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Tonight's game is a classic talented youth vs experience.
UK clearly poses the biggest size match-up we've had to face in the tourney. Although Cauley-Stein (7-0) is out, the Squid is getting some solid contributions the past couple games from Dakari Johnson (7-0) and Marcus Lee (6-9), in addition from Randle (6-9) and Poythress (6-8). Cal clearly won't lack options in the post, but getting Randle into foul trouble and maybe even Pythress can have some impact on the game.
One of the keys to this game will be how this game is called, particularly in the paint. If our bigs get into any kind of foul trouble and UK's guards are able to feed the post effectively, it could be a long night. Now we don't want a game where the refs swallow the whistle and allow the UK bigs knock our guys silly in the post, but we just don't want to see calls in incidental contact. Hopefully the refs will let them play but call any over-the-top contact both offensively and defensively. So far, teams have not been able to cause enough of this type of damage to impact the outcome of the game. History is on our side, where the refs tend to let them play more physically in the championship game but within reason.
The next key is will UK be able to keep UConn from driving into the paint? I don't think they can. But with that said, their size might be able to swallow up our guards once they get in there. I think a key to UConn's success will be to drive it at UK and show balance between making mid-range shots, drawing contact and getting to the lane and hopefully finishing some shots at the rim. I think if we take it to the rim too much and the refs are not calling a close game, we could be in trouble. I haven't found UK a very good half-court defensive team. They sure gave up a great look at the end of the Wisconsin game but got away with a W.
Another key, which might be the one that decides the game in UK's favor, is keeping them off the glass. They win a lot of games on second and third opportunities. They're going to get some, but UConn has to continue to limit them, like they have during the tournament thus far. This is where many are likely giving UK the edge and this game. IMO, they'll need a little more than that, but if they dominate in that area, we're going to need to come up big on the other end of the floor to make up for it.
The key that I think will decide the game in our favor lies with on-the-ball pressure. Based on what I've seen, this is not a strength of UK on either side of the ball. They're guards are big but not pesty or super athletic like we've seen from some of the teams that have given us trouble. Conversely I think that Bazz and Boat will and our perimeter D as a whole should be able to disrupt UK's guards from letting them run their stuff and causing enough turnovers that should offset their advantage in the post...I hope. If that's the case IMO, the game comes down to the following two keys.
Making shots isn't always the key to winning, but when one team is able to exploit the weaknesses of the other and the other team exploit the weaknesses they have, it often comes down to which team knocks down a good share of the makeable shots plus a handful of tough ones. Both teams have shown capable of knocking down big time shots especially winning time ones. UConn is a much better 3 point shooting team, and the more ways a team can score the harder it is to defend them. UK doesn't have many threats from outside. Usually the experienced player(s) come up huge in these types of high pressure games, while the less experience ones can't quite handle these big moments. The reason why both teams are here is because they've excelled in this key area.
Last key is keeping UConn off the line. If UConn can drive it at UK , get reasonable calls, and get to the line often, our Huskies will make them pay. Conversely UK doesn't shoot FTs very well. UConn getting to the line and getting it done there, while UK leaving points at the line might just turn out to be the difference.
As big as UK is, I like our chances of imposing our will on them than the reverse. I like our experience over their youth. I like that we have more players who can knock down Js than they do. I like that our guards have been better at driving the paint than their guards. Cal constantly wants them to drive it at the basket, but I don't think they will have as much success against our half-court D as he would like, while I think our guards will have a solid measure of success against their D. It should be a great game. I know I'm going to be nervous for an entire 40 minutes tonight.
UK clearly poses the biggest size match-up we've had to face in the tourney. Although Cauley-Stein (7-0) is out, the Squid is getting some solid contributions the past couple games from Dakari Johnson (7-0) and Marcus Lee (6-9), in addition from Randle (6-9) and Poythress (6-8). Cal clearly won't lack options in the post, but getting Randle into foul trouble and maybe even Pythress can have some impact on the game.
One of the keys to this game will be how this game is called, particularly in the paint. If our bigs get into any kind of foul trouble and UK's guards are able to feed the post effectively, it could be a long night. Now we don't want a game where the refs swallow the whistle and allow the UK bigs knock our guys silly in the post, but we just don't want to see calls in incidental contact. Hopefully the refs will let them play but call any over-the-top contact both offensively and defensively. So far, teams have not been able to cause enough of this type of damage to impact the outcome of the game. History is on our side, where the refs tend to let them play more physically in the championship game but within reason.
The next key is will UK be able to keep UConn from driving into the paint? I don't think they can. But with that said, their size might be able to swallow up our guards once they get in there. I think a key to UConn's success will be to drive it at UK and show balance between making mid-range shots, drawing contact and getting to the lane and hopefully finishing some shots at the rim. I think if we take it to the rim too much and the refs are not calling a close game, we could be in trouble. I haven't found UK a very good half-court defensive team. They sure gave up a great look at the end of the Wisconsin game but got away with a W.
Another key, which might be the one that decides the game in UK's favor, is keeping them off the glass. They win a lot of games on second and third opportunities. They're going to get some, but UConn has to continue to limit them, like they have during the tournament thus far. This is where many are likely giving UK the edge and this game. IMO, they'll need a little more than that, but if they dominate in that area, we're going to need to come up big on the other end of the floor to make up for it.
The key that I think will decide the game in our favor lies with on-the-ball pressure. Based on what I've seen, this is not a strength of UK on either side of the ball. They're guards are big but not pesty or super athletic like we've seen from some of the teams that have given us trouble. Conversely I think that Bazz and Boat will and our perimeter D as a whole should be able to disrupt UK's guards from letting them run their stuff and causing enough turnovers that should offset their advantage in the post...I hope. If that's the case IMO, the game comes down to the following two keys.
Making shots isn't always the key to winning, but when one team is able to exploit the weaknesses of the other and the other team exploit the weaknesses they have, it often comes down to which team knocks down a good share of the makeable shots plus a handful of tough ones. Both teams have shown capable of knocking down big time shots especially winning time ones. UConn is a much better 3 point shooting team, and the more ways a team can score the harder it is to defend them. UK doesn't have many threats from outside. Usually the experienced player(s) come up huge in these types of high pressure games, while the less experience ones can't quite handle these big moments. The reason why both teams are here is because they've excelled in this key area.
Last key is keeping UConn off the line. If UConn can drive it at UK , get reasonable calls, and get to the line often, our Huskies will make them pay. Conversely UK doesn't shoot FTs very well. UConn getting to the line and getting it done there, while UK leaving points at the line might just turn out to be the difference.
As big as UK is, I like our chances of imposing our will on them than the reverse. I like our experience over their youth. I like that we have more players who can knock down Js than they do. I like that our guards have been better at driving the paint than their guards. Cal constantly wants them to drive it at the basket, but I don't think they will have as much success against our half-court D as he would like, while I think our guards will have a solid measure of success against their D. It should be a great game. I know I'm going to be nervous for an entire 40 minutes tonight.
