Why UConn never loses in the championship game | The Boneyard

Why UConn never loses in the championship game

oldude

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UConn is 11-7 in national semifinal games, something any other WBB coach would be ecstatic to achieve. As everyone on the BY knows, once the Huskies make it to a national championship game they are an impossible 11-0 against the very best competition in WBB. Surely, there should have been at least one championship game where the Huskies fell to a team with superior talent or perhaps just didn’t play their best game when it was absolutely needed, but that never happened. Why not?

Talent is certainly a factor, but all the FF teams are incredibly talented and you can make a very good case that UConn won championships when they arguably were not the most talented team in the country. 2013 stands out as one such championship.

You might also argue that UConn’s game preparation is a significant factor, but the truth is that every one of the FF teams has a week prior to the FF in which they thoroughly break down and game plan not only for the team they are scheduled to play in the semis, but also both potential teams they could play in the finals. If they win their semi, the coaches basically pull an “all-nighter” to refine their game plan for their championship opponent so they can roll it out to their team the next day in meetings and practice. This type of preparation is SOP for the FF.

The question again is that in 11 previous games why hasn’t UConn ever lost a national championship game? I respectfully suggest that there are three key factors which explain UConn’s dominance:

Conditioning – To play and win a national semifinal against a very good team, your starters will need to play a lot of minutes and exert maximum effort. The games are played at night and the players probably don’t get to sleep until sometime after midnight. That basically leaves them about a day and a half to get ready to play another great team in the finals. That is a fast turnaround to prepare a team for another monumental effort.

All teams run wind sprints and lift weights, but UConn is the best conditioned team in the nation, both mentally and physically because they are constantly challenged in everything they do. One of the comments that college coaches make after watching a UConn practice is how hard UConn goes in every drill during practice. Whether it’s Marine Corps physical training or the mentally and physically taxing drills that Geno and his staff devise, come March & April, the Huskies are in peak condition so that lack of sleep and a short turnaround between games becomes an advantage to be exploited.

Intelligence – Geno has frequently commented that one of the key factors that successful UConn WBB players have is “a high basketball IQ.” He says this while snapping his fingers rapidly to indicate that players have to pick up things quickly. There is no time when this is more important than the 1.5 days between the national semifinal and final. While the coaches might have been up all night putting together a brilliant game plan for the final, the ability of the players to fully grasp, embrace and execute that game plan is not a given.

A great example of UConn’s quick turnaround game planning success was the 2016 championship vs Syracuse. The Cuse had given teams fits with their relentless press, 2-3 zone and 3-pt firing offense, something UConn had not faced all season. In the final, other than a short time in the 3rd period, the Syracuse press was a non-factor. UConn picked apart the 2-3 zone and they held the Cuse to an abysmal 2-19 from the arc.

Confidence – Teams don’t get to the FF without possessing a relatively high level of confidence. My premise is that somewhere in the dark recesses of a player’s psyche there’s an element of doubt that often manifests itself when bad things invariably start to happen on the court, and things can go from bad to worse. Frankly, this has often been the case with extremely talented teams like Baylor, and even SC until this past season.

Here again UConn players are challenged constantly in practice where they frequently FAIL. We have all heard the comment that UConn doesn’t practice until they get it right. They practice until they can’t get it wrong. Add in a brutal non-conference schedule every year where UConn typically prevails against top-10 teams, and by the time the Huskies get to March they truly believe they can overcome any obstacle placed in front of them.

This past year when UCLA charged out of the gate to take an early lead against UConn in the Sweet 16 match-up, the Huskies calmly came back to overtake the Bruins and win comfortably. Even in the semi vs MS St, when the Bulldogs punched the Huskies in the face in the 1st qtr and held an 8-pt lead at the half, the Huskies fought their way back into the game, and while they eventually lost in OT, I suspect that every Husky expected to win that game right up to the time that Morgan William’s shot fell.


My final thought. Some day in the far distant future, perhaps UConn may lose a national championship game. But it ain’t gonna happen until the little Italian and his staff have moved on.
 

CocoHusky

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@oldude agree on all points but I think you missed the most significant factor why UCONN is undefeated in NC games. UCONN has always had the better team. With the exception of 2003-2004 I don't recall UCONN ever not being the favorite team in a NC game. Being favored of course doesn't guarantee anything, but it does give you a greater margin for error with all of the factors that you outlined.
 

oldude

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@oldude agree on all points but I think you missed the most significant factor why UCONN is undefeated in NC games. UCONN has always had the better team. With the exception of 2003-2004 I don't recall UCONN ever not being the favorite team in a NC game. Being favored of course doesn't guarantee anything, but it does give you a great margin for error with all of the factors that you outlined.
I agree, but part of my argument is that the best team doesn't always win. In the men's final, NC State over Houston and Villanova beating Georgetown are just a couple of games where the prohibitive favorite did not prevail. So you might think that at least once in eleven games UConn might have stumbled.
 

Golden Husky

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UConn is 11-7 in national semifinal games, something any other WBB coach would be ecstatic to achieve. As everyone on the BY knows, once the Huskies make it to a national championship game they are an impossible 11-0 against the very best competition in WBB. Surely, there should have been at least one championship game where the Huskies fell to a team with superior talent or perhaps just didn’t play their best game when it was absolutely needed, but that never happened. Why not?

Talent is certainly a factor, but all the FF teams are incredibly talented and you can make a very good case that UConn won championships when they arguably were not the most talented team in the country. 2013 stands out as one such championship.

You might also argue that UConn’s game preparation is a significant factor, but the truth is that every one of the FF teams has a week prior to the FF in which they thoroughly break down and game plan not only for the team they are scheduled to play in the semis, but also both potential teams they could play in the finals. If they win their semi, the coaches basically pull an “all-nighter” to refine their game plan for their championship opponent so they can roll it out to their team the next day in meetings and practice. This type of preparation is SOP for the FF.

The question again is that in 11 previous games why hasn’t UConn ever lost a national championship game? I respectfully suggest that there are three key factors which explain UConn’s dominance:

Conditioning – To play and win a national semifinal against a very good team, your starters will need to play a lot of minutes and exert maximum effort. The games are played at night and the players probably don’t get to sleep until sometime after midnight. That basically leaves them about a day and a half to get ready to play another great team in the finals. That is a fast turnaround to prepare a team for another monumental effort.

All teams run wind sprints and lift weights, but UConn is the best conditioned team in the nation, both mentally and physically because they are constantly challenged in everything they do. One of the comments that college coaches make after watching a UConn practice is how hard UConn goes in every drill during practice. Whether it’s Marine Corps physical training or the mentally and physically taxing drills that Geno and his staff devise, come March & April, the Huskies are in peak condition so that lack of sleep and a short turnaround between games becomes an advantage to be exploited.

Intelligence – Geno has frequently commented that one of the key factors that successful UConn WBB players have is “a high basketball IQ.” He says this while snapping his fingers rapidly to indicate that players have to pick up things quickly. There is no time when this is more important than the 1.5 days between the national semifinal and final. While the coaches might have been up all night putting together a brilliant game plan for the final, the ability of the players to fully grasp, embrace and execute that game plan is not a given.

A great example of UConn’s quick turnaround game planning success was the 2016 championship vs Syracuse. The Cuse had given teams fits with their relentless press, 2-3 zone and 3-pt firing offense, something UConn had not faced all season. In the final, other than a short time in the 3rd period, the Syracuse press was a non-factor. UConn picked apart the 2-3 zone and they held the Cuse to an abysmal 2-19 from the arc.

Confidence – Teams don’t get to the FF without possessing a relatively high level of confidence. My premise is that somewhere in the dark recesses of a player’s psyche there’s an element of doubt that often manifests itself when bad things invariably start to happen on the court, and things can go from bad to worse. Frankly, this has often been the case with extremely talented teams like Baylor, and even SC until this past season.

Here again UConn players are challenged constantly in practice where they frequently FAIL. We have all heard the comment that UConn doesn’t practice until they get it right. They practice until they can’t get it wrong. Add in a brutal non-conference schedule every year where UConn typically prevails against top-10 teams, and by the time the Huskies get to March they truly believe they can overcome any obstacle placed in front of them.

This past year when UCLA charged out of the gate to take an early lead against UConn in the Sweet 16 match-up, the Huskies calmly came back to overtake the Bruins and win comfortably. Even in the semi vs MS St, when the Bulldogs punched the Huskies in the face in the 1st qtr and held an 8-pt lead at the half, the Huskies fought their way back into the game, and while they eventually lost in OT, I suspect that every Husky expected to win that game right up to the time that Morgan William’s shot fell.


My final thought. Some day in the far distant future, perhaps UConn may lose a national championship game. But it ain’t gonna happen until the little Italian and his staff have moved on.
Danny DeVito isn't going anywhere!
 
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@oldude agree on all points but I think you missed the most significant factor why UCONN is undefeated in NC games. UCONN has always had the better team. With the exception of 2003-2004 I don't recall UCONN ever not being the favorite team in a NC game. Being favored of course doesn't guarantee anything, but it does give you a greater margin for error with all of the factors that you outlined.
And excellent analysis, oldude, but I agree with you, Coco. The point is that when they lose in the semis, it's usually (not always!) that they aren't the better team. But they win in the finals with the better team. There's somewhat of a tautology here that defies specific analysis.

Which is not to diminish their extraordinary accomplishment. Having the better team doesn't by any stretch guarantee a win; it just makes it more probable. Being 11-0 with whatever team you put on the court is mind-blowingly amazing.
 

CocoHusky

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I agree, but part of my argument is that the best team doesn't always win. In the men's final, NC State over Houston and Villanova beating Georgetown are just a couple of games where the prohibitive favorite did not prevail. So you might think that at least once in eleven games UConn might have stumbled.
I agree with you, in spite of being the prohibitive favorites chances are UCONN would have slipped up at some point. The fact that UCONN did not speaks volumes about the preparation by the UCONN staff specifically-Geno. As does this stat: In 7 of the 11 national championship games Geno was going up against a fellow HoF coach in Pat (4 times) , Muffet (2) or Tara (1). Imagine that 7 and 0 in NC games vs HoF coaches!
 

oldude

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I agree with you, in spite of being the prohibitive favorites chances are UCONN would have slipped up at some point. The fact that UCONN did not speaks volumes about the preparation by the UCONN staff specifically-Geno. As does this stat: In 7 of the 11 national championship games Geno was going up against a fellow HoF coach in Pat (4 times) , Muffet (2) or Tara (1). Imagine that 7 and 0 in NC games vs HoF coaches!
Of course the three key factors I list in my original post all start with the processes and systems that Geno has developed so wonderfully over his 40 years in coaching. I could have just said that Geno was the reason the Huskies are 11-0 in championships, but that would have been far too easy. :cool:
 

bballnut90

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@oldude agree on all points but I think you missed the most significant factor why UCONN is undefeated in NC games. UCONN has always had the better team. With the exception of 2003-2004 I don't recall UCONN ever not being the favorite team in a NC game. Being favored of course doesn't guarantee anything, but it does give you a greater margin for error with all of the factors that you outlined.


Match ups and being the better team are the the biggest factor which is a major credit to Geno for always having his players ready and putting themselves in a position as the heavy favorite. If you break down the 11 title games, you have:

1995 and 2003...Very evenly matched against Tennessee. Connecticut was technically the favorite, but a lot of people thought Tennessee might take the title in both years.

2004-Huskies were a 2 seed but were everyone's pick once the Final Four came around. Tennessee was a 1 seed, but they were hobbled with injuries and barely made it to the finals, nearly losing the last 3 tournament games. Connecticut was peaking with a massive win at home over Penn State and a solid win over Minnesota.

2000, 2002, 2010, 2014, 2015-Huskies were the heavy favorites in these despite playing the #2 team in the country. In 2000, I remember Anne Meyers stating that out of 37 writers predicting the game, 33 predicted UCONN would win. 2002, 2010, 2014 and 2015 all faced UCONN against great teams, but similar to 2000, most predicted that UCONN would win a relatively comfortable game.


2009, 2013, 2016-Huskies were a massive favorite against an overwhelmed Cinderella squad and crushed them en route to a title.

If UCONN were to make it through the semifinals in the 7 years they lost, they'd probably be 14-4 or 15-3:
1991..if they played Tennessee they would've been the underdog here, and I think Tennessee wins
1996...they'd be the favorite to beat Georgia. I think UCONN would've won that game.
2001...UCONN would have been favored, but honestly I think it would've been a total toss up against that Purdue squad.
2008...UCONN was the #1 overall seed, but Tennessee wins this one
2011...UCONN beats A&M
2012...Baylor would've been the heavy favorite and likely wins
2017...UCONN would've been the heavy favorite and I think beats SC
 
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oldude

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Match ups and being the better team are the the biggest factor which is a major credit to Geno for always having his players ready and putting themselves in a position as the heavy favorite. If you break down the 11 title games, you have:

1995 and 2003...Very evenly matched against Tennessee. Connecticut was technically the favorite, but a lot of people thought Tennessee might take the title in both years.

2004-Huskies were a 2 seed but were everyone's pick once the Final Four came around. Tennessee was a 1 seed, but they were hobbled with injuries and barely made it to the finals, nearly losing the last 3 tournament games. Connecticut was peaking with a massive win at home over Penn State and a solid win over Minnesota.

2000, 2002, 2010, 2014, 2015-Huskies were the heavy favorites in these despite playing the #2 team in the country. In 2000, I remember Anne Meyers stating that out of 37 writers predicting the game, 33 predicted UCONN would win. 2010, 2014 and 2015 all faced UCONN against great teams, but similar to 2000, most predicted that UCONN would win a relatively comfortable game.


2009, 2013, 2016-Huskies were a massive favorite against an overwhelmed Cinderella squad and crushed them en route to a title.

If UCONN were to make it through the semifinals in the 7 years they lost, they'd probably be 14-4 or 15-3. o wouldn't be as strong:
1991..if they played Tennessee they would've been the underdog here, and I think Tennessee wins
1996...they'd be the favorite to beat Georgia. I think UCONN would've won that game.
2001...UCONN would have been favored, but honestly I think it would've been a total toss up against that Purdue squad.
2008...UCONN was the #1 overall seed, but Tennessee wins this one
2011...UCONN beats A&M
2012...Baylor would've been the heavy favorite and likely wins
2017...UCONN would've been the heavy favorite and I think beats SC
Great analysis. You raise a truly interesting question. How many championships would UConn have won if they were 18-0 in national semifinals. Sadly, we'll never know... :(
 
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I read the following paragraph from the OP and think it spells out why UConn loses semis but not finals.

You might also argue that UConn’s game preparation is a significant factor, but the truth is that every one of the FF teams has a week prior to the FF in which they thoroughly break down and game plan not only for the team they are scheduled to play in the semis, but also both potential teams they could play in the finals. If they win their semi, the coaches basically pull an “all-nighter” to refine their game plan for their championship opponent so they can roll it out to their team the next day in meetings and practice. This type of preparation is SOP for the FF.

Since 2001, no team has beaten UConn in the semis and gone on to win the final. And IMO that's because the entire coaching staff and players spend the entire week before that game working out and practicing offensive and defensive plays specific to UConn and then have only 24 hours to prepare for the final. You can come up with a scouting report in 24 hours but it takes longer to prepare a team on the court, especially when they have just had what was likely the biggest win of their careers.


UConn, more than any other team doesn't change their game plan much from game to game. Reminds me of the immortal Mariano Rivera of the Yankees. Batters always knew that the next pitch was going to be a cut fastball. I've often thought that that has been a factor in a lot of their losses, that UConn is very predictable. When great coaches know exactly what a team is going to do they can come up with schemes to limit its effectiveness. Geno's philosophy has been "this is what we do, try and stop it". It works almost all the time.

Another factor, more relevant in the last 8-10 years, is that beating UConn has become most teams' "white whale". The celebration and accompanying emotional high that you can see whenever a team beats UConn comes close to the high of winning a championship. There is always a bounce after a win like that. And when the next game is less than 48 hours away there isn't enough time to come off the high and get ready for the final. I've observed that in all sports and especially in playoff situations. If I see a team celebrating a big win in a semi as if they just won the championship while their next opponent treats their win in a much calmer manner the winner of their matchup is clear to me. In their minds, Miss St won their championship when they beat UConn. They had nothing left for S Carolina.
 

oldude

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I read the following paragraph from the OP and think it spells out why UConn loses semis but not finals.



Since 2001, no team has beaten UConn in the semis and gone on to win the final. And IMO that's because the entire coaching staff and players spend the entire week before that game working out and practicing offensive and defensive plays specific to UConn and then have only 24 hours to prepare for the final. You can come up with a scouting report in 24 hours but it takes longer to prepare a team on the court, especially when they have just had what was likely the biggest win of their careers.


UConn, more than any other team doesn't change their game plan much from game to game. Reminds me of the immortal Mariano Rivera of the Yankees. Batters always knew that the next pitch was going to be a cut fastball. I've often thought that that has been a factor in a lot of their losses, that UConn is very predictable. When great coaches know exactly what a team is going to do they can come up with schemes to limit its effectiveness. Geno's philosophy has been "this is what we do, try and stop it". It works almost all the time.

Another factor, more relevant in the last 8-10 years, is that beating UConn has become most teams' "white whale". The celebration and accompanying emotional high that you can see whenever a team beats UConn comes close to the high of winning a championship. There is always a bounce after a win like that. And when the next game is less than 48 hours away there isn't enough time to come off the high and get ready for the final. I've observed that in all sports and especially in playoff situations. If I see a team celebrating a big win in a semi as if they just won the championship while their next opponent treats their win in a much calmer manner the winner of their matchup is clear to me. In their minds, Miss St won their championship when they beat UConn. They had nothing left for S Carolina.
Certainly, MS St fell into the post UConn victory blues, with a listless and uninspired effort vs SC in the finals, a team that they very nearly beat on the road in Columbia earlier in the season.
 
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Certainly, MS St fell into the post UConn victory blues, with a listless and uninspired effort vs SC in the finals, a team that they very nearly beat on the road in Columbia earlier in the season.

Exactly.

The one point I failed to mention and really my whole point is that in the semi's UConn faced teams that had a week to create a plan and practice it (11-7) while in the finals UConn's opponents had less than 48 hours (11-0).
 
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When Uconn lost to Stanford in Uconn's second game of the year back a few years ago,Stanford had 6 months to prepare and this was their game of the entire season.By mid-year Uconn would have beaten them by 25-30 points on their court.In the semis the Uconn opponent views the game as their game of the year because they are playing Uconn and Uconn views the finals as their game of the year and it's "Katie bar the door" for their opponents.This doesn't mean Uconn doesn't try just as hard to win but sometimes their eventual performance isn't up to their very best.I'm sure the effort was there when Tulane came within 1 point of defeating Uconn during the season.If that game was for the national championship Uconn would have won by 60 points even on their court.
 

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Match ups and being the better team are the the biggest factor which is a major credit to Geno for always having his players ready and putting themselves in a position as the heavy favorite. If you break down the 11 title games, you have:

1995 and 2003...Very evenly matched against Tennessee. Connecticut was technically the favorite, but a lot of people thought Tennessee might take the title in both years.

2004-Huskies were a 2 seed but were everyone's pick once the Final Four came around. Tennessee was a 1 seed, but they were hobbled with injuries and barely made it to the finals, nearly losing the last 3 tournament games. Connecticut was peaking with a massive win at home over Penn State and a solid win over Minnesota.

2000, 2002, 2010, 2014, 2015-Huskies were the heavy favorites in these despite playing the #2 team in the country. In 2000, I remember Anne Meyers stating that out of 37 writers predicting the game, 33 predicted UCONN would win. 2002, 2010, 2014 and 2015 all faced UCONN against great teams, but similar to 2000, most predicted that UCONN would win a relatively comfortable game.


2009, 2013, 2016-Huskies were a massive favorite against an overwhelmed Cinderella squad and crushed them en route to a title.

If UCONN were to make it through the semifinals in the 7 years they lost, they'd probably be 14-4 or 15-3:
1991..if they played Tennessee they would've been the underdog here, and I think Tennessee wins
1996...they'd be the favorite to beat Georgia. I think UCONN would've won that game.
2001...UCONN would have been favored, but honestly I think it would've been a total toss up against that Purdue squad.
2008...UCONN was the #1 overall seed, but Tennessee wins this one
2011...UCONN beats A&M
2012...Baylor would've been the heavy favorite and likely wins
2017...UCONN would've been the heavy favorite and I think beats SC
Nice post.
 

wallman

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Match ups and being the better team are the the biggest factor which is a major credit to Geno for always having his players ready and putting themselves in a position as the heavy favorite. If you break down the 11 title games, you have:

1995 and 2003...Very evenly matched against Tennessee. Connecticut was technically the favorite, but a lot of people thought Tennessee might take the title in both years.

2004-Huskies were a 2 seed but were everyone's pick once the Final Four came around. Tennessee was a 1 seed, but they were hobbled with injuries and barely made it to the finals, nearly losing the last 3 tournament games. Connecticut was peaking with a massive win at home over Penn State and a solid win over Minnesota.

2000, 2002, 2010, 2014, 2015-Huskies were the heavy favorites in these despite playing the #2 team in the country. In 2000, I remember Anne Meyers stating that out of 37 writers predicting the game, 33 predicted UCONN would win. 2002, 2010, 2014 and 2015 all faced UCONN against great teams, but similar to 2000, most predicted that UCONN would win a relatively comfortable game.


2009, 2013, 2016-Huskies were a massive favorite against an overwhelmed Cinderella squad and crushed them en route to a title.

If UCONN were to make it through the semifinals in the 7 years they lost, they'd probably be 14-4 or 15-3:
1991..if they played Tennessee they would've been the underdog here, and I think Tennessee wins
1996...they'd be the favorite to beat Georgia. I think UCONN would've won that game.
2001...UCONN would have been favored, but honestly I think it would've been a total toss up against that Purdue squad.
2008...UCONN was the #1 overall seed, but Tennessee wins this one
2011...UCONN beats A&M
2012...Baylor would've been the heavy favorite and likely wins
2017...UCONN would've been the heavy favorite and I think beats SC

Vic has to be given credit for his defensive plan, some of the players were able to adjust but not all of them. With such a short bench, that makes it difficult when you have that many mental errors and it still only took 1 amazing shot to be you.
 
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Match ups and being the better team are the the biggest factor which is a major credit to Geno for always having his players ready and putting themselves in a position as the heavy favorite. If you break down the 11 title games, you have:

1995 and 2003...Very evenly matched against Tennessee. Connecticut was technically the favorite, but a lot of people thought Tennessee might take the title in both years.

2004-Huskies were a 2 seed but were everyone's pick once the Final Four came around. Tennessee was a 1 seed, but they were hobbled with injuries and barely made it to the finals, nearly losing the last 3 tournament games. Connecticut was peaking with a massive win at home over Penn State and a solid win over Minnesota.

2000, 2002, 2010, 2014, 2015-Huskies were the heavy favorites in these despite playing the #2 team in the country. In 2000, I remember Anne Meyers stating that out of 37 writers predicting the game, 33 predicted UCONN would win. 2002, 2010, 2014 and 2015 all faced UCONN against great teams, but similar to 2000, most predicted that UCONN would win a relatively comfortable game.


2009, 2013, 2016-Huskies were a massive favorite against an overwhelmed Cinderella squad and crushed them en route to a title.

If UCONN were to make it through the semifinals in the 7 years they lost, they'd probably be 14-4 or 15-3:
1991..if they played Tennessee they would've been the underdog here, and I think Tennessee wins
1996...they'd be the favorite to beat Georgia. I think UCONN would've won that game.
2001...UCONN would have been favored, but honestly I think it would've been a total toss up against that Purdue squad.
2008...UCONN was the #1 overall seed, but Tennessee wins this one
2011...UCONN beats A&M
2012...Baylor would've been the heavy favorite and likely wins
2017...UCONN would've been the heavy favorite and I think beats SC
2001 you feel they would have probably lost to Purdue? Didn't Notre Dame beat Purdue to win the title? Are you suggesting that there would have been a matchup problem that would have made Purdue a probable winner?
 

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2001 you feel they would have probably lost to Purdue? Didn't Notre Dame beat Purdue to win the title? Are you suggesting that there would have been a matchup problem that would have made Purdue a probable winner?

Purdue gave Notre Dame a much tougher game than Connecticut did and they peaked at the right time. They had a very underrated roster loaded with senior and championship experience. Katie Douglas, Camille Cooper and Kelly Komara as the leaders, and really strong freshmen in Shereka Wright and Shalicia Hurns, both of whom had fantastic showings in the championship. They had Notre Dame on the ropes until the very end, and I think they would've made it a tight game against the Huskies that could've gone either way.
 

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