UT Source - 15% chance of B12 expansion

[junglehusky]

Via K. Bohls and B. Davis -
Examining the Big 12’s options: Expansion? Stand pat?

An influential Texas source puts the likelihood of expansion for the Big 12 at 15 percent. The source said the Longhorns could eventually go elsewhere, but not before the grant of rights involving first-tier television rights for marquee football and basketball games expires in 2024.

Would Texas ever consider leaving the conference?

“Hell, yes,” he said. “Broadcast rights are pledged through 2024. That is eight years of forced marriage. I see another realignment at that time, if not sooner. The Texas-OU football game would survive regardless of a league change.”

Would Texas leave before 2024?

“Who knows?,” he said. “A lot could happen.”

“We monitor every tweet, every article, every comment, every president’s speech,” [Cincy AD] Bohn said. “We’re engaged on all those different levels. I’m a big believer in leadership models of anticipation. We’ve got to anticipate different moves.”

BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Central Florida and Memphis are the usual suspects bandied about as Big 12 expansion targets. The order usually depends on one’s allegiance or geographic locale.

Memphis is straight up trying to buy its way in. The school’s lower academic profile scares some Big 12 administrators. But FedEx chairman Frederick W. Smith promised the shipping company would sponsor a football title game. And Memphis officials promise to spend $500 million in upgrades.

West Virginia officials promised to lengthen a runway and upgrade a nearby airport once the Mountaineers got into the Big 12. That never happened.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Assuming this source is legit, Texas is basically saying that they're leaving after the GOR expires. So if you're the rest of the Big 12, how do you NOT vote for expansion? You just gonna let Texas use you now and leave you in 8 years for a younger woman?

 

[nd73]

IMO more 1 % . They likely say 15 % because they still believe FSU and Clemson could come calling.

 

[jlarson]

Assuming this source is legit, Texas is basically saying that they're leaving after the GOR expires. So if you're the rest of the Big 12, how do you NOT vote for expansion? You just gonna let Texas use you now and leave you in 8 years for a younger woman?

That strategy wouldn't work. Texas would just give them the middle finger and leave and deal whatever financial stuff comes there way as a result.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Texas is giving the league the finger, and it sounds like a couple of the schools want to make it seem like they wanted to stay at 10 if that is how it pans out.

UConn would be better served trying to come up with a realistic path to more revenue than counting on this unicorn walking in the door.

 

[Charley Horse]

As of one of only a couple of Texas fans on this forum, I feel obliged to point out

1. Brian Davis is hardly a respected insider.

2. While Texas has beaucoup influential donors, the "Hell, yes" exclamation just screams Red McCombs.

3. Red McCombs is 89 years old. I'd put the odds of him having any influence over anything that happens in 2024 at much less than 15%.

4. As a fan of Big 12 viability, expansion and UConn candidacy, I must sadly agree that expansion probably is at about 15% right now - but I don't think it's because Texas is planning to leave. I'm getting a sense that some of the other Big 12 schools are backing away from Boren.

 

[junglehusky]

Texas is giving the league the finger, and it sounds like a couple of the schools want to make it seem like they wanted to stay at 10 if that is how it pans out.

UConn would be better served trying to come up with a realistic path to more revenue than counting on this unicorn walking in the door.

There are other unicorns, but this unicorn is currently the most realistic unicorn.

 

[The Funster]

I LUVS ME SOME UNICORNS.

 

[Exit 4]

Huh, I could have sworn the odds were 18%, but fine whatever.

 

[Exit 4]

Seems like maybe the entire Boren expansion push was a means to see if the ACC GOR could nullified.

However, no B12 expansion also means no stability when their current tv deal expires. Guess that gives OU and Kansas a lot of time to shop themselves. The rest of the conference mates are screwed.

 

[Waquoit]

So there IS a chance?

 

[upstater]

How can they back away from Boren? They just have to hope that he changes his mind. If Oklahoma leaves, then Texas is next. Not to mention any school Oklahoma might take with them.

 

[UconnMICK]

Only 15%??? Let's all head back to the ledge...

 

[Section205]

Still better odds than me winning lotto.

 

[dwalks93]

15% chance of Big12 expansion means 85% chance a bunch of Big12 schools will end up in the AAC.

Someday in the not to distant future an AD at a school like TCU is going ask himself "what the hell was I thinking listening to UT and voting NO to expansion." This thought will likely occur as the Hornfrogs are preparing for the big Tulane/TCU match up. When that happens the TCU AD will be able to flip the channel and watch UT and OU play in some other P4 conference.

Being a P5 program is not a guarantee to remain a P5 program. UConn understands this better than anyone. Apparently a few Big12 program are going to need to learn this the hard way. If the Big12 votes NO to expansion several current Big12 programs will forever remember the day they doomed themselves.

Life is hard, life is harder if you are stupid...

 

[djct1999]

15% chance of Big12 expansion means 85% chance a bunch of Big12 schools will end up in the AAC.

Someday in the not to distant future an AD at a school like TCU is going ask himself "what the hell was I thinking listening to UT and voting NO to expansion." This thought will likely occur as the Hornfrogs are preparing for the big Tulane/TCU match up. When that happens the TCU AD will be able to flip the channel and watch UT and OU play in some other P4 conference.

Being a P5 program is not a guarantee to remain a P5 program. UConn understands this better than anyone. Apparently a few Big12 program are going to need to learn this the hard way. If the Big12 votes NO to expansion several current Big12 programs will forever remember the day they doomed themselves.

Life is hard, life is harder if you are stupid...

More than that, Texas will regret this shortsightedness when they play 2nd fiddle in the acc while ou and texas a&am rule that region.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

15% chance of Big12 expansion means 85% chance a bunch of Big12 schools will end up in the AAC.

Someday in the not to distant future an AD at a school like TCU is going ask himself "what the hell was I thinking listening to UT and voting NO to expansion." This thought will likely occur as the Hornfrogs are preparing for the big Tulane/TCU match up. When that happens the TCU AD will be able to flip the channel and watch UT and OU play in some other P4 conference.

Being a P5 program is not a guarantee to remain a P5 program. UConn understands this better than anyone. Apparently a few Big12 program are going to need to learn this the hard way. If the Big12 votes NO to expansion several current Big12 programs will forever remember the day they doomed themselves.

Life is hard, life is harder if you are stupid...

There is no guarantee that ANY of the Big 12 schools get a lifeline when the GOR expires. Why would the Big 10 or ACC add a Texas program that has behaved so selfishly for so long? How will the Big 10 justify adding any programs when they are making $50 million or more per school? At that point, why bother at all?

It is also possible that Texas' long game is to go independent under the umbrella of the LHN, which would explain why they have no interest in giving it up.

Either way, I think this avenue of escape is becoming increasingly unlikely. Regardless, UConn has to come up with a better revenue generation structure or our athletic program is dead. We have been in the same boat for four years, and nothing has been done to fix this problem.

 

[junglehusky]

There is no guarantee that ANY of the Big 12 schools get a lifeline when the GOR expires. Why would the Big 10 or ACC add a Texas program that has behaved so selfishly for so long? How will the Big 10 justify adding any programs when they are making $50 million or more per school? At that point, why bother at all?

Texas in the Big Ten would be different from Texas in the Big12, and all parties would understand this at the outset. Why would the B1G want to go to Texas? If they could be convinced to go in as an equal member, it's probably the top brand name school with all the attributes - market, alumni base, recruiting grounds, overall athletics - anywhere in the country. Brand synergy.

 

[nomar]

I LUVS ME SOME UNICORNS.

 

[Chief00]

Warde was good with coaches and scheduling games. He was not a good financial guy.