Week 1 Gamblor

[whaler11]

I've got a few thousand words coming on the season in the next few days (I know that is exciting to many of you) but in the meantime...

I like some unpopular dogs in Week 1.

I think Tulane may beat Duke. Certainly love them +9.5.

Ticked down recently so I wouldn't bet it +2.5 but it Carolina goes back to +3 against USCse have to like the Tar Heels.

Sticking w UNC schools - Charlotte getting 5/5.5 from Georgia State looks pretty solid.

I played Northwestern at +12. Fingers crossed it goes to 13/14 for more.

Louisville +11

Arizona State +3

Can't play the Owls at 6.5 but would love them at 7.

No opinion but Purdue getting 7.5 @ Marshall is pretty funny.

 

[Husky68]

Not much of a sports gambler but does it really make that much difference Owls with 6.5 vs. 7?

 

[whaler11]

Not much of a sports gambler but does it really make that much difference Owls with 6.5 vs. 7?

Game would land PSU by exactly 7 about 5.2% of the time.

Since you can get +6.5 betting 110 to win 100, to get +7 you have to bet ~125 to win 100.

So in short, yes it's a big difference. The difference from 2.5 to 3 is even bigger because 2.5 point favs win by exactly three ~6.5% of the time.

 

[Srqhusky]

What is the line on uconn-nova?

 

[whaler11]

What is the line on uconn-nova?

Villanova -3

 

[Palatine]

Villanova -3

That's basically pick 'em with the three point home field advantage for the Huskies.

If we can't cover that get out the jelly because we're toast.

 

[UConn9604]

That's basically pick 'em with the three point home field advantage for the Huskies.

If we can't cover that get out the jelly because we're toast.

Isn't it the other way around - isn't Vegas saying they're a TD favorite against us, on a neutral field, and it's only a -3 because we're playing at The Rent?

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

Isn't it the other way around - isn't Vegas saying they're a TD favorite against us, on a neutral field, and it's only a -3 because we're playing at The Rent?

You are correct. They are basically saying on a neutral field it would be Nova -6.

 

[whaler11]

That's basically pick 'em with the three point home field advantage for the Huskies.

If we can't cover that get out the jelly because we're toast.

It's the opposite - Villanova would be a TD fave on a neutral field. Rentschler is worth ~4 points in the market.

 

[phillionaire]

Relavent Simpson's clip:

 

[Drew]

Arizona State is the biggest lock and it isn't even close. Overrated TAMU squad and ASU is coming to play this year, their QB is no joke.

 

[Jerry1714]

I've got a few thousand words coming on the season in the next few days (I know that is exciting to many of you) but in the meantime...

I like some unpopular dogs in Week 1.

I think Tulane may beat Duke. Certainly love them +9.5.

Ticked down recently so I wouldn't bet it +2.5 but it Carolina goes back to +3 against USCse have to like the Tar Heels.

Sticking w UNC schools - Charlotte getting 5/5.5 from Georgia State looks pretty solid.

I played Northwestern at +12. Fingers crossed it goes to 13/14 for more.

Louisville +11

Arizona State +3

Can't play the Owls at 6.5 but would love them at 7.

No opinion but Purdue getting 7.5 @ Marshall is pretty funny.

+7 is out there for Temple, my guy still has it there. It was the first game I jumped on.

TCU +14, sucker bet, yup, but they will roll.

Northwesterm +12

 

[Nostical]

UConn +3 may be the best bet of my lifetime.

 

[Palatine]

It's the opposite - Villanova would be a TD fave on a neutral field. Rentschler is worth ~4 points in the market.

If Rentschler is a 4 point home field advantage for the Huskies, than the numbers change to a 1 point Nova advantage on a neutral field, and a 5 point advantage (assuming Nova has the same home field advantage as the Huskies) if the game at Nova.

UConn 3 point favorite at home. (4 point home advantage)
Nova 1 point favorite neutral. (no home advantage)
Nova 5 point favorite at home. (4 point home advantage)

 

[whaler11]

If Rentschler is a 4 point home field advantage for the Huskies, than the numbers change to a 1 point Nova advantage on a neutral field, and a 5 point advantage (assuming Nova has the same home field advantage as the Huskies) if the game at Nova.

UConn 3 point favorite at home. (4 point home advantage)
Nova 1 point favorite neutral. (no home advantage)
Nova 5 point favorite at home. (4 point home advantage)

Nova is a 3 point favorite at Rentschler. I think that is what you are missing.

 

[Palatine]

Nova is a 3 point favorite at Rentschler. I think that is what you are missing.

That is insane.

 

[whaler11]

That is insane.

If it was insane it wouldn't be the number.

 

[Nostical]

If it was insane it wouldn't be the number.

Don't be so sure. That's how gamblers win. Looking for insane lines. Palatine is right. This is an insane line. There is no way on God's green earth that Nova is coming into The Rent and beating THIS UConn team. No one in Vegas believes in this crew. The sharps and odds makers are too busy following the big boys. The Huskies are an under the radar team and they are much improved. I once met a guy in Vegas during BBall season --a professional gambler-- who said the best bet that day was Valdosta State -6 against Centenary. Who? What? They crushed them. He called them freaky gift lines--usually on under the radar teams. He studied the smaller teams. He said when you find them, pounce. UConn +3 is a freaky gift line. Time to pounce.

 

[whaler11]

Don't be so sure. That's how gamblers win. Looking for insane lines. Palatine is right. This is an insane line. There is no way on God's green earth that Nova is coming into The Rent and beating THIS UConn team. No one in Vegas believes in this crew. The sharps and odds makers are too busy following the big boys. The Huskies are an under the radar team and they are much improved. I once met a guy in Vegas during BBall season --a professional gambler-- who said the best bet that day was Valdosta State -6 against Centenary. Who? What? They crushed them. He called them freaky gift lines--usually on under the radar teams. He studied the smaller teams. He said when you find them, pounce. UConn +3 is a freaky gift line. Time to pounce.

You guys have no clue what you are talking about.

If it was an insane line it would be bet to a different number.

It's been 3 forever - it's a small market. If anyone respected was hammering it at 3, it would cease to be 3.

Speaking with such confidence on who is going to win a games lined at 3 points is crazy talk.

As for your hypotheical story - Valdosta State plays Division II basketball and Centenary plays Division III basketball now and played Division I basketball
prior to that....

The only time in history there would have been a line on Valdosta State would have been the 2010 D2 Elite Eight and they lost to Indiana (PA) by 16.

Other than that cool story bro.

 

[Nostical]

Ha! The story is true but I plucked those teams from thin air cause the actual ones have been forgotten. Maybe Illinois St vs Northern Iowa, etc. That's not important--- but the lines don't move because they are not being paid attention to.
If you dont have the confidence to believe UConn beats Nova then I'm not sure what you've been looking at this spring and summer. Our defense is much better and our offense will be shockingly better. Nova will be beating their chests coming off of last years promising season. We will smash them.

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

It is true that the first week or two is when the oddsmakers are most vulnerable. Even with top programs. With high turnover, college teams are hard to project accurately without seeing them on the field and without a preseason.

But ...whaler is right, the line isn't insane. Nova was a very good FCS team and UConn was a very bad FBS team. Usually that results in the FCS team winning. Add in that PAWS ARF currently isn't an intimidating place to play and it's understandable why UCOnn is a 3 point dog.

I believe that UConn will be much better in two weeks than they were at the end of last year, but it's pretty obvious oddsmakers and gamblers( or gamblors) don't think so. It's not insane but rather a harsh reality.

 

[whaler11]

Ha! The story is true but I plucked those teams from thin air cause the actual ones have been forgotten. Maybe Illinois St vs Northern Iowa, etc. That's not important--- but the lines don't move because they are not being paid attention to.
If you dont have the confidence to believe UConn beats Nova then I'm not sure what you've been looking at this spring and summer. Our defense is much better and our offense will be shockingly better. Nova will be beating their chests coming off of last years promising season. We will smash them.

You completely contradict yourself. Saying that gamblers win on under the radar games yet no one is paying attention to this line. The Western Kentucky line for example has moved an insane amount - almost two touchdowns.

People have waited 8 months to bet again - I can assure you that every Thursday game has been picked over.

Um, I haven't looked at anything since the spring game because there is nothing to look at. What exactly am I supposed to be looking at? Dez Conner articles? Boneyard posts? Those provide about zero insight.

I hope you are right, but you have provided absolutely nothing that would support your opinion beyond your own broad statements.

 

[Srqhusky]

UConn +3 may be the best bet of my lifetime.

Actually the 33-34 points you will get at Missouri might be a better bet. If we can ground and pound and eat clock we can win with the points

 

[itgoeslike]

There appears to be some question as to whether Brad Seaton will be ready to play, or it could be a ruse. . .

Luckily for Villanova, the most important position on the offensive line returns a starter in Brad Seaton. The 6'8", 310 pound junior started every game at left tackle last season and did an excellent job protecting John Robertson's blind side. Seaton is essentially the Wildcats' version of Gregor 'The Mountain' Clegane from Game of Thrones. There is some doubt over Seaton's health entering the season, so hopefully he's ready to rock for UConn.

LINK

 

[Jerry1714]

Don't be so sure. That's how gamblers win. Looking for insane lines. Palatine is right. This is an insane line. There is no way on God's green earth that Nova is coming into The Rent and beating THIS UConn team. No one in Vegas believes in this crew. The sharps and odds makers are too busy following the big boys. The Huskies are an under the radar team and they are much improved. I once met a guy in Vegas during BBall season --a professional gambler-- who said the best bet that day was Valdosta State -6 against Centenary. Who? What? They crushed them. He called them freaky gift lines--usually on under the radar teams. He studied the smaller teams. He said when you find them, pounce. UConn +3 is a freaky gift line. Time to pounce.

This is a post by someone who does not bet on sports. No other explanation for it.