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Message: [QUOTE="shizzle787, post: 4550993, member: 6581"] Another thing you are forgetting is that some of these bubble teams will win three or four more games. Teams play themselves off the bubble, but they also play themselves in. About half will play themselves in and you have bid-thieves. Take Pitt. They have 21 wins. They will likely win one or two more. Even in a down year for the ACC, a 23-win Pitt is getting in. One thing that you are also not taking into account is the human element on the board (and I type this as I realize that the Iowa State AD is on the committee). The ACC representative is not going to stand for a 17-win Iowa State getting in over a 23-win Clemson. Not going to happen. Anyway: I have 25 teams as pure mathematical locks as of today. I have 9 more teams that will likely play their way in (one or two more wins): Kentucky, USC, Missouri, Texas A&M, USC, Arizona State, Illinois, Pitt, Clemson. That is 34 teams that should be in. They play in the major six leagues, the MW, WCC, and AAC. Let's assume there are three bid thieves among those nine leagues: 34 teams that should be minus six auto bids = 28 at-larges already accounted for. Let's assume one of Charleston or FAU lose in their conference final (and VCU wins the A-10): another bid thief. This gives us eight spots to fight for. [B]The contenders (my bubble-predicted regular season records in second parentheses):[/B] Iowa State (17-11: not on the bubble yet but if they lose all three I think they are out) (17-14) [B]North Carolina (18-11) (20-11)[/B] Oklahoma State (16-13) (17-14) Wake Forest (18-11) (19-12) West Virginia (16-13) (17-14) Texas Tech (16-13) (16-15) Michigan (17-12) (17-14) Iowa (18-11) (19-12) [B]Michigan State (17-11) (19-11) Rutgers (18-11) (20-11)[/B] Wisconsin (16-12) (17-13) [B]Boise State (22-7) (23-8) Utah State (22-7) (24-7)[/B] Nevada (22-7) (24-7) New Mexico (20-9) (22-9) [B]Auburn (19-10) (19-12)[/B] Arkansas (19-10) (19-12) [B]Mississippi State (19-10) (21-10) Charleston (28-3: assuming losing in CAA final) (30-4)[/B] If Iowa State is to make the field, they have to be one of the top eight here; to make the field without a bye, one of the top four. I don't know who will do what, but I will predict a little (only regular season-conference tourneys would take too long). I based my projections on realistic results: you are probably not going to win on the road against the #8 team in the country, etc. The eight teams I highlighted will be the eight teams I think get in. [B]My reasoning:[/B] The MW will get three teams in. SDSU + 2 others. That is two bids. Mississippi State has a favorable schedule. I see them going 2-0 this week to get to 21 wins. Probably win one more in the SEC tournament to get to 22. Don't see a 22-11 SEC team with a win over Marquette being left out. Auburn and Arkansas I have both losing their last two regular season games to good teams, but I think one will win at least one game in the SEC tournament (probably Auburn). If you get to 20 wins in the SEC, you will get in (unless you're Texas A&M who likes to schedule a ton of cupcakes). One more bids. UNC is going to get on a little heater here. I think they beat Duke at home and win a game or two in the ACC tournament. One more bid. Michigan State and Rutgers have favorable schedules and will probably be in even if they lose in their first respective games in the B1G tournament as long as they go 2-0 this week. Two more bids. Finally, Charleston. I think there is a good chance they get to the final of the CAA tournament and lose to Hofstra. Politically, I don't see a 30-4 team from a middle of the pack D-1 league missing the tournament, especially in a year with few mid-majors in the field otherwise. One more bid. My projected last four byes: Michigan State Rutgers Boise State UNC My projected last four in: Utah State Auburn Charleston Mississippi State My projected first four out: Arkansas Utah State Iowa Oklahoma State My projected next four out: Iowa State Michigan New Mexico West Virginia Iowa State will be the fifth team out according to my projections. [/QUOTE]

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