Unbalanced Teams

[visitingcock]

I’m curious about how these teams perform down the stretch. Using Massey’s rankings, these are top ten teams in one category that are much weaker then the other

Offense Dominant:
Team……….Offense rank………..defense rank
Oklahoma……..2………………………233
Iowa……………1……………………….118
Utah…………….3……………………….75
Maryland……….4……………………….52
tOSU………….. 8………………………..53
FSU…………….10……………………….73

Defense Dominant:
Duke……………90……………………….2
Southern Cal……86………………………5
Princeton……….110………………………6
Ole Miss…………65……………………….8
Colorado*…….…45……………. ………..10

Colorado is the only one listed that has an offensive/defense deferential of less than 40 places. Perhaps they don’t belong on this list but the difference is still striking.

 

[SECbbfan24]

Oklahoma……..2………………………233

I knew OU doesn't play much D but dang

 

[UcMiami]

I’m curious about how these teams perform down the stretch. Using Massey’s rankings, these are top ten teams in one category that are much weaker then the other

Offense Dominant:
Team……….Offense rank………..defense rank
Oklahoma……..2………………………233
Iowa……………1……………………….118
Utah…………….3……………………….75
Maryland……….4……………………….52
tOSU………….. 8………………………..53
FSU…………….10……………………….73

Defense Dominant:
Duke……………90……………………….2
Southern Cal……86………………………5
Princeton……….110………………………6
Ole Miss…………65……………………….8
Colorado*…….…45……………. ………..10

Colorado is the only one listed that has an offensive/defense deferential of less than 50 places. Perhaps they don’t belong on this list.

tOSU and Maryland are also in the < 50 differential category at 45 and 48 respectively.
I don't think this is that unusual - high scoring usually equates to a fast offense and lots of possessions for both teams and low scoring usually means slow games with many fewer possessions. A team that averages 80 points a games usually average about 70 points for their opponents so their defense will be considered 'poor' when ranked against all those slow offensive teams that like to keep games closer to 50 points and even if they lose a lot will tend to lose to a team scoring an average around 60.

Only truly dominant teams will end up with both a highly ranked offense and a highly ranked defense, unless their schedule is really unbalanced.

21 teams have had a scoring differential of 30.0 or better in the NCAA era. Uconn has had the 7 top differentials and 12 of the 21. Baylor and LaTech have had three each, and Old Dominion, Long Beach State and TN complete the group.

During the same time, Uconn has had the best offense in 7 years and the best defense in six years. They achieved both in only 3 years 2002, 2015, and 2016.

 

[UcMiami]

As for performance 'down the stretch' ... I trust strong defensive teams more than strong offensive teams come tournament time - offensive is harder to sustain over six games than defense.

 

[undersized]

Wonder how Massey calculates offensive and defensive ratings compared to Her Hoop Stats. There are some significant differences with regards to these outliers.

 

[visitingcock]

Wonder how Massey calculates offensive and defensive ratings compared to Her Hoop Stats. There are some significant differences with regards to these outliers.

I was too lazy to look up the actual numbers in NCAA stats. Massey’s rankings weight the stats somehow.

Example: Massey ranks Iowa’s defense at 118. However the NCAA stats for scoring defense which is 308th!

Oklahoma’s scoring defense 343rd!

NCAA College Women's Basketball DI current team Stats | NCAA.com

 

[visitingcock]

tOSU and Maryland are also in the < 50 differential category at 45 and 48 respectively.
I don't think this is that unusual - high scoring usually equates to a fast offense and lots of possessions for both teams and low scoring usually means slow games with many fewer possessions. A team that averages 80 points a games usually average about 70 points for their opponents so their defense will be considered 'poor' when ranked against all those slow offensive teams that like to keep games closer to 50 points and even if they lose a lot will tend to lose to a team scoring an average around 60.

Only truly dominant teams will end up with both a highly ranked offense and a highly ranked defense, unless their schedule is really unbalanced.

21 teams have had a scoring differential of 30.0 or better in the NCAA era. Uconn has had the 7 top differentials and 12 of the 21. Baylor and LaTech have had three each, and Old Dominion, Long Beach State and TN complete the group.

During the same time, Uconn has had the best offense in 7 years and the best defense in six years. They achieved both in only 3 years 2002, 2015, and 2016.

According to Massey, they are super balanced this year 4th in both categories.

 

[undersized]

I was too lazy to look up the actual numbers in NCAA stats. Massey’s rankings weight the stats somehow.

Example: Massey ranks Iowa’s defense at 118. However the NCAA stats for scoring defense which is 308th!

Oklahoma’s scoring defense 343rd!

NCAA College Women's Basketball DI current team Stats | NCAA.com

Scoring defense is a meaningless stat because it doesn't adjust for pace of play. Points allowed per 100 possessions is better. Her Hoop Stats and Massey both do a version of the latter.

 

[visitingcock]

Scoring defense is a meaningless stat because it doesn't adjust for pace of play. Points allowed per 100 possessions is better. Her Hoop Stats and Massey both do a version of the latter.

Points per game allowed is more meaningful because points per game win games - not points per 100 possessions . Possessions are a variable. Games are not (except overtime). Pace of play can be controlled and manipulated by the better team. 40 minutes cannot.

Another example of over analyzing a stat. Points per game scored and points allowed per game are the fundamentals that win ballgames.

 

[sweetspot]

Points per game allowed is more meaningful because points per game win games - not points per 100 possessions . Possessions are a variable. Games are not (except overtime). Pace of play can be controlled and manipulated by the better team. 40 minutes cannot.

Another example of over analyzing a stat. Points per game scored and points allowed per game are the fundamentals that win ballgames.

This is a really simple-minded way of looking at advanced stats.

Would you rather have a player who scores 20 points per game but their offense averages 1 point per possession when they’re on the court or a player who scores 15 points per game but their slower offense averages 1.2 points per possession?

Virginia men’s basketball didn’t score a lot of PPG when it was whooping up on everybody but that was because it was playing at a snails pace.

 

[visitingcock]

This is a really simple-minded way of looking at advanced stats.

Would you rather have a player who scores 20 points per game but their offense averages 1 point per possession when they’re on the court or a player who scores 15 points per game but their slower offense averages 1.2 points per possession?

Virginia men’s basketball didn’t score a lot of PPG when it was whooping up on everybody but that was because it was playing at a snails pace.

Yes I believe in a more simplified way of looking at stats.

“advanced stats” just complicate what are already “lies, dammed lies and statistics.”

You win games by scoring more and holding your opponents to less .

As a coach, I would probably be interested in “advanced stats” when looking at the role of individuals players while keeping in mind that “advanced stats“ cannot replace what my eyes and brain tell me about a player in “ situational minutes.” Not all possessions are equal. Garbage 4th quarter possessions are not the same as 2st quarter “combat possessions” are not as important as overtime possessions. What about rebounds per possession? Blocks per possession? Etc? Steals? Steals in normal defense possessions vs steals when we are pressing defense possessions analysis?

Per possession just over-complicates the analysis.

The purpose of the game is to score points and stop your opponents from scoring points each game.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Adjusting for pace makes sense.

 

[sweetspot]

Yes I believe in a more simplified way of looking at stats.

“advanced stats” just complicate what are already “lies, dammed lies and statistics.”

You win games by scoring more and holding your opponents to less .

As a coach, I would probably be interested in “advanced stats” when looking at the role of individuals players while keeping in mind that “advanced stats“ cannot replace what my eyes and brain tell me about a player in “ situational minutes.” Not all possessions are equal. Garbage 4th quarter possessions are not the same as 2st quarter “combat possessions” are not as important as overtime possessions. What about rebounds per possession? Blocks per possession? Etc? Steals? Steals in normal defense possessions vs steals when we are pressing defense possessions analysis?

Per possession just over-complicates the analysis.

The purpose of the game is to score points and stop your opponents from scoring points each game.

Just kind of weird to start a thread based on Massey's stats, which heavily account for pace, and then say, "Actually, advanced stats are dumb."

 

[visitingcock]

Just kind of weird to start a thread based on Massey's stats, which heavily account for pace, and then say, "Actually, advanced stats are dumb."

I did it that way because it was easy and I was lazy.

But the point was that five teams have top 10 offense and comparatively poor defense. Five teams have the opposite -under any measure.

 

[shiverz45]

I’m curious about how these teams perform down the stretch. Using Massey’s rankings, these are top ten teams in one category that are much weaker then the other

Offense Dominant:
Team……….Offense rank………..defense rank
Oklahoma……..2………………………233
Iowa……………1……………………….118
Utah…………….3……………………….75
Maryland……….4……………………….52
tOSU………….. 8………………………..53
FSU…………….10……………………….73

Defense Dominant:
Duke……………90……………………….2
Southern Cal……86………………………5
Princeton……….110………………………6
Ole Miss…………65……………………….8
Colorado*…….…45……………. ………..10

Colorado is the only one listed that has an offensive/defense deferential of less than 40 places. Perhaps they don’t belong on this list but the difference is still striking.

I bet SC deferential was high last year but still won the championship.

 

[visitingcock]

I bet SC deferential was high last year but still won the championship.

You are probably right. We only scored about 71 pts per game I don’t know what that would have ranked us in Massey or NCAA stats for last year. Those 71 pts from last year would rank us only about 70th in NCAA points scored for this year.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I bet SC deferential was high last year but still won the championship.

Defense 1
Offense 16

It's been a good while since SC had a bad offense.

 

[JstVisiting]

tOSU and Maryland are also in the < 50 differential category at 45 and 48 respectively.
I don't think this is that unusual - high scoring usually equates to a fast offense and lots of possessions for both teams and low scoring usually means slow games with many fewer possessions. A team that averages 80 points a games usually average about 70 points for their opponents so their defense will be considered 'poor' when ranked against all those slow offensive teams that like to keep games closer to 50 points and even if they lose a lot will tend to lose to a team scoring an average around 60.

Only truly dominant teams will end up with both a highly ranked offense and a highly ranked defense, unless their schedule is really unbalanced.

21 teams have had a scoring differential of 30.0 or better in the NCAA era. Uconn has had the 7 top differentials and 12 of the 21. Baylor and LaTech have had three each, and Old Dominion, Long Beach State and TN complete the group.

During the same time, Uconn has had the best offense in 7 years and the best defense in six years. They achieved both in only 3 years 2002, 2015, and 2016.

I’m sure Massey ratings take pace and possessions into account. No reputable system considers ppg in rating offenses and defensive performance.