Week 1 AAC Lines | The Boneyard

Week 1 AAC Lines

Drew

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Went on Vegas Insider and got the following...

UCLA @ Cincinnati (-4)
Ole Miss @ Memphis (-6.5)
FIU @ Tulane (-3)
SMU (+3.5) @ Arkansas State
Wisconsin (-10.5) @ USF
Tulsa @ Michigan State (-21.5)
ECU @ NC State (-20.5)
Houston @ Oklahoma (-26.5)

FBS v FCS game lines will come out closer to kickoff
 
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Wow, Oklahoma loses their best QB and WR, and is still almost a four TD favorite over Houston. Is Ole Miss that bad or is Memphis that good?
 

Dream Jobbed 2.0

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Wow, Oklahoma loses their best QB and WR, and is still almost a four TD favorite over Houston. Is Ole Miss that bad or is Memphis that good?
Game is at Memphis. Memphis has had some recent success. Not so much Ole Miss. However, expect a large throng of Ole Miss fans as Memphis is the largest city in Mississippi.
 
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Win all those games and the ESPN talking heads would explode. Win the favored games, sneak by AS and win one of the other games and that would be quite the start (assuming UConn doesn't embarrass the league by losing to Wagner).
Considering that ECU lost to NCS by 55 at the end of 2018, if I were a football bettor I'd have to think about going with NCS and give the points. Wisconsin only 10.5 of USF, maybe expecting heat exhaustion for the Badgers as USF gave up 30 to UConn and 42 to UMass last year.
I don't know how they set up spreads (want to get even betting guess so get the vig) but would love to hear how they evaluate UConn coaches, players, schemes, execution and deportment to come up with their number.
Talk about odds of winning, Massey (not sure if these guys mean this or are just having fun this early in summer) but anyway, for Clemson's 12 games the LOWEST % likeliness of winning is 91% in an away game against THE FRUIT! Just for comparison UConn highest FBS probable winning % is 37% in a home game to ECU.

I know rating guys must have a tendency to kick you when you're down and hype you for recent success but having UConn with only a 27% chance of beating UMass, wow. Add up the winning probabilities of the UConn FBS games and get to 1.7. Right now I'd say winning 2 FBS games will be a challenge for UConn, but a legitimate goal. Anything above that would be most wins since the Diaco magical 2015 season where we beat the 0-12 UCF team 40-13 and came within 2 fake field goals of beating Missouri.
 
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Win all those games and the ESPN talking heads would explode. Win the favored games, sneak by AS and win one of the other games and that would be quite the start (assuming UConn doesn't embarrass the league by losing to Wagner).

There is no way an Edsall team in Year 3 loses to Wagner College. A Diaco team? Yeah. A PP/GD team? Not likely but I wouldn't rule it out. HCRE? UCONN wins by 3 TDS as I see it today.
 

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This team will be much better. The combo of Marvin Washington and Keiyon Dixon will be a game changer.
 
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There is no way an Edsall team in Year 3 loses to Wagner College. A Diaco team? Yeah. A PP/GD team? Not likely but I wouldn't rule it out. HCRE? UCONN wins by 3 TDS as I see it today.
Before I go bet on what you said, before the games in 2017 and 2018 how much did you have UConn beating Holy Cross by in 2017 and Rhode Island in 2018; and how close was your over/under in 2018 to the actual 105 number?
 
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Before I go bet on what you said, before the games in 2017 and 2018 how much did you have UConn beating Holy Cross by in 2017 and Rhode Island in 2018; and how close was your over/under in 2018 to the actual 105 number?

We can go Rutgers-scheduling. Like SWAC or MEACing.

A Good Howard or South Carolina State to start. Cause ... we done playing Villanova.
 

whaler11

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We can go Rutgers-scheduling. Like SWAC or MEACing.

A Good Howard or South Carolina State to start. Cause ... we done playing Villanova.

Wagner is a 40 scholarship program. How much worse can it get.
 
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Wagner is gonna be very fired up. Don’t get many chances to play in front of 13,000 fans
Home opener, people still have the Rose colored glasses, and weather has everyone feeling great. Expect closer to 20k....
 

whaler11

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Home opener, people still have the Rose colored glasses, and weather has everyone feeling great. Expect closer to 20k....

lol. they will be lucky to outdraw the yard goats.
 
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Wagner is going to get trounced over. Win by 4TD at minimum. If I’m wrong, sheesh, season over in week 1. They play in the NEC one of the worst NCAA FCS conferences.
 

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