What would Geno's NC game record be had UConn won all national semis?

[alexrgct]

This is a purely hypothetical question, but I think the subject allows us, perhaps, to gain insight into why Geno is 10-0 in NC games from 1995-2015. My question is what his record would be had UConn won the six national semifinals games it lost and had more opportunities to win (or lose) more NCs. Is Geno 10-0 for reasons that would have applied across more opportunities he would've had, or rather are there, in fact, qualities for how Geno prepares his teams for the NC games that would not apply at all?

Here are the years, the would-be tournament finals opponent, and some color commentary for me.

1991 would-be opponent: Tennessee. This is a fascinating one. The LVs and Huskies narrowly escaped the beginning of the rivalry significantly prior to 1995. UConn perhaps was a little over its head to even have made the Final Four, but they didn't lose to Virginia by much. Meanwhile, the game between Virginia and Tennessee was decidedly under razor-thin circumstances. I don't think Tennessee definitely wins, but it would've been a tall order for UConn to win this.

1996 would-be opponent: Georgia. I think UConn would have had a decided edge here as a #1 seed going against an at-large entrant making a nice run to the NC game. Tennessee beat Georgia soundly after edging UConn in OT.

2001 would-be opponent: Purdue. I don't even feel like discussing that at length. ND was the only team left that stood in Uconn's way, even with the injuries to Shea and Svet. I think UConn wins this.

2008 would-be opponent: Tennesseee. Maya versus Candace? Yes please. Who wins? I dunno. Maybe Tina does something she didn't start doing before the following year?

2011 would-be opponent: Texas A&M. And the Aggies are soundly defeated by the Huskies, if you ask me...

2012 would-be opponent: Baylor. Baylor edged UConn by five or six points in Waco. Would a neutral court have been a swing in UConn's favor? Baylor handled a ND squad that had been neck and neck with UConn all season, so I'm skeptical UConn gets it done on a second try.

Thoughts/votes in the poll?

 

[Oldbones]

UConn beats Georgia 1996, Purdue 2001, Aggies 2011.
UConn loses to 1991 Tennessee, 2008 Tennessee, 2012 Baylor.

UConn also wins in 1997 if It gets by Tennessee in the Regional.

 

[UcMiami]

Fun poll - I would agree with your assessment -
'91 - just not ready yet - Geno felt they should have beaten VA, but the hoopla of the FF was too much and they lost focus.
'96 - Yes - good experienced team lost to a soon to be hated rival.
'01 - Yes - with ease - semi was the championship game
'08 - Nope - neither Tina nor Maya were ready yet.
'11 - Yes - with ease - semi was the championship game
'12 - Nope - would have been a good game but Baylor was on a mission.

Uconn's rival in recent semi final losses struggled in the finals because they put so much into the semi game. ND should have won in 2011 and Stanford and ND should have competed better in 2008 and 2012, though even with their A games in those contests I doubt they prevail.

 

[UcMiami]

It would be interesting to compile the same list for TN - Pat likely would have at least 10 titles if Uconn lost in the round before they met TN.

 

[CocoHusky]

'12 - Nope - would have been a good game but Baylor was on a mission.

I agree but wouldn't that also mean 1 less NC for UCONN-'13? '13 Baylor was just as strong as '12 Baylor minus 1 Mauling and hot 3PT shooting by Louisville.

 

[UcMiami]

I agree but wouldn't that also mean 1 less NC for UCONN-'13? '13 Baylor was just as strong as '12 Baylor minus 1 Mauling and hot 3PT shooting by Louisville.

Quite possibly - Baylor had one bad day before the FF in 2013. But the question was not about 'favorite' teams not making it to Uconn. There have been a few questionable Championship opponents for Uconn but 2013 is probably the one that had they made it another team would have been favored. Louisville's other trip to the final no one was beating uconn that year.

 

[meyers7]

Well seeing as how Geno doesn't lose NC's, he'd have won them all.

 

[UConnCat]

Maybe it's a good thing UConn lost those semi-final games. Otherwise, we wouldn't have this:

 

[mtsuraider06]

It would be interesting to compile the same list for TN - Pat likely would have at least 10 titles if Uconn lost in the round before they met TN.

Games where TN lost in semifinals:

1982: La Tech easily beat Tennessee in Pat's first NCAA Final Four, before easily beating Cheyney State.
1986: Tennessee barely made if out of Regional, having to beat #1 seed Georgia by three and #2 LSU by two before being slaughtered by USC. Texas beat USC to finish undefeated.
1988: Lost to La Tech, who went on to beat Auburn by two. Likely would've beat Auburn had we made it to championship game. Did beat Auburn in 1989 NC game.
2002: Had we beaten UConn, I think we would have likely beaten Oklahoma.
2005: Gave up a 16 point lead to Michigan State. This game still hurts, because we were the best team at the Final Four that season, and would've been favored to beat Baylor.

Pat would've likely had at least three more NC.

 

[Nuyoika]

Maybe it's a good thing UConn lost those semi-final games. Otherwise, we wouldn't have this:

Finally, someone who understands me!

 

[ASweet3781]

1991: I think we probably lose to Tennessee. They would have hurt us on the boards and gotten Kerry in foul trouble. 1991 was cinderella and the clock usually strikes midnight before winning the trophy.

1996: This is an interesting one. Georgia beat us pretty good at Gampel this year. Their guard (Roundtree?) lit us up. But I think we'd be out for revenge and Geno>>>Landers when it comes to winning. And the UConn-Tennessee game in the semis was one of the best games ever played. If we won it we'd be at a high. So we would have beaten Georgia.

2001: We beat Purdue but it'd be a good game.

2008: Tennessee had Parker, Anosike, Hornbuckle all seniors and experienced. I think they'd have the edge. They also easily handled the Stanford team we couldn't.

2011: Like Alex I do think we beat A&M but it's be a good game. ND was a bad situation for us playing them a 4th time. ND should have beaten A&M. This was the title ND should have won during their Final 4 run.

2012: We lose to Baylor but it'd be a far more competitive game than what ND gave them. I still have no idea why ND with all their experience and talent couldn't be more competitive in the championship. Surprising seeing Doris was rooting so hard for them to make it over us (Go get it Skylar!). You'd think ESPN would want a closer game.

 

[Oldbones]

I agree but wouldn't that also mean 1 less NC for UCONN-'13? '13 Baylor was just as strong as '12 Baylor minus 1 Mauling and hot 3PT shooting by Louisville.

I like to think that someone somewhere was thinking about the championship-ruining injuries to Bird, Thomas, Sales, Svet, Shea et al and showering some fortune UConn's way.

 

[UcMiami]

ASweet - in 2001 Geno feels his halftime antics during the semis (up by double digits) was the worst coaching moment of his life. ND scored a three at the buzzer I believe and Geno absolutely exploded in the locker room and lost the team. They came out flat and barely competed in the second half. And had Uconn survived it is very unlikely DT would have had a second 0-fer in the finals!!!

 

[DaddyChoc]

Games where TN lost in semifinals:

1982: La Tech easily beat Tennessee in Pat's first NCAA Final Four, before easily beating Cheyney State.
1986: Tennessee barely made if out of Regional, having to beat #1 seed Georgia by three and #2 LSU by two before being slaughtered by USC. Texas beat USC to finish undefeated.
1988: Lost to La Tech, who went on to beat Auburn by two. Likely would've beat Auburn had we made it to championship game. Did beat Auburn in 1989 NC game.
2002: Had we beaten UConn, I think we would have likely beaten Oklahoma.
2005: Gave up a 16 point lead to Michigan State. This game still hurts, because we were the best team at the Final Four that season, and would've been favored to beat Baylor.

Pat would've likely had at least three more NC.

they played women's basketball in the 80's... I thought it didn't start until 1995

 

[Wally East]

'96 - UConn had already lost, pretty convincingly to Georgia in Storrs. Saudia Roundtree was unstoppable. I'm not sure if UConn would've had an answer for her in April if they didn't in January. I mean, maybe, but it's hard to say.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Massey Ratings actually lets you play what if based on their historical ratings. They go back to 1998. Here are Massey's predictions (for what it's worth

2001 UConn over Purdue 76-67, (win probability for UConn 78%)
2008 UConn over Tenn 69-68 (WPfUC 52%)
2011 UConn over TxA&M 68-64 (WPfUC 60%)
2012 Baylor over UConn 69-61 (WPfUC 24%)

 

[Suebird10fan]

Massey Ratings actually lets you play what if based on their historical ratings. They go back to 1998. Here are Massey's predictions (for what it's worth

2001 UConn over Purdue 76-67, (win probability for UConn 78%)
2008 UConn over Tenn 69-68 (WPfUC 52%)
2011 UConn over TxA&M 68-64 (WPfUC 60%)
2012 Baylor over UConn 69-61 (WPfUC 24%)

2013, by the way, in the event Louisville hadn't hit a million 3s, Massey predicts: UConn 71 Baylor 66