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Message: [QUOTE="kingdobbs, post: 3490427, member: 1655"] That “if” is a pretty important word in the hypothesis though. It’s not a guarantee that things WILL recover that quickly. Hell, it’s not even a guarantee that we will see the spread slow or disappear, we lift the restrictions on us and start to return to normalcy, and that will be the last we ever hear about COVID-19 until at least the next potential pandemic. For all the talk about the “Philly did this, St Louis did this” case study during the 1918 influenza pandemic, it’s worth noting that St Louis saw a resurgence in December after the quarantine was lifted in mid-November, and they had to reinstate their lockdown after thinking themselves in the clear. It is a very plausible scenario that we see a summer lull, only to see an outbreak return in fall and winter. It is a very plausible scenario that we get the virus MOSTLY contained but are basically playing whack a mole for the next year or so, where this week it’s Denver and Kansas City on lockdown but next month it is Minneapolis and Dallas, and the month after that it’s New York and Seattle all over again. There’s basically no way to predict with perfect prescience what will happen. But generally speaking, it’s better to be wrong in the direction of overreacting than the other way around. A perfect reaction to an emergency situation will be virtually indistinguishable from nothing happening at all. [/QUOTE]