Update on Tough January

[Watchdog]

My original take was we needed to win the first two on the road to go at least 4-2. It seemed possible at the time because Cincy and USF weren't looking very good. Then, when someone brought up predictions for the first 8 games, I posted we could go anywhere from 7-1 to 3-5 and one comment back was anything less than 5-3 is a failure.

I'm always positive but with the trend we're on, how many would bet their pocket change we'll go 5-1 in the next 6 games to get to 5-3?

Right now 3-5 would be a positive as it would mean 3-3 against the following schedule: Tulane (H), WSU (H), @Villanova, @ Houston, Tulsa (H) and Temple (H).

Tulane is 9-5 and 1-1 in the league. Last two games they lost at Memphis by 11 and beat Cincy by 5 at home. Ron Hunter has done it with unheralded freshmen plus transfers from: Georgia; Memphis/Kansas; Houston Baptist/Norfolk State; URI; JUCO and Seton Hall. Somehow he's gotten them to play together and win despite 8 or 10 guys being new to the team.

Charleston was a great experience, as it looked as if everything was coming together for us, but if we don't beat Tulane, and do it without a struggle, 0-8 is a real possibility.

 

[UConnJim]

My original take was we needed to win the first two on the road to go at least 4-2. It seemed possible at the time because Cincy and USF weren't looking very good. Then, when someone brought up predictions for the first 8 games, I posted we could go anywhere from 7-1 to 3-5 and one comment back was anything less than 5-3 is a failure.

I'm always positive but with the trend we're on, how many would bet their pocket change we'll go 5-1 in the next 6 games to get to 5-3?

Right now 3-5 would be a positive as it would mean 3-3 against the following schedule: Tulane (H), WSU (H), @Villanova, @ Houston, Tulsa (H) and Temple (H).

Tulane is 9-5 and 1-1 in the league. Last two games they lost at Memphis by 11 and beat Cincy by 5 at home. Ron Hunter has done it with unheralded freshmen plus transfers from: Georgia; Memphis/Kansas; Houston Baptist/Norfolk State; URI; JUCO and Seton Hall. Somehow he's gotten them to play together and win despite 8 or 10 guys being new to the team.

Charleston was a great experience, as it looked as if everything was coming together for us, but if we don't beat Tulane, and do it without a struggle, 0-8 is a real possibility.

Hunter's roster turned over and he got guys he wanted. We are in year 2 of the Hurley era and we have 4 players (5 including Springs) that are Hurley recruits and 3 are freshmen. You can look at what Hurley has done 2 different ways. You can say he should be commended for keeping Ollie's players around and not chasing them off the team or you can condemn him for turning over the roster too slowly.

When I watch the players and the games, Ollie's players really don't fit with what Hurley wants to do LT. Our starting guards are short and not long. The center is not athletic. The starting 3 is a stationary shooter despite being 6'9". Look at the guys Hurley has brought in: long and athletic.

Honestly, the whole of this team is less than the sum of the parts which frustrates all of us. Hopefully, Hurley can adjust the lineups to make the team play better.

 

[ThabeetDown]

Hunter's roster turned over and he got guys he wanted. We are in year 2 of the Hurley era and we have 4 players (5 including Springs) that are Hurley recruits and 3 are freshmen. You can look at what Hurley has done 2 different ways. You can say he should be commended for keeping Ollie's players around and not chasing them off the team or you can condemn him for turning over the roster too slowly.

When I watch the players and the games, Ollie's players really don't fit with what Hurley wants to do LT. Our starting guards are short and not long. The center is not athletic. The starting 3 is a stationary shooter despite being 6'9". Look at the guys Hurley has brought in: long and athletic.

Vs USF. The 6 non-Hurley players were 29 points, 11/29 from the field

The 4 Hurley players were 31 points, 11/25 from the field

38% vs 44%.

People say you can't blame the players, well stats back it up.

 

[krinklecut]

Vs USF. The 6 non-Hurley players were 29 points, 11/29 from the field

The 4 Hurley players were 31 points, 11/25 from the field

38% vs 44%.

People say you can't blame the players, well stats back it up.

3 of hurleys players are freshmen

 

[UConnStats]

Vs USF. The 6 non-Hurley players were 29 points, 11/29 from the field

The 4 Hurley players were 31 points, 11/25 from the field

38% vs 44%.

People say you can't blame the players, well stats back it up.

Gilbert and Carlton have the 3rd and 2nd lowest +/- on the team. When contrasting that to the expectations for them (both projected top 3), you basically account for the lackluster results this year.

People have been harping on Hurley not being able to run his system or having his guys, but it doesn’t matter who is coaching the team right now. They have no backup ready for substantial minutes at the 1 or 5, and they’re getting far below average production at each of those positions.

Nobody can save Carlton from his -14% 2PT variance from last year but himself. Nobody can force Gilbert out of his rut but himself. I guess the biggest issue was overrating their ability going into the year and not being able to secure competent alternatives. But our options are what they are at PG and C. They either will start to play better, or the team will keep declining.

 

[RipCity]

UConn put way too many of its eggs in Gilbert’s basket the past few years

 

[Dooooooomed]

Vs USF. The 6 non-Hurley players were 29 points, 11/29 from the field

The 4 Hurley players were 31 points, 11/25 from the field

38% vs 44%.

People say you can't blame the players, well stats back it up.

LOL. Should we not expect more from our upperclassmen?

With that said, Hurley needs to quit playing Mr. Nice-Guy and bench said upperclassmen/encourage others that they'd get more playing time elsewhere next season.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Vs USF. The 6 non-Hurley players were 29 points, 11/29 from the field

The 4 Hurley players were 31 points, 11/25 from the field

38% vs 44%.

People say you can't blame the players, well stats back it up.

And here we have the final word that it was Ollie's fault because of a 6 percentage point difference in a game that was in garbage time for almost the whole second half.

Which players are we blaming? Ollie's for being so terrible, or Hurley's for not being more awesome?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

LOL. Should we not expect more from our upperclassmen?

With that said, Hurley needs to quit playing Mr. Nice-Guy and bench said upperclassmen/encourage others that they'd get more playing time elsewhere next season.

How did Bouk do in UConn's biggest win of the season?

 

[superjohn]

UConn put way too many of its eggs in Gilbert’s basket the past few years

That's pretty clear.

 

[Watchdog]

Gilbert and Carlton have the 3rd and 2nd lowest +/- on the team. When contrasting that to the expectations for them (both projected top 3), you basically account for the lackluster results this year.

People have been harping on Hurley not being able to run his system or having his guys, but it doesn’t matter who is coaching the team right now. They have no backup ready for substantial minutes at the 1 or 5, and they’re getting far below average production at each of those positions.

Nobody can save Carlton from his -14% 2PT variance from last year but himself. Nobody can force Gilbert out of his rut but himself. I guess the biggest issue was overrating their ability going into the year and not being able to secure competent alternatives. But our options are what they are at PG and C. They either will start to play better, or the team will keep declining.

I think the fans are schizophrenic about the older guys because we've come to know them and want them to be successful because they're our guys (especially Gilbert because of all he's endured with the injuries). But then, the frustrations overwhelm us when we lose so badly to Cincy and lose in any manner to USF after showing so much potential in Charleston.

 

[Tuna]

Vs USF. The 6 non-Hurley players were 29 points, 11/29 from the field

The 4 Hurley players were 31 points, 11/25 from the field

38% vs 44%.

People say you can't blame the players, well stats back it up.

Variance and sample size are two terms you may want to familiarize yourself with.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Gilbert and Carlton have the 3rd and 2nd lowest +/- on the team. When contrasting that to the expectations for them (both projected top 3), you basically account for the lackluster results this year.

People have been harping on Hurley not being able to run his system or having his guys, but it doesn’t matter who is coaching the team right now. They have no backup ready for substantial minutes at the 1 or 5, and they’re getting far below average production at each of those positions.

Nobody can save Carlton from his -14% 2PT variance from last year but himself. Nobody can force Gilbert out of his rut but himself. I guess the biggest issue was overrating their ability going into the year and not being able to secure competent alternatives. But our options are what they are at PG and C. They either will start to play better, or the team will keep declining.

Disagree that the only one who can save Carlton from his -14% FG% is Carlton. Somebody gave him bad advice when he bulked up for starters. But the offense is not getting him the ball in the same places it was. Watch the clips from last year. I see a guy who was more active and athletic, who jumped better. But I also see a guy who mostly was allowed to play zone on the rim on the defensive end and not chase shooters outside and who was backing people down and getting the ball in a position to use his good back to the basket moves. This year he's being asked to play like a face up power forward, and to defend like a wing. So while Josh absolutely needs to be tougher, better and bring more energy, Hurley definitely needs to use him more appropriately.

 

[UConnStats]

Disagree that the only one who can save Carlton from his -14% FG% is Carlton. Somebody gave him bad advice when he bulked up for starters. But the offense is not getting him the ball in the same places it was. Watch the clips from last year. I see a guy who was more active and athletic, who jumped better. But I also see a guy who mostly was allowed to play zone on the rim on the defensive end and not chase shooters outside and who was backing people down and getting the ball in a position to use his good back to the basket moves. This year he's being asked to play like a face up power forward, and to defend like a wing. So while Josh absolutely needs to be tougher, better and bring more energy, Hurley definitely needs to use him more appropriately.

Agree to disagree. I think there’s plenty of times he’s getting the ball somewhere he has no business getting it, and has turned the ball over more because of it. That being said, his shot chart is close to the same, and he’s not taking any face up shots. He’s just missing way more shots close to the basket. He went through stretches last year when he wasn’t dunking anything either, and still played well at times (especially against bad teams). Maybe he regrets putting on more weight, but he should still be shooting 55%+ from 2. It should be easier for him to establish position down low. Athleticism, skill, and aggressiveness just aren’t there. I hope next year we temper expectations with him and give ourselves better options at the 5.

 

[ThabeetDown]

Variance and sample size are two terms you may want to familiarize yourself with.

Don't belittle me with your snark, first off.

I've watched every game. It's night and day who has the talent to compete at the level we need them to compete at. Bouk and Akok are the two most talented players on the team. Polley can only shoot, that is it. Josh SOMETIMES can score on offense but is terrible on defense. Gilbert is a turnover machine, too small, can't shoot. Vital, god bless him I love him, has to play above his level a lot because of the lack of talent and thus makes mistakes, especially in close games. Do I need to go player by player? How many of the players on the current team would be on the 99, 04, 11 teams? I count two, Bouk and Akok. Who was the last player Ollie recruited that would be on one of those teams? I'm sick and tired of people defending the upperclassman when if you're not talented you better be trying harder than your opponent. and half the time they don't even try.

 

[ThabeetDown]

And here we have the final word that it was Ollie's fault because of a 6 percentage point difference in a game that was in garbage time for almost the whole second half.

Which players are we blaming? Ollie's for being so terrible, or Hurley's for not being more awesome?

Clearly you haven't watched any games this season. It's night and day who has the talent to compete at the level we need the program to be at. And they are both freshmen. So...

 

[HuskyAlum012]

Don't belittle me with your snark, first off.

I've watched every game. It's night and day who has the talent to compete at the level we need them to compete at. Bouk and Akok are the two most talented players on the team. Polley can only shoot, that is it. Josh SOMETIMES can score on offense but is terrible on defense. Gilbert is a turnover machine, too small, can't shoot. Vital, god bless him I love him, has to play above his level a lot because of the lack of talent and thus makes mistakes, especially in close games. Do I need to go player by player? How many of the players on the current team would be on the 99, 04, 11 teams? I count two, Bouk and Akok. Who was the last player Ollie recruited that would be on one of those teams? I'm sick and tired of people defending the upperclassman when if you're not talented you better be trying harder than your opponent. and half the time they don't even try.

Snarky responses is the only thing that gets these dumb posters to sleep at night

 

[imno1]

Many of Josh's shots lately are just thrown towards the basket with no touch or aim. It's a mystery but I don't think it's just because he gained weight. Defensively he is not capable of doing what the staff has required of him. I still think he's got better games in him. Maybe even a little zone d would be effective with the length of JC, AA, and Tyler Phommachanh.

 

[Tuna]

Don't belittle me with your snark, first off.

I've watched every game. It's night and day who has the talent to compete at the level we need them to compete at. Bouk and Akok are the two most talented players on the team. Polley can only shoot, that is it. Josh SOMETIMES can score on offense but is terrible on defense. Gilbert is a turnover machine, too small, can't shoot. Vital, god bless him I love him, has to play above his level a lot because of the lack of talent and thus makes mistakes, especially in close games. Do I need to go player by player? How many of the players on the current team would be on the 99, 04, 11 teams? I count two, Bouk and Akok. Who was the last player Ollie recruited that would be on one of those teams? I'm sick and tired of people defending the upperclassman when if you're not talented you better be trying harder than your opponent. and half the time they don't even try.

A lot of what you are talking about here is subjective. Probably right, but subjective. My problem with your original post is that you were trying to use statistics like it proved something objectively. Sorry, the fact that one group shot 11/25 and the other shot 11/29 like those numbers are close to statistically significant enough to draw a conclusion is silly. To be honest I probably took more offense to the “hurley players vs. KO players” language than I did the misguided use of stats.

To answer your questions, 1. I think AG definitely would have been on the 2011 team and Vital certainly could have to considering that roster. Playing time is another story. 2. About Ollie’s recruits, James Akinjo was rookie of the year in the Big East and will start at Arizona and Emmitt Matthews is starting on a top 25 team now so those two guys probably would have made at least one of those teams?

I guess my real problem with all these types of posts is really only the bashing of AG and to a lesser extent Vital. I think it’s over the top and misguided. Not that yours was so my apologies for being snarky.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Many of Josh's shots lately are just thrown towards the basket with no touch or aim. It's a mystery but I don't think it's just because he gained weight. Defensively he is not capable of doing what the staff has required of him. I still think he's got better games in him. Maybe even a little zone d would be effective with the length of JC, AA, and Tyler Phommachanh.

Agree. And that is what I mean by face up shots. If you watch the video from last year, most of his scoring is put-backs, and back to the basket moves, which he makes at a very high percentage. This year, he's taking short bank shots rather than his back to the basket spin move layups. And he's bricking those bank shots like crazy.

 

[Candyman]

Have to say watching his highlights he was much quicker last year and he wasn't very quick even then. Now he reminds me of Eric Hayward (being sarcastic, sorta)

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Posted this in another thread but relevant to the discussions going on in this thread (re: sample size and assessment of shooting %)


I went back and did a little math 2018-19 vs 2019-20. Not anything we didn’t already know but the drop in 2PT% across the board is startling:


2018-19 vs 2019-20:

Vital - 51.4 vs 41.7
Gilbert - 41.8 vs 30.9
Carlton - 60.7 vs 48.7
Polley - 49.4 vs 38.5

Total- 289/561 (51.5%) vs 124/297 (41.8%)

Oof.

FYI, the underclassmen are currently 107/203 (52.7%)

Hurley recruits are 92/172 (53.5%).

Those are pretty good sample sizes to at least suspect some inherent difference in offensive prowess (inside the 3pt line)

 

[UConnJim]

Agree. And that is what I mean by face up shots. If you watch the video from last year, most of his scoring is put-backs, and back to the basket moves, which he makes at a very high percentage. This year, he's taking short bank shots rather than his back to the basket spin move layups. And he's bricking those bank shots like crazy.

My read on Carlton on offense is that opposing teams know that when he gets the ball down low, he is going to try to score, so the defense collapses on him and he has to take a difficult shot. He rarely looks to pass it back out. He is averaging 8.5 shots per game this year vs 5.5 shots per game in 1 minute more playing time this year. The UConn offense is trying to go to Carlton, but the opposition knows that and defends Carlton. I think he misses Jalen Adams' drives to the hoop.

On defense, I really don't understand why Hurley is asking Carlton to chase out to the 3 point line and leave the paint wide open. He is not quick enough to recover.

Unfortunately, Hurley doesn't have many big choices this year. Hopefully, he can adjust what UConn is doing with Carlton on offense and defense.

 

[UConnJim]

Posted this in another thread but relevant to the discussions going on in this thread (re: sample size and assessment of shooting %)


I went back and did a little math 2018-19 vs 2019-20. Not anything we didn’t already know but the drop in 2PT% across the board is startling:


2018-19 vs 2019-20:

Vital - 51.4 vs 41.7
Gilbert - 41.8 vs 30.9
Carlton - 60.7 vs 48.7
Polley - 49.4 vs 38.5

Total- 289/561 (51.5%) vs 124/297 (41.8%)

Oof.

FYI, the underclassmen are currently 107/203 (52.7%)

Hurley recruits are 92/172 (53.5%).

Those are pretty good sample sizes to at least suspect some inherent difference in offensive prowess (inside the 3pt line)

I think the veterans miss Jalen Adams this year. Adams was able to create his own shot and drive and dish. None of the veterans can do that and Hurley's recruits are still young. With the current starting lineup, you can force the ball down low to Carlton, hope nobody is covering Polley in his stationary position on the floor, have an undersized PG drive to hoop and seldom finish, or have Vital try to create a shot. Not great options.

 

[RipCity]

My read on Carlton on offense is that opposing teams know that when he gets the ball down low, he is going to try to score, so the defense collapses on him and he has to take a difficult shot. He rarely looks to pass it back out. He is averaging 8.5 shots per game this year vs 5.5 shots per game in 1 minute more playing time this year. The UConn offense is trying to go to Carlton, but the opposition knows that and defends Carlton. I think he misses Jalen Adams' drives to the hoop.

On defense, I really don't understand why Hurley is asking Carlton to chase out to the 3 point line and leave the paint wide open. He is not quick enough to recover.

Unfortunately, Hurley doesn't have many big choices this year. Hopefully, he can adjust what UConn is doing with Carlton on offense and defense.

Yeah he really doesn’t look to pass. He’s traveling or shooting when he gets the ball. And he always seems like he’s rushing. I wish he’d just slow down, assess the defense, pass out of a double team or just go at weaker defenders when in an advantageous matchup rather than throwing up spinning or fadeaway hook. He’s trying to out-finesse guys he should be punching holes through. Fewer FGA, higher FG%, and lower turnovers. Less is more. He’s out of control this far