Week 8 Gambling

[whaler11]

Tuesday night action. Need to regroup from 2-4 last week.

Like WKU down to -3. Supposed to rain, I'll take the better defense. Friend of mine loves the over. I'll pass.

 

[Dooley]

My early likes:

@Clemson +3 FSU - I'll take the home team's points in what should be a Pick 'em game.
@Stanford -6 UCLA - Tough UCLA schedule going to Oregon last week and Stanford this week on back to back weeks.
Duke/UVA Over 52 (weather permitting)
Ball St -19.5 @ Western Michigan - Ball St had the expected letdown after their UVA game and W Michigan is awful. Back on track here.
@Buffalo -20.5 UMESS - Just because UMass is terrible and Buffalo is on a roll
@ ND -3 USC - I like USC's effort last week but the fact is they are still a mess. I like ND after a bye week.

 

[whaler11]

Hmm I think Florida State is going to blow Clemson out....

 

[john2153]

I had WKY on Tuesday as well...that 99 yard pick 6 as they were about to make it 17-0 completely turned the game around.

UNC +9.5 for tonight.

Still looking at the Saturday card.

 

[whaler11]

I had WKY on Tuesday as well...that 99 yard pick 6 as they were about to make it 17-0 completely turned the game around.

UNC +9.5 for tonight.

Still looking at the Saturday card.

I also have UNC - they are ridiculouslu frustrating.

 

[john2153]

I also have UNC - they are ridiculouslu frustrating.

We saw that in the 2nd half tonight. I'll take the cover, but they completely blew that game.

 

[Dooley]

It's Fri night Over night! For whatever the reason, it seems that Fri night games go Over more often than not.

Note: I do not have any stats that would support my hypothesis but would definitely be interested in seeing some.

 

[Jerry1714]

FSU -3 - taking this solely based on the line, why isn't clemson favored?
ASU -3
IU +10
WVU +7
Wyoming - 7

 

[whaler11]

FSU -3 - taking this solely based on the line, why isn't clemson favored?
ASU -3
IU +10
WVU +7
Wyoming - 7

The vegas bookmaker's top 25 has FSU 3 and Clemson 16.

I watch a lot of Clemson, close with some alumni - been to Death Valley a bunch of times... I really think they are going to get manhandled.

I don't think UCF wins tonight but if they are getting more than 2TDs I like them.

It's hard to say something is 'wrong' with Louisville but they haven't been as dominant as a lot of people expected. I still think they are going 12-0, and I could get burned tonight because if they are getting up for anyone it's UCF.

 

[Carl Spackler]

I'm actually interested in what the odds are that the UCONN v. Michigan game on Saturday night 8pm a few weeks ago beats FSU vs. Clemson this Saturday night in the television ratings.

 

[Jerry1714]

The vegas bookmaker's top 25 has FSU 3 and Clemson 16.

I watch a lot of Clemson, close with some alumni - been to Death Valley a bunch of times... I really think they are going to get manhandled.

I don't think UCF wins tonight but if they are getting more than 2TDs I like them.

It's hard to say something is 'wrong' with Louisville but they haven't been as dominant as a lot of people expected. I still think they are going 12-0, and I could get burned tonight because if they are getting up for anyone it's UCF.

Also hit UCF at +14.5

Which vegas bookmaker? Every site and casino has their own book maker and own power rankings, LVH has Clemson #3 and FSU #6. The GOY line opened Clemson -1.5. Clemson is at home, higher ranked, tougher SOS and experienced QB. Generally this leads to being a favorite. I would probably be on FSU regardless, but the line is fishy and the fact that over 65% of the bets at some sites are on clemson, makes me like it more.

 

[whaler11]

I'm actually interested in what the odds are that the UCONN v. Michigan game on Saturday night 8pm a few weeks ago beats FSU vs. Clemson this Saturday night in the television ratings.

Well Clemson and Florida State have a huge amount of competition while there was nothing decent up against UConn/Michigan, so it won't tell you much anyway.

This week at same time:
Arkansas/bama
LSU/Ole Miss
Notre Dame/USC

UConn/Michigan was against bad blowouts. UConn/Michigan's rating was also combined with Kansas State/Texas when it was published.

I'd still guess that FSU/Clemson will be a good amount higher.

 

[whaler11]

Also hit UCF at +14.5

Which vegas bookmaker? Every site and casino has their own book maker and own power rankings, LVH has Clemson #3 and FSU #6. The GOY line opened Clemson -1.5. Clemson is at home, higher ranked, tougher SOS and experienced QB. Generally this leads to being a favorite. I would probably be on FSU regardless, but the line is fishy and the fact that over 65% of the bets at some sites are on clemson, makes me like it more.

It's a poll of different guys at different places. I don't put a ton of stock in it or anything - just happened to see it.

 

[whaler11]

The UConn/Michigan rating is actually well below the ABC Saturday Night Football average rating.

UConn/Michigan 5.22 million viewers
Average year to date 6.56 million viewers

 

[Jerry1714]

Well Clemson and Florida State have a huge amount of competition while there was nothing decent up against UConn/Michigan, so it won't tell you much anyway.

This week at same time:
Arkansas/bama
LSU/Ole Miss
Notre Dame/USC

UConn/Michigan was against bad blowouts. UConn/Michigan's rating was also combined with Kansas State/Texas when it was published.

I'd still guess that FSU/Clemson will be a good amount higher.

I agree that FSU/Clemson will have a higher number, and I think the ND/USC may have the highest rating of the night games.

There will also be either a game 6 in the ALCS or game 7 for the NLCS that night as well which will affect the ratings.

 

[Sean]

After reading this thread, I like My FSU bet even more!

 

[Dooley]

After reading this thread, I dont' like my Clemson thought any more. Not enough to bet it anyway. I'm always wary of FSU in the tight spot and don't still don't like the idea of a FR QB going into Death Valley, but the thread is right, something is fishy with the line.

 

[john2153]

What I'm liking this weekend:

Ball St -20 at Western Michigan
Wake Forest +5.5 vs Maryland
West Virginia +5.5 vs Texas Tech
Northwestern -12.5 vs Minnesota
Memphis -3 vs SMU
Oregon St -10 at Cal
Arizona -4 vs Utah

 

[whaler11]

Hopefully some day someone can explain to me the point of instant replay since it doesn't seem to serve a purpose. There is no way he had possession of that interception when his foot was down and they didn't even review it.

 

[whaler11]

Saturday stuff:

Virginia -3
N. Illinois -14.5
Free Shoe U -3
UConn +14.5
Wyoming -5.5
Indiana +9
Arkansas +29
Florida -3
Buffalo -19.5

UCLA, Mississippi and the New Mexico over are tempting.

 

[whaler11]

How did they miss this fumble call in real time. That ball clearly hit the pylon.

UCF had to call timeout to get this play reviewed? The replay system is so horrendous it's unpossible.

 

[whaler11]

Added army +1 and purdue over 44.

Not going to play it out of respect to EMU , but Ohio -15.5 seems like a bad number now.

 

[Dooley]

Earlier games:

Cincinnati -14 (bought points down from 15.5)
Wyoming -7
Buffalo -20

Also 10 pt teased these 3.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Jumped on the army sucker bet
Smu up big

Iowa state +33
Utah state -11
Byu -9.5
North texas -3.5
Uva -2.5

 

[whaler11]

If youd like to get paid fading me. I took Buffalo, Houston, Virginia, Maryland and Indiana.