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Message: [QUOTE="Bone Dog, post: 5058633, member: 12088"] I read most of those matchups differently. 5>3 Uconn if you ask me. But that 3 could be enough to win it. Betts Barker and Dugalic will be the winning matchups, and they could be enough to win it for them depending on how long they can stay on the floor. Jacquez, Jones, Rice and Ledger-Walker are all losing matchups if Azzi plays, and these won't be one-v-one matchups either. And I suspect Ice will be too much for Gardner now that she has a year under her belt. Jacquez is good, but she will not be able to run with Paige any better than Sellars did last season. And when Rice switches onto her, it will be like being taken to school. Same with Azzi, and don't forget Kaitlyn, who almost beat them single-handedly last season, and that was when they had Osborne. Now maybe Azzi won't be back for this game, but if she is, look out. Containing her and Paige -- not happening. And if they light it up, the rest of the team will be unleashed. Last season Paige scored 31 on a poor shooting night for her (though she hit 5-11 3s) with only Aaliyah and Ice against Betts Dugalic Sonntag, and Ice had yet to find her feet in Geno's system. Most of Paige's scoring was spent in a desperate comeback effort. Same goes for KK and Ash. This meant Paige had no openings in the paint. Essentially, Aaliyah was way outmuscled. Aubrey did a little better because of the matchup problem she poses for any team. This was essentially a frontline win. Rice and Osborne scored 42 between them, but I thought that was largely due to what the frontline advantage did to Geno's defense. You can challenge shooters much more aggressively if you know you have a pair of rim-protectors behind you. The main UCLA advantage is in the front court and I don't see Jana and Sarah being able to contain Betts & Co in the long run, especially with Barker as a wildcard. If Aubrey were back, that might make a difference. But as it is, Geno's plan is likely to be to see if his backcourt can take enough of the pressure off his front court to allow Jana to hold her own at least for a little while. The puzzle for Close is whether she can run a big lineup for long stretches or if that will be too slow. This is where Barker is important, the only quick big she has. Otherwise, I suspect she won't be able to keep Betts on the floor for long alongside Gardner or Dugalic. Jana and Ice or Sarah against Gardner and Dugalic -- I like those odds. If Close can't count on Barker for major minutes, can she play a lineup like Betts Rice Jones Jacquez and Ledger-Walker against Paige Azzi Kaitlyn Sarah and Jana? I doubt it. Paige Kaitlyn and Azzi (or Sarah) would light them up. And with subs like KK and Ash able to sub win, this will be a difficult lineup to tire out. Geno doesn't need his freshmen to work wonders for him, but a couple of them just might. And subbing Dugalic or Gardner for Jacquez just makes them too slow. On the other hand, if Barker and Betts play well together, I think UCLA has a significant advantage. That will take the pressure of Rice and Jones to make the backcourt work. [/QUOTE]

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