Which team has a better chance of winning a NC

[purrr]

I was speaking with a friend and he thinks UCONN in the next 2 years have a solid shot at winning a National Championship. We were debating and making certain assumptions. We both felt that Drummond and Lamb are gone next year. He thinks Oriakhi is gone but I think that he will not see the kind of consistent minutes he needs because he and Drummond are basically the same type of players but Drummond is bigger and is leaving after this year.

We looked at both possible rosters and thought that the rotation in 2011 vs 2012 would look like this:

2011: 2012
Napier Napier
Boatright Boatright
Lamb Calhoun
Smith Giffey
Daniels Smith
Olander Daniels
Oriakhi Olander
Drummond Oriakhi

We both felt like Giffey would play limited minutes this year and Bradley would be in the same boat next year.
Which team do you think would have the best possibility of winning a NC and why? One thing I am not sure of is if there are any scholarships open for next year.

 

[Ricky1Moore]

We'll win them both

 

[Ts5034]

Very interesting thread. Obviously its hard to look that far ahead at rosters this early because you never know how things will turn out. Even though Uconn looks to be solid for next year, you have to say this years team has the better shot. I say that because i think Lamb and Drummond will be the x factors for the stretch run this season. We know what Lamb is and AD is just getting better every game.

 

[UCHuskies08]

I think this year, assuming the appropriate growth curve. Lamb is already the type of player who can take over an NCAA tourney game, we have no idea what Calhoun can do, and I wouldn't expect it from him as a freshman. Drummond is obviously a huge factor in that as well, our frontline is surely better & deeper this year. Of course, next year will feature Napier and Boatright with another year of experience, along with Daniels, Smith, and Giffey....

 

[kobebeanbryant]

definitely this year.

however, if drummond comes back it gets interesting. if daniels is able to progress like lamb did and fill his spot. we then have almost the same team, but with everyone a year older (which would be huge for drummond and boatright).

the backcourt rotation is also interesting. do we play bazz and boat together, or does daniels slide down to the 2? or possibly calhoun?

 

[RayRay19]

we are DOOMED! everyones leaving to the nba...we are going to be left with wolf at the point! DOOMED!!!!

 

[UConn3432]

Ohio State looked pretty good last night.

 

[DogMania]

I'll be shocked if they don't bring in one or two more big time players. My pipe dream is AD returns and Noel reclassifies and comes to UConn. If the line-up turned out as you listed, I like our chances this season over next. Omar doesn't replace both Lamb & Drummond. But if they add one of the better bigs that are still available, then the overall improvement with the returning players plus the addition of Omar and a ready to contribute big would be just as formidable.

Just as I wasn't last season, I'm not very impressed with the field this year. I think UConn could cut the nets down again if the returning players that have shown significant improvement continue to improve (Lamb, Bazz & Olander), the ones who are struggling get back to where they were last March and go beyond (Alex, Roscoe & Giffey) and the newbies (Drummond, Daniels, Boatright & Bradley) mature by the end of February.

Hard to project what the field will look like in 2012/13, but UConn should still have a lot of talent and a little more experience.

 

[hooskies]

Ohio State looked pretty good last night.

yea, youre right...forget the rest of the season, give them the title

 

[UConn3432]

yea, youre right...forget the rest of the season, give them the title

I'm just saying UConn has a ways to go before they can be included in the national title picture. They were contenders on paper before they started the season, but will need to show mental, offensive and defensive improvement to get back there come March/April. Ohio State put on a clinic against a Duke team that won a pretty tough Maui. When UConn impresses me like they did I'll join in the "this year or next year" talk.

 

[EricLA]

Very interesting thread. Obviously its hard to look that far ahead at rosters this early because you never know how things will turn out. Even though Uconn looks to be solid for next year, you have to say this years team has the better shot. I say that because i think Lamb and Drummond will be the x factors for the stretch run this season. We know what Lamb is and AD is just getting better every game.

totally agree with that. losing Lamb and Drummond may put us in the 10-15 range next year, maybe even lower. i can't see Oriakhi leaving, but who knows?

 

[Gurleyman]

We're in the national title picture already, along with maybe 8-9 other teams. The basketball season is so long that you can look phenomenal in late February - never mind November - and completely lose your mojo by the second weekend in March. Looking good now is nice, but ultimately doesn't have much bearing. Yes, last year was an example of proving yourself early and winning it all, but on the flip side, everyone had us in the national title picture in 2003-04 and we got drilled by Georgia Tech in November - didn't mean that we weren't a contender any more.

 

[UCONN4life]

UConn, Kentucky, and maybe North Carolina are the three teams that have a chance of winning it this year. I dont see anyone else winning except 1 of these 3 schools. Ohio State is good but they don't have the athletes or talent that the other three teams have. North Carolina hasn't looked good and are getting beat up physically by smaller teams. I expect A UConn and kentucky championship game withUConn winning the whole thing in a close game 67-64.

 

[wpq4elamin]

Ohio State looked pretty good last night.

yea, until you go back and watch Duke's defensive effort... WOW was it awful.... they couldn't guard anyone and gave them wide open shots on simple reversals.... we used it at practice the other day to show our Freshmen kids what NOT to do and how NOT to work...

that being said, Ohio St. IS good.... just not as good as they looked getting uncontested looks all night...

 

[wpq4elamin]

I'm just saying UConn has a ways to go before they can be included in the national title picture. They were contenders on paper before they started the season, but will need to show mental, offensive and defensive improvement to get back there come March/April. Ohio State put on a clinic against a Duke team that won a pretty tough Maui. When UConn impresses me like they did I'll join in the "this year or next year" talk.

After last season, you can't ever really think we don't have a chance to win it as long as JC is here... Can you?

 

[gibhunter]

UNC, UK and OSU lose a lot this year. UConn probably loses AD and JL. That gives us a solid 3 man rotation for 4-5 with AO (senior), RS and TO (juniors). 1-2 is solid but again thin with SN, RB and Calhoun off the bench. 3 is solid with DD and NG. The improvement from DD and RB should offset the loss of JL. I'm hoping a senior AO with junior TO should offset the difference of freshman AD.

The team will be more veteran with a veteran point guard and that experience mixed with talent should keep UConn in the top 5 next year. Couple that with what UNC, OSU and UK lose and UConn might just have a better chance to win it all next year than it does this year.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

The team will be more veteran with a veteran point guard and that experience mixed with talent should keep UConn in the top 5 next year. Couple that with what UNC, OSU and UK lose and UConn might just have a better chance to win it all next year than it does this year.

Hate to admit this, but you can pretty much pencil in Kentucky to have another absurd roster next year. We already know at a minimum that they'll have Ryan Harrow, Archie Goodwin, Alex Poythress, Willie Cauley, and Kyle Wiltjer. You already have an NCAA tournament team with those 5 alone. There's no reason not to assume that they'll sign 2-3 more big time recruits - I know a lot of us are waiting for the day when recruits stop flocking to Calipari, but I wouldn't suggest holding your breath. Then you figure there's at least a chance that 1-2 of their current players may come back like Jones and Lamb did this year. I can't imagine it would be Davis, Jones, or Lamb, but I think Teague and Kidd-Gilchrist will at least have a decision to make.

 

[Walker11]

Hate to admit this, but you can pretty much pencil in Kentucky to have another absurd roster next year. We already know at a minimum that they'll have Ryan Harrow, Archie Goodwin, Alex Poythress, Willie Cauley, and Kyle Wiltjer. You already have an NCAA tournament team with those 5 alone. There's no reason not to assume that they'll sign 2-3 more big time recruits - I know a lot of us are waiting for the day when recruits stop flocking to Calipari, but I wouldn't suggest holding your breath. Then you figure there's at least a chance that 1-2 of their current players may come back like Jones and Lamb did this year. I can't imagine it would be Davis, Jones, or Lamb, but I think Teague and Kidd-Gilchrist will at least have a decision to make.

Next year should be the worst year by far for UK if Kidd Gilchrist, Davis, Lamb, and Jones go pro. I imagine they all will, with Lamb being somewhat of a question mark. The difference between this recruiting class with Goodwin, Harrow*, Cauley, Poythress is that they are all guys ranked 10-30. I think Goodwin is RSCI 12 and he is their most highly though of recruit. Their teams in the past have have been loaded with top 5 guys who were the instant impact, one and done types and it doesn't appear Cal is doing that next year (don't know if thats by choice). There will have to be some huge surprises returnees for them to be loaded next year + they need to land one particular recruit, Shabazz Muhammad. It looks like it will be a decent for to be a UK hater.

Uconn on the other hand will probably have a better chance this year if the team does gel. By February, we will be wondering how the hell is the team going to replace a guy like Drummond. I like the idea of the previous poster, hoping that Drummond returns and Noel reclassifies. Now that would be an elite NBA defensive front line.

 

[UCONN4life]

Next year should be the worst year by far for UK if Kidd Gilchrist, Davis, Lamb, and Jones go pro. I imagine they all will, with Lamb being somewhat of a question mark. The difference between this recruiting class with Goodwin, Harrow*, Cauley, Poythress is that they are all guys ranked 10-30. I think Goodwin is RSCI 12 and he is their most highly though of recruit. Their teams in the past have have been loaded with top 5 guys who were the instant impact, one and done types and it doesn't appear Cal is doing that next year (don't know if thats by choice). There will have to be some huge surprises returnees for them to be loaded next year + they need to land one particular recruit, Shabazz Muhammad. It looks like it will be a decent for to be a UK hater.

Uconn on the other hand will probably have a better chance this year if the team does gel. By February, we will be wondering how the hell is the team going to replace a guy like Drummond. I like the idea of the previous poster, hoping that Drummond returns and Noel reclassifies. Now that would be an elite NBA defensive front line.

If we get Noel to reclassify which i think he will do and he comes to UConn then I think we will be the favorite to win it all next year. However there is some bad blood between Drummond and Noel and I don't know if Noel wants to to follow in the footsteps of Andre Drummond. Hopefully thats not the case because we'd love to have him at UConn. Lamb and Drummond are guaranteed lottery picks so no way they stay another year.

Kentucky will be good like every year but once again Calimari will fall short and lose in the tournament. He will have good recruits coming in every year so thats to be expected that they will compete for championships pretty much every year with their talent

 

[Chief00]

I think there is a better shot that AD will do another year than people think. I am not predicting he will stay but it's not out of the question. Alex's recent unhappiness won't help us with the Tilton and Boston guys. JC needs to work that out.