Which of the top 3 #1 seeds do we have the best chance of upsetting and making the Final Four | The Boneyard

Which of the top 3 #1 seeds do we have the best chance of upsetting and making the Final Four

Which #1 team do we have the best shot of upsetting in their region?

  • South Carolina @ Greenville

    Votes: 48 55.2%

  • Oregon @ Portland

    Votes: 6 6.9%

  • Baylor @ Dallas

    Votes: 33 37.9%
  • Total voters
    87
eebmg

eebmg

Fair and Balanced
Joined
Nov 28, 2016
Messages
20,030
Reaction Score
88,532
Assuming we do not get the miracle of landing in the Fort Wayne Region as an overall 4 or 5 and the top 3 remain and get the #1 seeds in their respective home courts, which team do we have the best shot of upsetting?
 
This is a great thread. Now, box scores and stats can be misleading but if I were to tell you that we outscored SC in the paint would you be surprised? It wasn't so for either Oregon or Baylor where we were at a distinct deficit. My analysis is that our defense is much better on ball than it was one week ago or several weeks ago and that we have a better chance of stopping their offense from the outside now. In addition, Liv and Anna have improved although to say that Anna can be unreliable is indisputable. The same is true for Meg but all she has to be is consistent not great. SC is also a less experienced and younger team, unlike Baylor and especially Oregon. The Regionals are all set up to be home games for the top 3 teams anyway so I don't think it makes a difference in that regard. Oregon has "the" player and Baylor has Cox and are defending. I vote for SC.
 
.-.
BBallF said:
This is a great thread. Now, box scores and stats can be misleading but if I were to tell you that we outscored SC in the paint would you be surprised? It wasn't so for either Oregon or Baylor where we were at a distinct deficit. My analysis is that our defense is much better on ball than it was one week ago or several weeks ago and that we have a better chance of stopping their offense from the outside now. In addition, Liv and Anna have improved although to say that Anna can be unreliable is indisputable. The same is true for Meg but all she has to be is consistent not great. SC is also a less experienced and younger team, unlike Baylor and especially Oregon. The Regionals are all set up to be home games for the top 3 teams anyway so I don't think it makes a difference in that regard. Oregon has "the" player and Baylor has Cox and are defending. I vote for SC.
Expand ...
I agree..SC
 
Baylor given that we lost in final five minutes. If Anna is hot and Liv, Crystal and Meg do their things we have a chance. If CW comes out of her funk and joins them we...well, have a chance against anyone. If Anna dishes and scores at her best game levels, we’re gold.
 
My first choice would probably be South Carolina purely because depending on youth in crucial games can be a coin toss. Baylor would be my next choice because they've been played tough by teams like Texas Tech and TSU. Not bad teams, but not great teams either. Plus the game came down to the last 5 minutes before UConn got blown out by them. Oregon is probably the one I wouldn't want UConn to play because they just out-UConned UConn in their matchup. It just seemed like UConn had no answer for the pick-and-roll and couldn't keep Sabally and Hebard from doing what they wanted.
 
Last edited:
.-.
Going out on a limb here but my dream scenario (barring any bracket busting upsets) is UCONN avenging those 3 losses and beating Oregon, Baylor, and SC to win the NCAA championship. Doesnt have to be in no particular order :D
 
My pick would be Baylor. They haven’t really been tested much this season, and they don’t have great depth like the other 2 schools.
 
South Carolina if you can get Boston in foul trouble. Baylor if you can make Te’a Cooper and NaLyssa neutral. Oregon at the beginning of the season was finding their groove...at this point in the season....no way
 
bballnut90 said:
SC, they're young and have Beal/Boston playing crucial positions. Baylor and Oregon have better perimeter shooters too. Oregon is the last team I'd want to face.
Expand ...

Baylor has better perimeter shooting than who?......
 
This is nice team that has tried their best. We do not power forwards, speed of guards, skilled shot makers and lastly no flow to offense. Enjoy the Best Coach in Basketball, Geno.
 
.-.
Baylor is the least deep of those 3, that’s why they struggle to put away lesser opponents often.
 
I love our girls but this team does not have the talent to beat any of the 3. They play hard and give it their best but in the end we are not top 3 in the country. May be next year.
 
Connecticut is going to have to play way better than they have to have a shot against any of the three. I would prefer to be in South Carolina's bracket, though, because I think they have a (very slightly) better chance of being upset before the Elite 8, compared to Baylor (statistically the best team in the country) or Oregon (the most talented team in the country).
 
Of the choices offered in the poll, I select Baylor, primarily on historic grounds. If Mulkey has exhibited a weakness among her many championship-caliber teams, it’s been the difficulty getting across the Regional finish line to the Final Four (where she has had remarkable success, winning the Natty 3 out of the 4 trips Baylor has made). In the last 10 years Baylor has reached the Regional Final 8 times, winning just 3 (at one point losing 4 Elite 8’s in a row). Interestingly, Baylor has never won a Dallas regional (two trips – both as 1 seeds). If we add Oklahoma City to that mix (3 trips – twice as the 1 seed) they’ve never won a “local” regional in 5 attempts.*

If UConn doesn't get the Fort Wayne bid, I’m hoping for the Dallas Regional and Baylor.

*[Edit: Mulkey's Bears were also in the Norman, OK Regional as the 4-seed in 2004, the year before Baylor's 1st Nat'l title. They lost the regional-semi to Tennessee.]
 
Last edited:
Roundball fan said:
I love our girls but this team does not have the talent to beat any of the 3. They play hard and give it their best but in the end we are not top 3 in the country. May be next year.
Expand ...
I beg to differ. Admittedly, we are clearly the underdog in all three games but that does not mean we cannot win! We just need a few things to go our way and for our best players to actually show up! If we play well and get a few rolls, I promise you, we could beat any one of them.
 
SCspur said:
Baylor has better perimeter shooting than who?......
Expand ...

South Carolina. Landrum and Cooper are shooting 42-44% from the outside so you cant cheat off of them. SC has good shooters but all are under 40% with the exception of MHH, but she has only hit 17 all year. I'd rather cheat off of their 3pt shooters than let Cooper/Landrum get clean looks.
 
.-.
The key for a win over all three is how Liv plays,
against Baylor 0 points and 6 rebounds
Against Oregon 8 points and 6 rebounds
Against SC 10 points and 9 rebounds
Average of 6 points and 7 rebounds a game
Her opponents had --Cox 16 points and 6 rebounds, Hebard 22 points and 12 rebounds and Boston 13 points and 12 rebounds, Her opponents had 17 points and 10 rebounds.
SC has a freshman center/PF who could feel the pressure and Harris might be able to be contained.
So I picked SC.
 
All three of the games have certain consistencies about them. All three winners had 74,74,70 points and we as the loser had consistencies as well. We scored 58,56,52 In the losses we had lousy 4th quarters 6 against B, 7 against O and 11 against SC. Were we tired out in the 4th? Do we need more substitutions for 2 minutes here or there? We need more offense and we can look to some poor outputs by at least 2 starters per game thru the course of all three games. Against B, KI was still the starter and played 32 minutes 0 points, Liv 23 min O points. Geno benched her in the 4th quarter if we played them again we need Liv in the game. AM takes over for KI and we can hope for more offensive output. Against O, MW had 8 and CW had 5 if they had their averages we are in the game. Against SC we al remember the 2 points in the first quarter OMG it was shocking. MW had 10 points and CW 2 points and AM 0 points. So either the other teams have shutdown defenders or we were not ready for those teams. We COULD beat any of the three on a given day but the best chance and the closet game was Baylor. That is my choice. 2nd choice is SC and I think Oregon is the best team in the country right now.
 
ochoopsfan said:
The key for a win over all three is how Liv plays,
against Baylor 0 points and 6 rebounds
Against Oregon 8 points and 6 rebounds
Against SC 10 points and 9 rebounds
Average of 6 points and 7 rebounds a game
Her opponents had --Cox 16 points and 6 rebounds, Hebard 22 points and 12 rebounds and Boston 13 points and 12 rebounds, Her opponents had 17 points and 10 rebounds.
SC has a freshman center/PF who could feel the pressure and Harris might be able to be contained.
So I picked SC.
Expand ...

As good as Dangerfield is offensively (she's the only reason the SC game didn't get out of hand), she is a liability on defense when it comes to guarding Harris. Dangerfield is not like Mo Jefferson, who had an uncanny ability to guard players bigger than herself. Just from rewatching that game it was obvious that the better matchup might actually be Dangerfield on Cooke and Williams on Harris.. but I am not sold on Williams as a defender either.

I know this is surprising to a lot of people because UConn usually always has the superior backcourt when it comes to matchups... but the Huskies don't match up well with neither of SC, Baylor or Oregon when it comes to guard play. As good as the post players performed for Oregon, Baylor and SC in those three games.. I thought the backcourt was the real separator in all three, which is so weird to say about UConn.
 
jabstep said:
All three of the games have certain consistencies about them. All three winners had 74,74,70 points and we as the loser had consistencies as well. We scored 58,56,52 In the losses we had lousy 4th quarters 6 against B, 7 against O and 11 against SC. Were we tired out in the 4th? Do we need more substitutions for 2 minutes here or there? We need more offense and we can look to some poor outputs by at least 2 starters per game thru the course of all three games. Against B, KI was still the starter and played 32 minutes 0 points, Liv 23 min O points. Geno benched her in the 4th quarter if we played them again we need Liv in the game. AM takes over for KI and we can hope for more offensive output. Against O, MW had 8 and CW had 5 if they had their averages we are in the game. Against SC we al remember the 2 points in the first quarter OMG it was shocking. MW had 10 points and CW 2 points and AM 0 points. So either the other teams have shutdown defenders or we were not ready for those teams. We COULD beat any of the three on a given day but the best chance and the closet game was Baylor. That is my choice. 2nd choice is SC and I think Oregon is the best team in the country right now.
Expand ...

I think the biggest thing for the Huskies is they just need to hit shots. Dangerfield is the only one who consistently has been able to score against good teams, and it's usually long bombs or jumpers off the bounce. Without those, the games would've been even uglier.

Walker is going to be hounded and has to take and make tough shots. She hasn't been able to do that against good teams so far but I'd imagine this is something Geno and Co are working on since she's their best scorer.

ONO needs to hit face up jumpers. If she looks in rhythm, they usually go in. If it's a little awkward and opponents seemingly dare her to shoot, she's not hitting them. Her knocking down a couple of face up jumpers early would be huge since it forces someone like Cox/Boston to guard her further out and creates opportunities for backdoors and open lanes to the rim. I don't see her getting baskets on the block against Cox/Boston. I think she can out muscle Hebard though, but on the flip side Ruthy is the most difficult to defend.

Williams....I have no idea what's up with her. The only positive I can see is that she seems to be following a very similar path to her freshman season. Start out most of the year playing well, then just disappeared for a long time before playing her best ball to finish the season. If she catches fire, UCONN is a lot more formidable, but there aren't any signs that she's going to do that.

Lastly, if it's Irwin or Makurat out there, they need to stick an open 3 or two and move off the ball to get shots. I think if UCONN is going to compete with the big 3 in a regional game, the key will be making shots early and get in a rhythm. If they get themselves into a hole it's going to be very difficult to come out of.
 
.-.
You must log in or register to reply here.

Forum statistics

Threads
168,011
Messages
4,549,270
Members
10,431
Latest member
TeganK


Top Bottom