Why the Big East is not doomed yet this year

[shizzle787]

The league has been down this year, but I would still bet on at least 4 bids based on what I will posit below.

The league has 31 remaining non-conference contests and I will break them into three categories:

P4 games remaining (16)

Xavier vs. Cincinnati (12/5)
Marquette @ Wisconsin (12/6)
Seton Hall @ Kansas State (12/6)
St. John's vs. Ole Miss (12/6)
Georgetown @ North Carolina (12/7)
Creighton @ Nebraska (12/7)
Villanova @ Michigan (12/9)
UConn vs. Florida (MSG) (12/9)
UConn vs. Texas (12/12)
Marquette @ Purdue (12/13)
Creighton vs. Kansas State (12/13)
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh (12/13)
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers (12/13)
Villanova @ Wisconsin (12/19)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (Atlanta) (12/20)
Butler vs. Northwestern (12/20)


Other notable mid-major games remaining (5)

Providence vs. Rhode Island (12/6)
Butler vs. Boise State (12/6)
Villanova vs. Penn (12/6)
Xavier vs. Missouri State (12/12)
DePaul @ Wichita State (12/13)

Cupcake games (10)

UConn vs. East Texas A&M (12/5)
DePaul vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (12/6)
Providence vs. Brown (12/9)
DePaul vs. Morgan State (12/9)
St. John's vs. Iona (12/13)
Georgetown vs. Saint Peter's (12/13)
Butler vs. NJIT (12/22)
Georgetown vs. Coppin State (12/22)
Creighton vs. Utah Tech (12/22)
St. John's vs. Harvard (12/23)

 

[shizzle787]

I definitely think there is still a slim possibility to get 5 bids, and I think 4 bids is 55/45 right now.

The league obviously needs to go 10-0 in the cupcake games.

With regards to the other notables, the game I am most concerned about is DePaul @ Wichita State. We need to go at least 4-1 in those games and hopefully DePaul can get the fifth win.

With regards to the P4 games, we are currently sitting at 13-21. Last year we got five teams in with an 18-23 record against the P4. We play 50 P4 games this year instead of 41 but I think a similar winning percentage will give us a chance at 5 bids.

If the league finishes 23-27 against the P4 and wins at least 14 of the other 15 games, there is almost no mathematical way the league finishes worse than 4th overall and gets less than four bids. Five would be 50/50 at that point.

Diving into the P4 games, this means the league needs to go 10-6 the rest of the way.

There are three games I don't see the league winning (I would put at under 25% odds):

Georgetown @ North Carolina
Villanova @ Michigan
Marquette @ Purdue

That leaves thirteen games to get ten wins from.

Games the league should win (I would put at over 65% odds):

St. John's vs. Ole Miss
UConn vs. Texas
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh

That leaves us with ten tossup games where we need to go 7-3 (I have my predictions next to each matchup):

Xavier vs. Cincinnati (L)
Marquette @ Wisconsin (L)
Seton Hall @ Kansas State (W)
Creighton @ Nebraska (L)
UConn vs. Florida (W)
Creighton vs. Kansas State (W)
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers (W)
Villanova @ Wisconsin (L)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (L)
Butler vs. Northwestern (W)

I have us going 5-5. Xavier winning tomorrow would be a nice bellwether in the right direction.

All in all, I think if we finish 21-29 against the P4 and go 14-1 against the non-P4, we will get 4 bids.

If we are able to get to 23-27, we are 50/50 for 5 bids.

If by some miracle we go at least 12-4 (25-25 overall) AND win all other 15 games, the league will get 5 bids and actually have a chance at 6.

 

[TheHorde]

DOOMED!

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There may be 1 or 2 at large bids for all the leagues outside the top 5. There will be enough bids for any deserving major conference team, and for several undeserving ones too.

 

[GotNets?]

I definitely think there is still a slim possibility to get 5 bids, and I think 4 bids is 55/45 right now.

The league obviously needs to go 10-0 in the cupcake games.

With regards to the other notables, the game I am most concerned about is DePaul @ Wichita State. We need to go at least 4-1 in those games and hopefully DePaul can get the fifth win.

With regards to the P4 games, we are currently sitting at 13-21. Last year we got five teams in with an 18-23 record against the P4. We play 50 P4 games this year instead of 41 but I think a similar winning percentage will give us a chance at 5 bids.

If the league finishes 23-27 against the P4 and wins at least 14 of the other 15 games, there is almost no mathematical way the league finishes worse than 4th overall and gets less than four bids. Five would be 50/50 at that point.

Diving into the P4 games, this means the league needs to go 10-6 the rest of the way.

There are three games I don't see the league winning (I would put at under 25% odds):

Georgetown @ North Carolina
Villanova @ Michigan
Marquette @ Purdue

That leaves thirteen games to get ten wins from.

Games the league should win (I would put at over 65% odds):

St. John's vs. Ole Miss
UConn vs. Texas
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh

That leaves us with ten tossup games where we need to go 7-3 (I have my predictions next to each matchup):

Xavier vs. Cincinnati (L)
Marquette @ Wisconsin (L)
Seton Hall @ Kansas State (W)
Creighton @ Nebraska (L)
UConn vs. Florida (W)
Creighton vs. Kansas State (W)
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers (W)
Villanova @ Wisconsin (L)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (L)
Butler vs. Northwestern (W)

I have us going 5-5. Xavier winning tomorrow would be a nice bellwether in the right direction.

All in all, I think if we finish 21-29 against the P4 and go 14-1 against the non-P4, we will get 4 bids.

If we are able to get to 23-27, we are 50/50 for 5 bids.

If by some miracle we go at least 12-4 (25-25 overall) AND win all other 15 games, the league will get 5 bids and actually have a chance at 6.

Huge props for doing all this analysis. Great to see X get that first win.

 

[RuffRuff]

There may be 1 or 2 at large bids for all the leagues outside the top 5. There will be enough bids for any deserving major conference team, and for several undeserving ones too.

This is true, but the BE teams better get moving. Who may absorb a lot of those spots this year is the ACC. Even if you look at a team like St Marys this year, zero good OOC wins. Can we think many quality wins for mid majors?

 

[Travelman6]

UConn is marked on 10 other teams calenders as marquee possible wins and likely two of only a few shots they'd have to boost their resume and chances of getting in. Hurley has some tough games ahead, everyone will be up for playing UConn (as if it even needs to be stated).

 

[willie99]

We have to drag a couple of bubble teams into the dance.

After all, every team in the league will be better the morning after they play us
than they were the day before and every other league team will be better because they played the team we just beat

No problem

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This is true, but the BE teams better get moving. Who may absorb a lot of those spots this year is the ACC. Even if you look at a team like St Marys this year, zero good OOC wins. Can we think many quality wins for mid majors?

The SEC is not getting 14 bids again either.

 

[UCLJ0211]

Nice win for Xavier last night

 

[REB1094]

Nice win for Xavier last night

not really, that would have been a bad loss. As of now it's a Q3 win and I imagine Cincinnati will only drop in rankings as they go through B12 play

 

[RuffRuff]

The SEC is not getting 14 bids again either.

No, but the ACC is much stronger. They could easily absorb those 4-5 the SEC had in excess. They only had a few last year.

If there are 37 at large bids, minus the 5 AL conference winners, it’s generally the top 42 or so of the NET that would get in.

We know the Zag and or StM will take one. A lot to still happen obviously, but as always a lot will depend on whether any of these mid majors that could qualify for an at large also win their tourney. Utah St, Yale, etc.

If you look right now, ACC has about 6-7 in. BE maybe 3-4.

 

[Scot-e]

I definitely think there is still a slim possibility to get 5 bids, and I think 4 bids is 55/45 right now.

The league obviously needs to go 10-0 in the cupcake games.

With regards to the other notables, the game I am most concerned about is DePaul @ Wichita State. We need to go at least 4-1 in those games and hopefully DePaul can get the fifth win.

With regards to the P4 games, we are currently sitting at 13-21. Last year we got five teams in with an 18-23 record against the P4. We play 50 P4 games this year instead of 41 but I think a similar winning percentage will give us a chance at 5 bids.

If the league finishes 23-27 against the P4 and wins at least 14 of the other 15 games, there is almost no mathematical way the league finishes worse than 4th overall and gets less than four bids. Five would be 50/50 at that point.

Diving into the P4 games, this means the league needs to go 10-6 the rest of the way.

There are three games I don't see the league winning (I would put at under 25% odds):

Georgetown @ North Carolina
Villanova @ Michigan
Marquette @ Purdue

That leaves thirteen games to get ten wins from.

Games the league should win (I would put at over 65% odds):

St. John's vs. Ole Miss
UConn vs. Texas
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh

That leaves us with ten tossup games where we need to go 7-3 (I have my predictions next to each matchup):

Xavier vs. Cincinnati (L)
Marquette @ Wisconsin (L)
Seton Hall @ Kansas State (W)
Creighton @ Nebraska (L)
UConn vs. Florida (W)
Creighton vs. Kansas State (W)
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers (W)
Villanova @ Wisconsin (L)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (L)
Butler vs. Northwestern (W)

I have us going 5-5. Xavier winning tomorrow would be a nice bellwether in the right direction.

All in all, I think if we finish 21-29 against the P4 and go 14-1 against the non-P4, we will get 4 bids.

If we are able to get to 23-27, we are 50/50 for 5 bids.

If by some miracle we go at least 12-4 (25-25 overall) AND win all other 15 games, the league will get 5 bids and actually have a chance at 6.

Thanks for the breakdown. Nice job! Kentucky is a game I could see StJohns winning at this point. Slick Rick is a better coach and both teams are basically well paid rentals.

 

[NJHusky]

Thanks for the breakdown. Nice job! Kentucky is a game I could see StJohns winning at this point. Slick Rick is a better coach and both teams are basically well paid rentals.

If St. John’s doesn’t win that will be bad loss they way Kentucky is playing

 

[UCann]

UConn is marked on 10 other teams calenders as marquee possible wins and likely two of only a few shots they'd have to boost their resume and chances of getting in. Hurley has some tough games ahead, everyone will be up for playing UConn (as if it even needs to be stated).

Very good point. We will have a target on our backs all season. Not that it’s a surprise or something new. But a reminder that the BE schedule will not be the cakewalk most expect.

 

[JwittersPAC]

I definitely think there is still a slim possibility to get 5 bids, and I think 4 bids is 55/45 right now.

The league obviously needs to go 10-0 in the cupcake games.

With regards to the other notables, the game I am most concerned about is DePaul @ Wichita State. We need to go at least 4-1 in those games and hopefully DePaul can get the fifth win.

With regards to the P4 games, we are currently sitting at 13-21. Last year we got five teams in with an 18-23 record against the P4. We play 50 P4 games this year instead of 41 but I think a similar winning percentage will give us a chance at 5 bids.

If the league finishes 23-27 against the P4 and wins at least 14 of the other 15 games, there is almost no mathematical way the league finishes worse than 4th overall and gets less than four bids. Five would be 50/50 at that point.

Diving into the P4 games, this means the league needs to go 10-6 the rest of the way.

There are three games I don't see the league winning (I would put at under 25% odds):

Georgetown @ North Carolina
Villanova @ Michigan
Marquette @ Purdue

That leaves thirteen games to get ten wins from.

Games the league should win (I would put at over 65% odds):

St. John's vs. Ole Miss
UConn vs. Texas
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh

That leaves us with ten tossup games where we need to go 7-3 (I have my predictions next to each matchup):

Xavier vs. Cincinnati (L)
Marquette @ Wisconsin (L)
Seton Hall @ Kansas State (W)
Creighton @ Nebraska (L)
UConn vs. Florida (W)
Creighton vs. Kansas State (W)
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers (W)
Villanova @ Wisconsin (L)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (L)
Butler vs. Northwestern (W)

I have us going 5-5. Xavier winning tomorrow would be a nice bellwether in the right direction.

All in all, I think if we finish 21-29 against the P4 and go 14-1 against the non-P4, we will get 4 bids.

If we are able to get to 23-27, we are 50/50 for 5 bids.

If by some miracle we go at least 12-4 (25-25 overall) AND win all other 15 games, the league will get 5 bids and actually have a chance at 6.

How do you see the Butler loss to Boise State?

 

[Tiamat7]

Is it true that the Boise State loss to a D2 team does not enter into the quantitative NET? In other words, it's only a qualitative data point for the selection committee to consider? Tough loss for Butler.

 

[karstenkibbe]

ACC taking care of business. Will end up 10-1 today. Meanwhile, DePaul is losing to Pine Bluff.

 

[Palatine]

Seton Hall is off to a nice start.

 

[JwittersPAC]

ACC taking care of business. Will end up 10-1 today. Meanwhile, DePaul is losing to Pine Bluff.

I thought you were kidding but just looked up the score - DePaul losing 28-37 at halftime. Can we replace DePaul with Dayton.

 

[shizzle787]

How do you see the Butler loss to Boise State?

Disappointing but Seton Hall's win today effectively cancels it out.

 

[dennismenace]

If St. John’s doesn’t win that will be bad loss they way Kentucky is playing

Maybe worth watching if Ricky wears his Col. Sanders white suit.

 

[shizzle787]

Update of what is left:

P4 games remaining (16-22 overall)- games I think we win in bold:

Georgetown @ North Carolina (12/7)
Creighton @ Nebraska (12/7)
Villanova @ Michigan (12/9)
UConn vs. Florida (MSG) (12/9)
UConn vs. Texas (12/12)
Marquette @ Purdue (12/13)
Creighton vs. Kansas State (12/13)
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh (12/13)
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers (12/13)
Villanova @ Wisconsin (12/19)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (Atlanta) (12/20)
Butler vs. Northwestern (12/20)

Need to go 7-5 to hit 23-27 mark.

Even 1-1 today will be a huge deal.


To me there is one more questionable game left:

DePaul @ Wichita State (12/13)

I expect a loss, but a win would be a huge plus.



Cupcake games remaining (we need to go 9-0):

Xavier vs. Missouri State (12/12)
Providence vs. Brown (12/9)
DePaul vs. Morgan State (12/9)
St. John's vs. Iona (12/13)
Georgetown vs. Saint Peter's (12/13)
Butler vs. NJIT (12/22)
Georgetown vs. Coppin State (12/22)
Creighton vs. Utah Tech (12/22)
St. John's vs. Harvard (12/23)

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Update of what is left:

P4 games remaining (16-22 overall)- games I think we win in bold:

Georgetown @ North Carolina (12/7)
Creighton @ Nebraska (12/7)
Villanova @ Michigan (12/9)
UConn vs. Florida (MSG) (12/9)
UConn vs. Texas (12/12)
Marquette @ Purdue (12/13)
Creighton vs. Kansas State (12/13)
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh (12/13)
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers (12/13)
Villanova @ Wisconsin (12/19)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (Atlanta) (12/20)
Butler vs. Northwestern (12/20)

St. John’s should beat Kentucky if they’re at all for real. Right now I’d say that’s a coin flip outcome.

 

[Palatine]

Providence vs. Brown! That baby is for all the marbles. Should be a war.