USF in the Big Dance

[oldude]

One of USF’s goals this year was to be a top 16 seed in the Big Dance, so the Bulls could host the first two rounds of the tournament at home in Tampa. IMO, there are not 16 WBB teams that are better right now than the USF Bulls.

The Bulls have steadily improved throughout the season, particularly on defense. They are a good rebounding team, and when Kitija Laksa is on, they have a high-volume shooter/scorer that is every bit as talented as Victoria Vivians or Kelsey Mitchell.

In recent weeks USF has a statement win over Big10 champion tOSU, a relatively easy win over a tough UCF team in the AAC semifinals and they have increasingly improved their play against #1 UConn. While never actually being a threat to defeat the Huskies, over three games this season, USF has closed the gap from a 51 pt blowout earlier this season, to a 29 pt loss a week ago, to a 16 pt loss last night.

For the good of the AAC, I would love to see Jose and the Bulls make a deep run in the tournament. Unfortunately, I doubt that the Committee will award a top 16 seed to USF. So once again the Bulls will be on the road. Hopefully, this year USF will advance beyond the 2nd round. One thing I am sure of. Many of the teams that will secure a top 16 seed for the Big Dance want no part of the Bulls, even on their home court.

 

[BostonCanuck]

Playing UConn nine or ten times in the past three years has had its positive effects on the Bulls, as both Jose and Geno stressed last night during post-game comments. And I agree, USF would have to be one of the 16 best teams in the nation right now. The issue with them, though, is that they always seem to have two or three bad losses relatively early in the season, and this year has been no exception. So unfortunately, that will probably keep them from hosting.

 

[Vowelguy]

I looked at USF's resume yesterday. Not strong enough for top 16. They're probably a 6 seed. I could see them in the same bracket with #3 FSU, which would put them just 4 hours away from home.

 

[trisailin]

I looked at USF's resume yesterday. Not strong enough for top 16. They're probably a 6 seed. I could see them in the same bracket with #3 FSU, which would put them just 4 hours away from home.

Funny thing is - you view their "resume" through your own set of "filters" about what constitutes "good win, bad loss", strength of schedule etc. Others have a different bias in their evaluation.

Things without feelings (computer algorithms/formulas) have USF ranked from 14 to 19.
RPI (as limited as it is) has them 14.
Massey has them 19
Sagarin has them 16
AP (feelings again) has them 19.

Those rankings say at worst they are a 5 seed. Two of the rankings say a 4 seed. Most importantly, EVEN the flawed one that "the committee" uses says should be 4 seed.

 

[oldude]

I looked at USF's resume yesterday. Not strong enough for top 16. They're probably a 6 seed. I could see them in the same bracket with #3 FSU, which would put them just 4 hours away from home.

In the likely event that USF does not host, I would love to see them just up the road in Tallahassee. FSU is one of those 16 seeded teams that wants no part of USF.

 

[huskeynut]

As much as I would like to see USF as a 4 seed - wife and I would be online in an instant to get tickets - I believe they will get a 5 seed. USF is a physical team that cannot be taken lightly. Even though Laksa and Jespersen are still their two primary scorers, Radar and Henshaw are adding some firepower from the post position. Very important in tournament time to have more than 2 scorers.

USF's defense has improved all year long. They are aggressive and play with the hands up - just like UConn.

Don't forget, USF routed tOSU. It wasn't even close! Not a team I would like to face in the tournament.

 

[warbler1055]

I found myself rooting for USF!!!

 

[Bronxjeff]

Sorry I started a separate love for USF thread before I saw this one.

I think they will probably get a five seed, but I agree and hope they have earned a four.

 

[HopJim]

As much as I would like to see USF as a 4 seed - wife and I would be online in an instant to get tickets - I believe they will get a 5 seed. USF is a physical team that cannot be taken lightly. Even though Laksa and Jespersen are still their two primary scorers, Radar and Henshaw are adding some firepower from the post position. Very important in tournament time to have more than 2 scorers.

USF's defense has improved all year long. They are aggressive and play with the hands up - just like UConn.

Don't forget, USF routed tOSU. It wasn't even close! Not a team I would like to face in the tournament.[/QUOTE
Viewing resume differently. If any team has 1-2 good defenders and can shut either Laksa or Jespersen down, USF's chances to win go down dramatically. See them as a 18-25 ranked team who could beat or lose to anyone.

 

[oldude]

As much as I would like to see USF as a 4 seed - wife and I would be online in an instant to get tickets - I believe they will get a 5 seed. USF is a physical team that cannot be taken lightly. Even though Laksa and Jespersen are still their two primary scorers, Radar and Henshaw are adding some firepower from the post position. Very important in tournament time to have more than 2 scorers.

USF's defense has improved all year long. They are aggressive and play with the hands up - just like UConn.

Don't forget, USF routed tOSU. It wasn't even close! Not a team I would like to face in the tournament.

Rader has really been a key for USF. I believe she was only eligible after the 1st semester. At first she came off the bench. But since Jose has inserted Rader into the starting lineup, they are a much improved team. Rader gives the Bulls a physical post presence that they haven't really had in a few years. Henshaw will develop in time, but right now she works better as the 6th player off the bench.

 

[oldude]

Agree that Laksa is the key. If she has one of those 5 for 25 shooting nights, USF is done. But last night, even though the game was out of reach, Laksa made some amazing shots in the 4th qtr against UConn's best. If she can score against UConn, she can score against anyone.

 

[huskeynut]

Rader has really been a key for USF. I believe she was only eligible after the 1st semester. At first she came off the bench. But since Jose has inserted Rader into the starting lineup, they are a much improved team. Rader gives the Bulls a physical post presence that they haven't really had in a few years. Henshaw will develop in time, but right now she works better as the 6th player off the bench.

We had a small season ticket package to USF to get courtside seats for the UConn game. First game was in November and Radar was playing against LSU. She nailed a couple of 3 pointers and showed she could bang under the boards. USF won that game.

 

[MSGRET]

I looked at USF's resume yesterday. Not strong enough for top 16. They're probably a 6 seed. I could see them in the same bracket with #3 FSU, which would put them just 4 hours away from home.

USF had a 4 and 4 record against teams going into the tournament according to Charlie Creme, but when you consider all four of those loses are to UConn - 3 (RPI #1) and ND - 1 (RPI #2), it is a lot better than it looks. The committee will look at those loses as a plus for them. The other 3 loses are to the following teams and where they were played. At Oklahoma (RPI #34) 79 - 74. Michigan State (RPI #66) 83 - 73, Neutral site. At Wichita State (RPI #149). The Wichita State game is considered a bad loss. While the wins against the four teams that have been slated to make the tourney are as follows. LSU (RPI #28) 61 - 55, at home. At George Washington (RPI #75) 83 - 78. Dayton (RPI #33) 93 - 87, Neutral site. Ohio State (RPI #6) 84 - 65, at home. USF has a higher RPI than Maryland, who also lost to Michigan State; Texas A&M, who lost to LSU; Georgia, who lost to LSU; Duke who lost to Villanova (RPI #29), Miami (RPI #50), UNC (RPI #115), and Syracuse (RPI #35).

 

[Roger G]

Rader has really been a key for USF. I believe she was only eligible after the 1st semester. At first she came off the bench. But since Jose has inserted Rader into the starting lineup, they are a much improved team. Rader gives the Bulls a physical post presence that they haven't really had in a few years. Henshaw will develop in time, but right now she works better as the 6th player off the bench.

One of the first games Rader played for the Bulls was the first UConn game. She played very well and had some really good stats off the bench. She was their best player that night.

 

[Vowelguy]

Funny thing is - you view their "resume" through your own set of "filters" about what constitutes "good win, bad loss", strength of schedule etc. Others have a different bias in their evaluation.

Things without feelings (computer algorithms/formulas) have USF ranked from 14 to 19.
RPI (as limited as it is) has them 14.
Massey has them 19
Sagarin has them 16
AP (feelings again) has them 19.

Those rankings say at worst they are a 5 seed. Two of the rankings say a 4 seed. Most importantly, EVEN the flawed one that "the committee" uses says should be 4 seed.

Yes, that's my opinion. I assumed that was obvious given that I posted it.

The rankings are not directly relevant since none, except RPI, are used by the committee, and even the RPI is only 1 piece of information. There's little evidence that the final committee rankings correspond closely to the RPI rankings.

From many years of following this, you develop a feel for the committee's preferences, though they do evolve over time. Quality wins and bad losses definitely matter. And looking at the overall body of work of USF against other teams, USF's resume did not seem as impressive as other teams.

There is a high quality win against Ohio St (home). And a decent win vs LSU (home).
There's a terrible loss at Wichita St. Not good loss vs Mich St (neutral), and a borderline-not good loss to Oklahoma.

1 good win and 1 very bad loss does not compare favorably to the other teams I reviewed.

 

[oldude]

On the basis of their “overall body of work” it’s a challenge to make the case for USF to be considered a top 16 team. On the other hand, since the Bulls inexplicable loss to Wich St in late January, they’ve been on a roll, beating everyone in their path, with the exception of 2 losses to the #1 team in the country.

At the same time a number of teams seemingly penciled in as top 16 teams by Charlie Creme and others, have stumbled in the last month or so. While I continue to believe that USF will likely not receive a top 16 seed, surely the committee will consider a team’s recent level of play more so than what happened at the beginning of the season.

 

[Plebe]

I looked at USF's resume yesterday. Not strong enough for top 16. They're probably a 6 seed. I could see them in the same bracket with #3 FSU, which would put them just 4 hours away from home.

I think they are more likely a true 5 seed, but I agree that they'll likely end up bumped down to a 6 and sent to Tallahassee because the committee *loves* geographical matchups.