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Message: [QUOTE="NycUcWbbFan, post: 5088893, member: 13453"] [URL='https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/boxscore/_/gameId/401259598']UConn 63-59 South Carolina (Feb 8, 2021):[/URL] [LIST] [*]Total Rebounds: [B]39 vs 52[/B] [*]FGA: 73 vs 68 [*][B]TrueFGA: 76 vs 75[/B] (calculation below); [*]Nika replaced Aubrey in the starting lineup after loss to AK; a pertinent context is described [URL='https://the-boneyard.com/threads/pg-for-this-season-paige-azzi-kk-kaitlyn-morgan.202465/post-5086692']here[/URL]; [/LIST] Basketball is a game of possessions and game play, at times punctuated by individual game brilliance (Paige: 31 points in game above): [LIST] [*]PTS = 2 x True2PT% x True2FGA + 3 x True3PT% x True3FGA [*]True values are box score values adjusted for the missing missed FGA with 2/3 awarded FTs; [*]UConn’s True2FGA = 58 + 3 = 61; UConn had 3 missed 2FGA attempts and made 2 out of 6 FTs; UConn’s TrueFGA = 73 + 3 = 76; [*]SC’s True2FGA = 59 + 7 = 66; SC had 7 missed 2FGA attempts and made 8 of 14 FTs; SC’s TrueFGA = 68 + 7 =75. [/LIST] So, while SC enjoyed a 13 rebound differential, UConn’s defense #1 (other than rebounding) blunted the potential FGA differential, with TrueFGA for UConn = 76 vs SC’s 75; [LIST] [*]UConn had 11 steals, forced 21 turnovers and had 8 blocks vs SC’s 3 steals, forced turnovers of 17 and 4 blocks; [*]UConn’s true shooting percentages #2 were high enough to beat SC’s true shooting percentages #3 which were low enough because of UConn’s defense; [*]UConn also had 8 assists to SC’s 1 which is a nod to the different styles of play and also indicative of the relative strength of the defenses; [*][B]in Geno speak[/B], UConn won because the team was getting good shots, was scoring at a rate (made shots and free throws) better than South Carolina, and the defense was better than South Carolina — enough to blunt their rebounding edge. [/LIST] #1 Defense is stealing possessions and/or impeding opponent’s efficiency. It includes turnovers, steals, an opponent’s discombobulated offense, forcing the opponent into tough shots, shot-clock violations, offensive fouls/charges, blocks and rebounds. #2 UConn’s True Shooting Efficiency: [LIST] [*][B]True2PT%[/B] = 0.5 x (63 - 3x2) / (58 + 3) = [B]0.467[/B] [*]True3PT% = 2 / 15 = 0.133 [/LIST] #3 South Carolina’s True Shooting Efficiency: [LIST] [*][B]True2PT%[/B] = 0.5 x (59 - 3x1) / (59 + 7) = [B]0.424[/B] [*]True3PT% = 1 / 9 = 0.111 [/LIST] === Another Example: [URL='https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/boxscore/_/gameId/401254964']UConn 67-61 Tennessee (Jan 21, 2021)[/URL] [LIST] [*]Rebounding: 38 vs 42; [*]True FGA: (61+9) vs (65+5) — Even; [*]UConn True Shooting: [B]True2PT%[/B] = 0.5 x (67 - 7x3) / (36 + 9) = [B]0.511[/B]; True3PT% = 7/25 = 0.280; [*]TN True Shooting: [B]True2PT%[/B] = 0.5 x (61 - 3x7) / (45 + 5) = [B]0.400[/B]; True3PT% = 7/20 = 0.350; [*]UConn’s defensive stats (other than rebounds) are slightly better than TN; [/LIST] The base analytical approach above can be applied to any game. [B]Now re: last yea[/B]r. [URL='https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/boxscore/_/gameId/401584565']UConn 65-83 South Carolina (Feb 11, 2024)[/URL] [LIST] [*]Rebounding: [B]37 vs 46[/B] [*]True FGA: (71+5) vs (71+6) [B]About even[/B]; [*]UConn True Shooting: [B]True2PT%[/B] = 0.5 x (65 - 3x7) / (48 + 5) = [B]0.415[/B]; True3PT% = 7/23 = 0.304; [*]SC True Shooting: [B]True2PT%[/B] = 0.5 x (83 - 3x7) / (52 + 6) = [B]0.534[/B]; True3PT% = 7/20 = 0.350; [*]SC shot much more efficiently and the defense (other than rebounding) was about the same; [*]The extra possessions fed SC’s efficient offense. [/LIST] Without going through all the examples last year: [LIST] [*]Last year’s offense and defense were not at the usual levels that would be enough to overcome rebounding discrepancies; [*]We know the culprits: 6-7 players, no running game, no stability for long stretches, no rest, etc. [/LIST] Having (Jana, Sarah, Ice, Ayanna) vs just Aaliyah and 1/2 of Ice, is sure better. No one is disagreeing with that. My point was a rebounding edge can be overcome. But only if the offense and defense (other than rebounding) are sufficiently better than the opponent’s. [I]Most years, that is the case for UConn. Last year, is as you know, last year.[/I] [/QUOTE]

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