Vic Schaefer vs. Nikki McCray Penson in 2020-21

[MSUrealist]

It seems like most MS State fans are bemoaning the loss of Vic Schaefer and clamoring for the removal of Nikki McCray Penson, but I'm going to argue that the coaching performances of these two have been virtually the same this season. Disagreements are welcomed as long as they are based on something real rather than just an emotional response based on speculation of what would have happened, etc, AND if you don't just look at the W-L records and conference standings and declare "case closed" because that is too simplistic as I will explain below.

While judging a coach's performance is an inexact science, a fairly accurate comparison can be made by looking at the team's roster, their strength of schedule, and the results. Let's start a look at the rosters by comparing the 3 former McDonald's All-Americans on each team:

--Rickea Jackson and Celeste Taylor: Sophomore guards who were named to the all-conference freshman team last year. IMO, I give the slight edge to Jackson as the better of these two.
--Charli Collier and Sidney Cooks: Both juniors, Collier was 1st team all-conference last year and has been projected as the #1 pick in the WNBA draft while Cooks sat out last year after transferring. No offense to Cooks, but give Texas a big advantage in this comparison.
--Kyra Lambert and Madison Hayes: Lambert is a graduate student who had 77 starts during her 3 seasons at Duke. Hayes is in her freshman season. Based on experience alone, you have to give the edge to Lambert.

I give Texas a solid advantage when it comes to the 3 comparisons above, but Jessica Carter compared to the Texas #4 player probably brings the talent levels back towards equal. Then if you take the time to go down the remaining players on each roster you'll see that things are fairly even. All in all, it seems to me that Vic and Nikki are working with equal talent this season, with both teams lacking in experience and depth. If you disagree, I would be interested in seeing your list of player-to-player comparisons.

Moving on, Vic easily wins when it comes to W-L record and conference standing. Texas is 16-6 overall, and is 4th in the Big 12 with a 10-5 record. MS State is 10-7 overall, and is 8th in the SEC with a 5-6 record. But then you come to "Strength of Schedule" and MS State has played the 6th toughest schedule while Texas is down at #30 (see link below). It's only natural for Texas to have the far better record so let's take a closer look at how these teams have done against ranked and unranked teams:

---Against teams currently ranked in the AP top-25, Texas is 0-4 having lost to the #3 Texas A&M, #7 Baylor, and twice to #18 W. Virginia. MS State is 1-5, having lost to #3 Texas A&M, #5 S. Carolina, #13 South Florida, #16 Arkansas, #19 Kentucky while having a win against #17 Georgia. Give MS State an edge here for having won a game and having lost a couple in OT, but obviously neither coach has done well against top-25 teams this year.
---Against unranked teams: Texas is 16-2 in this category with a loss to a bad Texas Tech (5-12) team and a loss to a good Oklahoma State (13-5) team. MS State is 9-2 against unranked teams with both losses come to a good Alabama (15-7) team. Even though MS State doesn't have a loss to a team with a record worse than 15-7 this year, I'm okay if you want to give Texas a slight edge because they have 7 more wins against unranked teams.

SO, to sum up for anyone who has made it this far, the roster strength at Texas and MS State are amazingly similar this year. The results of the two teams are amazingly similar when you factor in the strength of the competition played. The situation of having to try and install a new system, become familiar with new players, scout unfamiliar teams, etc, are exactly the same for both coaches. It all adds up to the reality that the job performance of Vic Schaefer at Texas and Nikki McCray Penson at MS State have been almost identical in 2020-21. You can say that both have done great in a transition year, or both have done terrible, or that with all the disruptions of Covid this is a season where judgement should be put on hold until next year. What the reality doesn't allow a person to say is that one coach has done great and the other has done terrible. At least that my opinion after taking a lengthy look at both teams.

Women's College Basketball Strength of Schedule (SOS) | WarrenNolan.com

2021 Women's College Basketball Strength of Schedule (SOS) Updated in REAL-TIME for Every Team at the Completion of Every Game.

warrennolan.com

 

[SimpleDawg]

Man........ you just won't give it up will you? Might I suggest the Mississippi State board next time? You will probably be met with more hostility over there because everyone over there is used to this set of subtle excuse whispers, but at least you're not turning this board into the Mississippi State board. This whole song is also getting old and I've heard this all before.

This is a nice study except the part you missed about Vic having to remove the stain of Karen Aston from Austin, while McCray was given one of the best places to coach women's basketball in 2020.

Sure once Texas gets going, it will likely easily beat Mississippi State in resources, culture, recruiting, and everything. But in 2020, it was much easier to win in Starkville than in Texas because of the mediocrity and deadbeat mentality that Karen Aston left on her players during her time. Vic would've crushed Texas with his last 4 teams and this year's team had he not left. So... that's essentially 5 years that a Texas team put together mostly by Karen Aston would not have beaten Vic. I also remember that he did actually beat them in 2016 and 2018.

What's your opinion on Ben Howland's first year in Starkville? He had some 5 stars and highly decorated recruits his first year, but he took over a bottom of the league team and couldn't break .500 - I'd like to hear your take on that because I'm guessing Vic did a heck of a lot better job in Texas than Howland did his first year in Starkville.

You also missed the part that Vic has 3 McDonald's All-Americans arriving next year. How many is McCray gonna keep is gonna be the question while Vic doesn't even need to worry about that. (OK, maybe Collier goes to the WNBA... but they still have tons of talent coming in while MSU is declining in incoming talent) Another tidbit you missed.

 

[Centerstream]

Man........ you just won't give it up will you? Might I suggest the Mississippi State board next time?

I second the motion. Jeesh.

 

[GoDawgs4]

More important than the W-L record is how the team is playing. State has looked lethargic, uninspired with a poor effort most of the season. Plus our FT shooting has been atrocious. The last two games the team has had two good quarters (3rd quarter in each game) and has beaten two bad teams. IF they can replicate those quarters for an entire game or at least for most of a game then we may start reaching our potential. That remains to be seen.

Schaefer, IMHO, will find it very difficult to garner the same success at Texas that he had at State. He is a great coach however the culture at UT is spoiled and arrogant and those players will not buy into his blue collar approach. He will be successful and win games but they won’t climb to the mountain top.

The jury is out on NMP. She has lost a lot of credibility this year not because of the W-L record but because of the way the team has played most of the year. The big question is will she do better there.
We will see.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Man........ you just won't give it up will you? Might I suggest the Mississippi State board next time? You will probably be met with more hostility over there because everyone over there is used to this set of subtle excuse whispers, but at least you're not turning this board into the Mississippi State board. This whole song is also getting old and I've heard this all before.

This is a nice study except the part you missed about Vic having to remove the stain of Karen Aston from Austin, while McCray was given one of the best places to coach women's basketball in 2020.

Sure once Texas gets going, it will likely easily beat Mississippi State in resources, culture, recruiting, and everything. But in 2020, it was much easier to win in Starkville than in Texas because of the mediocrity and deadbeat mentality that Karen Aston left on her players during her time. Vic would've crushed Texas with his last 4 teams and this year's team had he not left. So... that's essentially 5 years that a Texas team put together mostly by Karen Aston would not have beaten Vic. I also remember that he did actually beat them in 2016 and 2018.

What's your opinion on Ben Howland's first year in Starkville? He had some 5 stars and highly decorated recruits his first year, but he took over a bottom of the league team and couldn't break .500 - I'd like to hear your take on that because I'm guessing Vic did a heck of a lot better job in Texas than Howland did his first year in Starkville.

You also missed the part that Vic has 3 McDonald's All-Americans arriving next year. How many is McCray gonna keep is gonna be the question while Vic doesn't even need to worry about that. (OK, maybe Collier goes to the WNBA... but they still have tons of talent coming in while MSU is declining in incoming talent) Another tidbit you missed.

Aston won nearly 70% of her games at Texas.

 

[MSUrealist]

SimpleDawg, I knew you would be the first to reply and I suspected that you would address nothing in my original post. I do keep up with the MS State boards where the knowledge and interest is women's basketball is small and uninformed with the exception of a few users like "jdelta02". And you are right that I haven't given up on trying to debunk some of the gross misconceptions like MS State had a top-10 talented roster returning this year or that Chloe Bibby left for Maryland because she wasn't going to be good enough to get playing time in Starkville this year.

The reason to care about how Vic Schaefer is doing at Texas is because MSU fans are so certain that the program has taken a giant step back in coaching. Has it really? Everything I outlined in my original post indicates that he has done no better and no worse in Austin than NMP has done in Starkville. You don't refute this. Instead you bring up:

---the stain of Karen Aston.
---Vic's last 4 MSU teams being better than the last 4 Texas teams--the Teaira McCowan years plus one.
---a tangent about the men's basketball coach at MSU.
---Vic's recruiting class being better for next year.

These things have nothing to do with the coaching job done in 2020-21. For the record, I think Vic is going to do just fine in Texas once he gets his system fully installed, once he gets a roster with his kind of players, once practice time and contact with players get back to normal, etc. I think the same will be true with NMP at MS State. I know that your mind will never be changed on this topic, but maybe there are some fans with a more open mind who will read my posts and at least decide to wait until next year before deciding that this is one of the worst hires in MSU history and NMP needs to go. (BTW, I've felt for the last several years that Ben Howland is like Andy Kennedy was at Ole Miss. He will win just enough to make you hesitant to fire him, but he is rarely going to elevate the program to the upper level of the SEC.)

 

[LETTERL]

Why not just give BOTH coaches at least three years in their new positions before passing judgement? Rome wasn't built in a day. It often takes a full recruiting cycle for a program to get on track. Vic is trying to change a culture in Texas...Nikki is trying to build off what Schaeffer left her.

I understand you wanting success RIGHT NOW but you just need to be patient.

I'll close by referencing Wes Moore at NC State. This is his 8th season with NC State...but it wasn't until year 5 that the Wolfpack Women became a team that could be relied on to win most of the games they play, which coincided with him having a full recruiting cycle to get the players he wanted to fit his program. And no disrespect to Mississippi State, but they don't have the tradition that NC State does, as a once great power who went through some lean times before re-establishing itself. Much of the great success Mississippi State had during the latter part of Schaeffer's tenure was because of a once-in-a-generation player like McCowan...but she's gone now, and isn't coming back.

These things take time. So, sit back and see what happens.

 

[DefenseBB]

So, I read this thread with curious anticipation of the reaction and they did not disappoint. While I feel bad for our 'Dawg brethren, I am not as much vested in their emotional angst. McCray has disappointed, no question about that.

First, let's just stop the comparison as if Vic inherited complete dysfunction the way Kelly Jolly Harper did at Tennessee. Karen did get top recruits with minimal discord to the press. She did underachieve and could not coach a cohesive offense. As her contract was up, Texas decided to move on from her. "Dysfunction" is not a word I would characterize the situation at all as being under. Vic absolutely inherited very talented players in the top 4, however flawed their offense was. No one is saying that Vic is doing a great job this year (save for the wistful MSU fans longing for the past). He has however, made/kept Texas an NCAAT team. Texas is ranked 60th on offense and 20th on defense. I will be surprised if they make it past the second round and depending on their seed, could face a tough team in the 1st round.

Second, MSU has played uninspired basketball and are also dysfunctional at times on offense and on defense. They have had many close losses to good team which I do think has altered their psych. Ironically, MSU has the #18 ranked offense and 54th defense. Jackson seems to have regressed (though @LETTERL has her as a guard, she is NOT a guard maybe a 3 but is listed as a 4) and is not leading the way I thought she would. That, to me, is on the coach. With the new transfer rules, I could see some serious defections this year. That would be devastating for NMP and would/could be a death knell for her at MSU.

To compare what Wes Moore did at NC State is not remotely the same situation as either of these two. That program was very down (Ironically from Kelly Jolly Harper failures) and he has made incremental improvements each year. It also helps he has a generational player for that program in Cunnane (also similar to Vic with Teiara). So while I hear what our fine NC State fan is trying to do, one trend is clearly upward and the other is, at best, unknown.

Last, I am not of the opinion that Vic will take Texas to the promised land as he has to replicate his past success without his "Big T" and he hasn't shown that ability yet AND he has to get past a Baylor program that is one of the 4 Elite programs in WCBB.

 

[LETTERL]

Jackson seems to have regressed (though @LETTERL has her as a guard, she is NOT a guard maybe a 3 but is listed as a 4) and is not leading the way I thought she would.

You have me confused with someone else. Unless I'm living in an alternate universe, I can't recall ever discussing this year's Bulldog personnel.

 

[DefenseBB]

You have me confused with someone else. Unless I'm living in an alternate universe, I can't recall ever discussing this year's Bulldog personnel.

My apologies LetterL, You are correct, I was reading your post, and was thinking you initiated the thread. It was @MSUrealist who evidently confused his own team composition by listing Rickea as a guard.

 

[SimpleDawg]

Aston won nearly 70% of her games at Texas.

I think she was mediocre for Texas standards. 1 Elite 8 in 8 years. 3 conference 15-3 records looked like she was doing well for a while, but she had them eventually start to hover around the tail end of the Top 25 (and out of the Top 25 at the end) and that's why she was let go.

 

[MSUrealist]

Why not just give BOTH coaches at least three years in their new positions before passing judgement? Rome wasn't built in a day. It often takes a full recruiting cycle for a program to get on track. Vic is trying to change a culture in Texas...Nikki is trying to build off what Schaeffer left her.

I understand you wanting success RIGHT NOW but you just need to be patient.

I'll close by referencing Wes Moore at NC State. This is his 8th season with NC State...but it wasn't until year 5 that the Wolfpack Women became a team that could be relied on to win most of the games they play, which coincided with him having a full recruiting cycle to get the players he wanted to fit his program. And no disrespect to Mississippi State, but they don't have the tradition that NC State does, as a once great power who went through some lean times before re-establishing itself. Much of the great success Mississippi State had during the latter part of Schaeffer's tenure was because of a once-in-a-generation player like McCowan...but she's gone now, and isn't coming back.

These things take time. So, sit back and see what happens.

LETTERL, I agree with you and what you write is especially true this year when there has been less time for a new coach to make changes, get to really know the players and their strengths and weaknesses, etc. In previous posts I've advocated that MSU fans give NMP the time that new coaches need, but those arguments have been roundly dismissed and she has been portrayed as a tremendous step down from Vic Schaefer. Therefore, as a way of showing how difficult it is for a coach taking over a new program, I wrote this post to point out that Vic is facing the same problems at Texas and isn't doing any better in Austin this year than NMP is doing in Starkville. If they can see that Vic is struggling, then maybe they will better see the situation NMP is dealing with this year. BTW, Texas lost a home game today to an Oklahoma team that is now 10-10 FWIW.

 

[MSUrealist]

So, I read this thread with curious anticipation of the reaction and they did not disappoint. While I feel bad for our 'Dawg brethren, I am not as much vested in their emotional angst. McCray has disappointed, no question about that.

First, let's just stop the comparison as if Vic inherited complete dysfunction the way Kelly Jolly Harper did at Tennessee. Karen did get top recruits with minimal discord to the press. She did underachieve and could not coach a cohesive offense. As her contract was up, Texas decided to move on from her. "Dysfunction" is not a word I would characterize the situation at all as being under. Vic absolutely inherited very talented players in the top 4, however flawed their offense was. No one is saying that Vic is doing a great job this year (save for the wistful MSU fans longing for the past). He has however, made/kept Texas an NCAAT team. Texas is ranked 60th on offense and 20th on defense. I will be surprised if they make it past the second round and depending on their seed, could face a tough team in the 1st round.

Second, MSU has played uninspired basketball and are also dysfunctional at times on offense and on defense. They have had many close losses to good team which I do think has altered their psych. Ironically, MSU has the #18 ranked offense and 54th defense. Jackson seems to have regressed (though @LETTERL has her as a guard, she is NOT a guard maybe a 3 but is listed as a 4) and is not leading the way I thought she would. That, to me, is on the coach. With the new transfer rules, I could see some serious defections this year. That would be devastating for NMP and would/could be a death knell for her at MSU.

To compare what Wes Moore did at NC State is not remotely the same situation as either of these two. That program was very down (Ironically from Kelly Jolly Harper failures) and he has made incremental improvements each year. It also helps he has a generational player for that program in Cunnane (also similar to Vic with Teiara). So while I hear what our fine NC State fan is trying to do, one trend is clearly upward and the other is, at best, unknown.

Last, I am not of the opinion that Vic will take Texas to the promised land as he has to replicate his past success without his "Big T" and he hasn't shown that ability yet AND he has to get past a Baylor program that is one of the 4 Elite programs in WCBB.

DefenseBB, I basically agree with what you wrote and appreciate your input. On the topic of Rickea Jackson, she is almost exclusively a 3 which I consider a guard rather than a small forward, but either way is fine. As far as Jackson regressing some this season, IMO a lot of what we are seeing is that NMP wants to expand the role of Jackson over how she was used last year. In Vic's dribble-drive system, Jackson's offense was built around coming off screens and mostly shooting open mid-range jump shots or drives to the basket. She only took 10 3-point shots in the 19 games against SEC opponents. NMP has often said that she wants Jackson to become a threat on 3-point shots and one-on-one situations as well, and at times it has looked like a case of Jackson taking one step back to move two steps forward. Likewise, Carter wasn't involved all that much in the offense last year except for putting back offensive rebounds and having balls dumped off to her after someone drove into the paint. They are trying to get the ball inside to her more this year with the idea that Carter make moves towards the basket, but usually she goes to the fadeaway jump shot. So that's a work in progress.

BTW, I do agree with you that Teaira McCowan was to MS State somewhat like Larry Bird was to Indiana State. Vic made MS State a solid top-20 program and that was a great accomplishment, but McCowan was that player who elevated the program to the very highest levels. I don't think it is outrageous to suggest that if Texas had McCowan instead of Collier or MS State had McCowan instead of Carter, both of those teams could quite possibly be top-10 right now. I said could, not would, but I personally think they would be.

 

[Tazmazz]

Man........ you just won't give it up will you? Might I suggest the Mississippi State board next time? You will probably be met with more hostility over there because everyone over there is used to this set of subtle excuse whispers, but at least you're not turning this board into the Mississippi State board. This whole song is also getting old and I've heard this all before.

This is a nice study except the part you missed about Vic having to remove the stain of Karen Aston from Austin, while McCray was given one of the best places to coach women's basketball in 2020.

Sure once Texas gets going, it will likely easily beat Mississippi State in resources, culture, recruiting, and everything. But in 2020, it was much easier to win in Starkville than in Texas because of the mediocrity and deadbeat mentality that Karen Aston left on her players during her time. Vic would've crushed Texas with his last 4 teams and this year's team had he not left. So... that's essentially 5 years that a Texas team put together mostly by Karen Aston would not have beaten Vic. I also remember that he did actually beat them in 2016 and 2018.

What's your opinion on Ben Howland's first year in Starkville? He had some 5 stars and highly decorated recruits his first year, but he took over a bottom of the league team and couldn't break .500 - I'd like to hear your take on that because I'm guessing Vic did a heck of a lot better job in Texas than Howland did his first year in Starkville.

You also missed the part that Vic has 3 McDonald's All-Americans arriving next year. How many is McCray gonna keep is gonna be the question while Vic doesn't even need to worry about that. (OK, maybe Collier goes to the WNBA... but they still have tons of talent coming in while MSU is declining in incoming talent) Another tidbit you missed.

Collier will go to the W but she’s not ready.

 

[JellyBean]

I think both coaches will be okay in the long run.