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Message: [QUOTE="nelsonmuntz, post: 5185452, member: 833"] It doesn't have to be nefarious to be a glitch in the model. I work with a lot of models in my job, and most of them have implicit guardrails that tend to influence the model's interpretation of new data, i.e. the model's starting point never gets completely removed from the model. I also find that models frequently equally weight data, including outliers. I imagine this is unavoidable with a model based on per possession efficiency, which is fine for measuring offense and defense, but can skew outcomes when looking at the team as a whole. By focusing on efficiency, KenPom has to be leaving the margin uncapped, even if the model is adjusting for quality of opponents. There is no other way to incorporate efficiency with a capped margin because how would the model know which possessions to throw out? [/QUOTE]