the overall probabilities are in UConn's favor, but not by more than a 60-40 margin, and maybe less than that. [/QUOTE]

Verification: First name of men's bb coach

Forum statistics

Threads: 164,397

Messages: 4,394,283

Members: 10,208

Latest member: jskwrite