What Has Changed - Stats Perspective

[auror]

So now with a little more equivalent sample, we can take a look at what has changed since we started our losing stretch. Torvik lets you look at team-level stats by date. I set the splitting date for 12/29, right before our first loss, set it to Q3 or better games only and then edited the two next to each other. As you can see, we were #1 in the country through 12/29 in games of this type (Houston was much better at blowing out Q4 teams than us so we were #2 overall) and 30th overall in the most recent stretch (which is better than most people think).

As you can see, the offense is a bit worse, but the defense is much, much worse.

Big differences:
2pt defense... from elite to average.
3pt offense and defense... from strong and elite to below average and average.
Defensive rebounding... from elite to average. Actually got better on offensive glass.
Turnovers forced.. from strong to below average.
Defensive fouling... from bad to awful.

The 3-point shooting on both ends feels a bit "regression-y". Would love for people to offer some explanations for the 2pt D change with no real change in personnel and only modest tweaking to scheme that I have seen.

Overall, we're still fouling a ton (and more than before), without the benefits (forcing teams to shoot a low % and forcing turnovers).

 

[auror]

Here's a similar thing for the players. This is all offensive stats (other than RAPM which is plus minus so includes defensive stuff). Note for this one that top is more recent and bottom is the early part of the season (reverse of the team from above). This is also "Luck adjusted" so some things like 3pt% have been "pre-regressed" as it were.

Calcaterra's nosedive is obvious. Andre's turnovers up, fouls drawn down, and rim shooting % way down. Donovan's finishing has been a bit worse and he's actually drawing more fouls... which unfortunately is his least efficient part of his game. Hawkins free throw rate has almost doubled and his at rim shooting % has climbed to respectable. Newton is finishing much better at the rim and his FT surge in the last couple of games means he has caught back up to non-conf Newton in that regard. His turnovers are also down a tick. Adama's FT rate has tanked and both his 2pt%'s have come down a bit (his rim # is still quite good, it was just unsustainably high before).

 

[tzznandrew]

Here's a similar thing for the players. This is all offensive stats (other than RAPM which is plus minus so includes defensive stuff). Note for this one that top is more recent and bottom is the early part of the season (reverse of the team from above). This is also "Luck adjusted" so some things like 3pt% have been "pre-regressed" as it were.

Calcaterra's nosedive is obvious. Andre's turnovers up, fouls drawn down, and rim shooting % way down. Donovan's finishing has been a bit worse and he's actually drawing more fouls... which unfortunately is his least efficient part of his game. Hawkins free throw rate has almost doubled and his at rim shooting % has climbed to respectable. Newton is finishing much better at the rim and his FT surge in the last couple of games means he has caught back up to non-conf Newton in that regard. His turnovers are also down a tick. Adama's FT rate has tanked and both his 2pt%'s have come down a bit (his rim # is still quite good, it was just unsustainably high before).

I don't think this team will win a title, but you have to wonder if this team just benefits a bit from non-BE refs like that 2011 team did. We've had more fouls called on us in conference and players like Sanogo have drawn fewer fouls despite not really playing that differently.

 

[Tenspro2002]

So now with a little more equivalent sample, we can take a look at what has changed since we started our losing stretch. Torvik lets you look at team-level stats by date. I set the splitting date for 12/29, right before our first loss, set it to Q3 or better games only and then edited the two next to each other. As you can see, we were #1 in the country through 12/29 in games of this type (Houston was much better at blowing out Q4 teams than us so we were #2 overall) and 30th overall in the most recent stretch (which is better than most people think).

As you can see, the offense is a bit worse, but the defense is much, much worse.

Big differences:
2pt defense... from elite to average.
3pt offense and defense... from strong and elite to below average and average.
Defensive rebounding... from elite to average. Actually got better on offensive glass.
Turnovers forced.. from strong to below average.
Defensive fouling... from bad to awful.

The 3-point shooting on both ends feels a bit "regression-y". Would love for people to offer some explanations for the 2pt D change with no real change in personnel and only modest tweaking to scheme that I have seen.

Overall, we're still fouling a ton (and more than before), without the benefits (forcing teams to shoot a low % and forcing turnovers).

By the "eye test," our individual on-ball defense has been much worse lately, which is reflected in each of the much worse 2-point D, increased fouling, and reduced turnover rate (and may also have downstream impact on 3-point D).

Guys need to get back to taking pride in their individual D, playing disciplined with feet and body control, and in the case of Jackson, not trying so hard to make the highlight-reel play on D.

 

[Doginaus]

Impressive! This is a serious dive into player and team statistics. Very well done!

 

[Huskyforlife]

I don't think this team will win a title, but you have to wonder if this team just benefits a bit from non-BE refs like that 2011 team did. We've had more fouls called on us in conference and players like Sanogo have drawn fewer fouls despite not really playing that differently.

I know it’s practically a meme at this point, but we do get a harsh whistle. Those back to back road games against X and PC were astonishingly bad reffing.

But at the same time, all of Dans teams foul, it’s too large a sample to ignore at this point.

 

[HuskyHawk]

So now with a little more equivalent sample, we can take a look at what has changed since we started our losing stretch. Torvik lets you look at team-level stats by date. I set the splitting date for 12/29, right before our first loss, set it to Q3 or better games only and then edited the two next to each other. As you can see, we were #1 in the country through 12/29 in games of this type (Houston was much better at blowing out Q4 teams than us so we were #2 overall) and 30th overall in the most recent stretch (which is better than most people think).

As you can see, the offense is a bit worse, but the defense is much, much worse.

Big differences:
2pt defense... from elite to average.
3pt offense and defense... from strong and elite to below average and average.
Defensive rebounding... from elite to average. Actually got better on offensive glass.
Turnovers forced.. from strong to below average.
Defensive fouling... from bad to awful.

The 3-point shooting on both ends feels a bit "regression-y". Would love for people to offer some explanations for the 2pt D change with no real change in personnel and only modest tweaking to scheme that I have seen.

Overall, we're still fouling a ton (and more than before), without the benefits (forcing teams to shoot a low % and forcing turnovers).

Not going to worry about offense too much. I think the team has mostly solved that. Having Alleyne or Joey C make shots is really the only missing piece.

On defense, I think we are facing coaches that know exactly what we do on defense and have game planned to attack it. Doesn't affect offense much, because even rudimentary scouting says "double Sanogo, stay close to Hawkins". We saw the 2pt defensive issues in real time as there was a parade of guys having birthday parties at our rim. Despite the "Sanogo doesn't protect the rim" crowd, that was caused by the way we failed to handle ball screens and the way we overplayed the 3, plus Sanogo not hedging. Clingan not hedging had less an impact, because he's so big he impacts drives on his own. Have we fixed that? Not entirely.

Do Big East refs impact that foul rate on defense? Probably. Seems that they call touches and reach fouls tighter, and call bodying more loosely than would be the case nationally. Teams like PC thrive on that. St. Johns too. It hurts UConn because, like it or not, this is a high skill, athletic but ultimately "finesse" squad. Outside of the center and PG positions (when Newton is in) opponents are mostly bigger and stronger.

 

[husky429]

Here's a similar thing for the players. This is all offensive stats (other than RAPM which is plus minus so includes defensive stuff). Note for this one that top is more recent and bottom is the early part of the season (reverse of the team from above). This is also "Luck adjusted" so some things like 3pt% have been "pre-regressed" as it were.

Calcaterra's nosedive is obvious. Andre's turnovers up, fouls drawn down, and rim shooting % way down. Donovan's finishing has been a bit worse and he's actually drawing more fouls... which unfortunately is his least efficient part of his game. Hawkins free throw rate has almost doubled and his at rim shooting % has climbed to respectable. Newton is finishing much better at the rim and his FT surge in the last couple of games means he has caught back up to non-conf Newton in that regard. His turnovers are also down a tick. Adama's FT rate has tanked and both his 2pt%'s have come down a bit (his rim # is still quite good, it was just unsustainably high before).

Not much to say, but A+ content. This is what I come here for... not the whining and moaning after every loss.

 

[wheelerdog]

So now with a little more equivalent sample, we can take a look at what has changed since we started our losing stretch. Torvik lets you look at team-level stats by date. I set the splitting date for 12/29, right before our first loss, set it to Q3 or better games only and then edited the two next to each other. As you can see, we were #1 in the country through 12/29 in games of this type (Houston was much better at blowing out Q4 teams than us so we were #2 overall) and 30th overall in the most recent stretch (which is better than most people think).

As you can see, the offense is a bit worse, but the defense is much, much worse.

Big differences:
2pt defense... from elite to average.
3pt offense and defense... from strong and elite to below average and average.
Defensive rebounding... from elite to average. Actually got better on offensive glass.
Turnovers forced.. from strong to below average.
Defensive fouling... from bad to awful.

The 3-point shooting on both ends feels a bit "regression-y". Would love for people to offer some explanations for the 2pt D change with no real change in personnel and only modest tweaking to scheme that I have seen.

Overall, we're still fouling a ton (and more than before), without the benefits (forcing teams to shoot a low % and forcing turnovers).

This is one of the better posts I've ever seen. Nice job!

 

[housekeys]

Overall, we're still fouling a ton (and more than before), without the benefits (forcing teams to shoot a low % and forcing turnovers).

Your last sentence says it all. Why are we playing this way? IDK. How do we change it? IDK. The UConn women had similar faults and Geno was asked that question for the women's game at Tennessee at the half. He had an answer and he is much smarter than me.

BTW, great information.

 

[tennmike]

One thing I can say about the Boneyard, there will always be someone poised to screw up a good narrative with some real data.

My compliments to you on this research.

 

[Colin G]

Teams are attacking the rim and trying to get downhill against us. Our weakness above all else is fouling on defense. Get a few quick fouls on us. Get defense on its heels and then more shots fall for them. I agree with Hurley to a point that Man D has gotten soft, but I think this weakness is being exploited. Hurley loves his teams to play super aggressive on the perimeter, which helps run teams off the line from 3 which is why it's had the smallest dropoff relative to the other struggles on defense. In our losses its not because we're getting torched from 3. Only L we have where other team shoots sub 50% on 2's is Providence. I like the zone looks because they've forced turnovers but they haven't done much to alleviate the issue of defending 2pt shots yet. I really hope this is where Samson factors in more even if he hasn't played much yet. Sanogo has been average defensively when he is the primary interior defender, especially on drives. Him playing with samson and clingan more gives him some "protection" defensively with a rim protector or at least a deterrent for driving bc jury is still out on samson.

 

[pj]

What's WAB? If it's a luck measure, we went from being the luckiest team in college basketball to one of the unluckier teams.

On the individual side, it looks like Newton, Hawkins, and Karaban have stepped up their games and Sanogo has stayed the same. Those are the top players, so it seems like a divergence between the individual and team stats. Maybe we just need to step up the team defense and focus the offense on the best players more, which is an adjustment the coaching staff has already been making. We might be on the road back.

 

[auror]

What's WAB? If it's a luck measure, we went from being the luckiest team in college basketball to one of the unluckier teams.

On the individual side, it looks like Newton, Hawkins, and Karaban have stepped up their games and Sanogo has stayed the same. Those are the top players, so it seems like a divergence between the individual and team stats. Maybe we just need to step up the team defense and focus the offense on the best players more, which is an adjustment the coaching staff has already been making. We might be on the road back.

WAB is wins above bubble, essentially how you performed against your schedule versus what an average bubble team would do. It's results based, not margin, and It's probably my favorite bracketology metric.

 

[bendm]

I don't think this team will win a title, but you have to wonder if this team just benefits a bit from non-BE refs like that 2011 team did. We've had more fouls called on us in conference and players like Sanogo have drawn fewer fouls despite not really playing that differently.

so in the BE the refs dont allow you to breathe on perimeter players but you can commit murder down low

maybe this will help us in march b/c it seems that in the noncon we were allowed to be more physical when defending on the perimeter and we were getting more calls down low on offense, both when posting up and attacking the hoop.

sounds good i hope it's the magic cure to our problems.

 

[caw]

That is a very good analysis, but it should probably be noted:

1) Q1 games in those splits are 3-0 (0H/2N/1A) and 1-5 (2H/0N/4A)
2) Q2 games in those splits are 3-0 (1H/1N/1A) and 0-0
3) Q3 games in those splits are 2-0 (2H/0N/0A) and 2-1 (2H/0N/1A)

Of course if you cut the data too much the stats become less meaningful (sample size becomes too small, and it's already super small from your cuts). However, just eyeballing it the games in the second cut are much harder games with double the Q1 games. Whereas the first slice has a pretty even spread between the three quads, the second slice is heavily skewed to Q1 games and away games. Better teams and better coaches in more hostile arenas are going to make you look worse. Sure part of it could is likely UConn playing worse, but some of it could be the comp being better.

 

[HuskyHawk]

No place to put this, but one of the KU reporters just posed it on Twitter. Pretty solid for UConn (and PC).

 

[MJKI]

That is excellent analysis, thank you for that.
What jumps off the page is the bench guards in that second graph; Hass, Alleyne and Calcaterra being well below average pretty much across the board has really been killer for us. Not much of a drop off from Sanogo to Clingan, as expected. Need one of the three bench guards to get right to have a shot to go far this year

 

[Hurleyman216]

I think part of this defense “regression” is our staff trying to adjust to the Big East officiating. We got murdered by the refs in the PC and Xavier games and then the staff had to have players dial back their defensive pressure to avoid fouling. We probably need to ramp the pressure back up a bit and find a middle ground. On the flip side, teams like Seton Hall were allowed to drape all over our guards without getting called for fouls. Not blaming all of our issues on the refs because there is a lot of blame to be put on players poor shooting and poor coaching as well. The officials in this league are just wildly inconsistent and it seems we have a handful of large ego refs (guys like James Breeding) doing our games on a regular basis. Hoping we can get back to the defensive efficiency we saw at the beginning of the year.