UCONN vs Texas A&M analysis | The Boneyard

UCONN vs Texas A&M analysis

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doggydaddy

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Overview – I was so happy that the A&M game was on Sunday, so I didn’t have to base this on last year’s viewing of their team and stats alone. I will do my best to not just rely on a down game by A&M as the basis for my analysis. But there are trends that you can see by looking at the stats and combining that with Sunday’s loss to Purdue.

I was told to expect A&M to press for close to 40 minutes. Well, they certainly didn’t do that against Purdue. I saw a full court press for a few minutes and Purdue had little trouble breaking it. They hardly pressed the rest of the game. I did see a tough on ball defense by A&M. They are quick (outside of Bone) and tenacious. But because of their lack of height in the backcourt, UConn’s guards will be able to pass over them to the wings and into the post.

I like UConn’s post players in this game. While Bone and Gilbert are big and can be tough, UConn’s posts are quicker. A&M will need a big game from their post duo, but I’m not sure that can happen.

The killer for A&M is their shooting. They stuggle from the 3 point line and the foul line. Against a team like UConn, that can be devastating. Their saving grace is their defensive intensity and if UConn can hold on to the ball and make smart passes, they can mitigate this advantage.

Players lost – Uconn – Moore and Dixon. A&M – Adams and Colson.

My “player vs player” analysis is based on my limited but recent review of the A&M game yesterday and what I recall from watching A&M last year.

PG – Doty 5’10” (5.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.1 apg) vs Pratcher 5’7” (7.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 4.7 apg)

Pratcher reminded me of El-Amin from the men’s team several years ago. Short and stocky, but is still quick. She hit a couple of quick 3’s against Purdue, but was 1-8 after that. Nice form and could get hot if left open. Likes to penetrate but at 5’7” it’s tough to get off her shot in traffic. Doty is coming around slowly but certainly is not where she will be later in the season. At this point, Pratcher is playing better.

Advantage A&M

SG – Hartley 5’9” (15.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.0 apg) vs Carter 5’6” (12.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.0 apg)

Carter is a returning starter from last year, but appears to be struggling some with her added responsibilities. She is shooting poorly from the field and really having a tough time on 3’s. Hartley is playing like an AA in my book. Showing great leadership both on and off (in huddles) the court. And yes, she is 3 inches taller and will give Carter all she can handle.

Advantage UConn

SF – Hayes 5’10” (14.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.1 apg) vs White 6’ (12.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.6 apg)

Wow…the battle of the athletes. White is playing like she is on a pogo stick and Hayes is rebounding like a maniac. Hayes is having an all-round terrific season and White is struggling to score. But White’s defense is outstanding. Hayes’ overall game and her quickness advantage will give White trouble. I am really looking forward to this matchup.

Advantage UConn

PF – Faris 5’11” (5.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.0 apg) vs Elonu 6’1” (12.9 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.3 apg)

Another tough matchup for Faris, and she is giving up a couple of inches to a very long player. Faris’s energizer bunny type play will tire Elonu out. But before that happens, Elonu will be tough for Faris to stop.

Even

C – Dolson 6’5” (10.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.7 apg) vs Bone 6’4” (13.4 ppg, 6.9 rpg, .9 apg)

Two big players at different stages in their careers based on time on the court. Bone is still trying to find her game while Dolson is trying to refine hers. Bone struggled with Purdue’s bigs and Dolson is bigger and more skilled than any of them. At this point and time, Dolson is playing better. But look out for Bone in the future once she gets her sea-legs.

Advantage UConn

Bench – Lewis 6’ ( 16.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.1 apg), Stokes 6’3” (4.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, .7 apg), Banks, 5’9” (5.6 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 1.6 apg), Buck (5.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.2 apg) vs Gilbert 6’5” ( 6.0 ppg, 5.1 rpg, .4 apg), Standish 5’8” (2.6 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 1.6 apg), Collins 5’9” (3.1 ppg, 1.3 rpg, .4 apg)

Anytime you have a player like Lewis coming off your bench you have an advantage. But even with that situation, Uconn has the stronger bench. From what I saw from Gilbert, she is on par with what UConn can expect from Stokes/Buck. And Banks will help contain the A&M guards and will give Standish and Collins a lot of trouble should they match up. Total stats off the bench – Uconn – 31.4, 17.3, 5.6. A&M – 11.7, 7.7, 2.4.

Advantage UConn

Coach – Geno Auriemma vs Gary Blair

Coach Blair is one of my favorite coaches. Smart and down to earth. And right there with Geno in quips. Geno is Geno and he has the advantage over everyone.

Advantage UConn

Intangibles – Home court jumps out. A&M struggled at Purdue and as someone else posted, wait until they play in front of 13K+. So, is the fact that A&M lost to Purdue a plus or minus coming in? Hard to say. They certainly will be playing hard. But playing the defending champs? UConn will be sky high as well.

Advantage UConn

Final analysis –

Looking at the matchups, their prior games, and all the intangibles, it’s hard to see UConn losing this game. Of course, A&M can get hot and UConn could go cold. But the odds of both happening are slim. The loss of Adams and her inside/outside game has made a world of difference in how teams defend A&M. And while Colson was not a scorer, you don’t lose 220 assists and not struggle to get the ball to the right place at the right time. And the missing leadership is almost as big a problem. While UConn lost Moore and to a lesser degree, Dixon, they have made up much of the points and rebounds with the new players. A&M has not been able to make up for their losses.

Final prediction - UConn should win this game by double digits, and it could approach a blowout (20+).
 
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Sorry for quoting all of DD's post just for my "+1." I was too eager to be the first to respond!

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You can take care of that with your Edit button, Sb10. I did it for you.

People should be aware that, when you respond to a post, the system will automatically reproduce the entire post as a quote. In composing your response, you can then erase all or part of the quote, leaving only that part, if any, that you want specifically to focus on. -- JS
 

UConnCat

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Great and helpful analysis. A few questions:

Did Purdue play man, zone defense or both?
Did Purdue double Bone/Gilbert with guard defenders?
Did Purdue run backdoor cuts off of A&M's aggressive defense on the wing?
 

HuskyNan

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Coach – Geno Auriamo
New assistant? :p

j/k, doggy, great job as usual. I know it takes a long time to put one of these things together.
 

doggydaddy

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Great and helpful analysis. A few questions:

Did Purdue play man, zone defense or both?
Did Purdue double Bone/Gilbert with guard defenders?
Did Purdue run backdoor cuts off of A&M's aggressive defense on the wing?
I believe they mixed up their defenses.

They did double and I know not as effectively as UConn can.

They ran the baseline a lot and had open jumpers.
 

doggydaddy

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New assistant? :p

j/k, doggy, great job as usual. I know it takes a long time to put one of these things together.
Fixed!!!
 

speedoo

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Great and helpful analysis. A few questions:

Did Purdue play man, zone defense or both?
Did Purdue double Bone/Gilbert with guard defenders?
Did Purdue run backdoor cuts off of A&M's aggressive defense on the wing?
Purdue switched between man and 2-3 zone, and did so effectively, keeping TAMU off balance and helping to slow the game down.
They doubled Bone aggressively and very effectively, totally frustrating her. I don't recall that they doubled Gilbert as much, but they might have because she was ineffective also.
They did not do a lot of back door cutting, but instead the pg Moses did a lot of dribbling up high and used high screens to penetrate and either dish or score.
 

Tonyc

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Great job Doggy. Speedo you nailed it alot of dribbleing by Moss. The announcers mentioned TAM is not a good outside shooting team. These two reasons are why I think UConn could run away with this game. Some how I think Gary will have TAM ready, however I beleive UConns defense takes over ... it could be a long night.

One thing about UConn they are relentless, scrappy, and mentally trust their stuff. Early on this season we saw UConn stumble forward. We witnessed Uconn shoot poorly againest Stanford and win by double digets. That was a huge feat. To be able to overcome poor shooting againest a team as talented as Stanford and find a way to win, and not have poor shooting have an affect on the rest of the game is something you dont see every day.

Lately they have looked to begin to come together. The more I watch UConn this season the more Im beginning to think this team is much better then advertised and are getting better each game. Ive read posts about how well we're shooting from the outside. Well part of that is due to Stef being doubled down, leaving somebody open. Tiffany has found a way to put stats in the book and couple that with Bria and "Machine Gun Mosqueda"s ability to score inside and out and we've got a very good team. I dont think there are two better guards on the same team as Bria and KML.

TAM Baylor and ND will be big tests over the next month or so. They will amplify are weaknesses and let us know what we need to work on. If they get through these games with "W's" the question will be how great is Geno, when losing a player like Maya and being able to come back with a team like this. Geno is a pretty special coach and before its over will go down with Vince Lombardi, John Wooden and some of the other all time greats.
 
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I agree with Doggy and Tony C.........OMG!! Geno has found a nice niche with this team that most teams in the country will not match. Speed, Long and can shoot the lights out........TAM got embarrassed at Purdue and want to make a statement on National TV. The only problem, the is UCONN Country and the bright lights of ESPN and national TV ...Plus 16000 crazy fans.......TAM, this is not the Big 12.......
 
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Great job Doggy.
I feel like I don't need to see the game now, but I will anuway.
 

sTu

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Thanks DD. In addition to a win, I am hoping Doty starts to find her rhythm and groove.
 

UConnCat

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Thanks DD. In addition to a win, I am hoping Doty starts to find her rhythm and groove.

Geno spoke about Doty after practice today:

Auriemma did say Monday that Doty has been in something of an emotional funk lately and he kidded that the bad karma hovering around her is what brought on the bad luck resulting in the concussion.

But she said she's been a different player since returning to practice. She's seeing the floor clearer, making better decisions, playing with more confidence and resolve.

"She's like a quarterback in a huddle now," he said.
 

EricLA

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Purdue also threw in a 1-3-1 zone, which seemed to completely confuse aTm. i recall the announcers mention it late in the game which was one reason aTm was not able to mount a comeback. they kept saying you had to attack the zone with an odd number of guards (on a 1-3-1, attack with 2 guards, and aTm did not do that).

as for the analysis, not much to nit about, but i'd call the 5 comparison even, not an advantage for UCONN. sure Geno keeps saying that Stef is the 2nd best center in the country, but she's a year younger than Bone, and for whatever reason, the guards have not consistently gone in to Stef this year. i do think Stef is a better player, but Bone's numbers have been better as Stef simply has not gotten the ball. after watching the two of them, i do think Stef has better footwork and better hands, but while Stef is deceptively athletic, Bone is the better athlete.

against Stanford, i thought Nneka and Chiney would have an advantage over Stef and Kelly because they are bigger th an Kelly and quicker than Stef. the quickness did not seem to be a factor, much to my surprise. if UCONN gets jump-shot happy, Stef's #'s could be really low and i'd love to see them really try to establish Stef down low and open up the offense for the shooters.
 

doggydaddy

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Purdue also threw in a 1-3-1 zone, which seemed to completely confuse aTm. i recall the announcers mention it late in the game which was one reason aTm was not able to mount a comeback. they kept saying you had to attack the zone with an odd number of guards (on a 1-3-1, attack with 2 guards, and aTm did not do that).

as for the analysis, not much to nit about, but i'd call the 5 comparison even, not an advantage for UCONN. sure Geno keeps saying that Stef is the 2nd best center in the country, but she's a year younger than Bone, and for whatever reason, the guards have not consistently gone in to Stef this year. i do think Stef is a better player, but Bone's numbers have been better as Stef simply has not gotten the ball. after watching the two of them, i do think Stef has better footwork and better hands, but while Stef is deceptively athletic, Bone is the better athlete.

against Stanford, i thought Nneka and Chiney would have an advantage over Stef and Kelly because they are bigger th an Kelly and quicker than Stef. the quickness did not seem to be a factor, much to my surprise. if UCONN gets jump-shot happy, Stef's #'s could be really low and i'd love to see them really try to establish Stef down low and open up the offense for the shooters.
You had to see the game Sunday to see that Bone is not the top recruit player that she was before. It will come in time but right now, Dolson has the edge. Bone's scoring numbers are a litte better, but Stef has a better shooting percentage, better FT percentage, more assists, more blocks, and runs the court better. She also sets better screens. Bone is not as good as Stef and the numbers also prove that out.
 

RadyLady

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Hey DD - thanks for taking the time to research and write this all out. I really appreciate it. I didn't see the TAMU game, so I am really benefitting from your pregame analysis post
 

AboutWeston

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Thanks,DD! I can't be there or watch it, so your analysis serves to make me feel confident that we've got a shot!:)
 

meyers7

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Great job Doggy.
I feel like I don't need to see the game now, but I will anuway.

Yea what the heck, they put it on TV, might as well watch.
 

Tonyc

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I looked at TAMS stats. Pratcher is the only 3 pt threat, so alot of scoring inside the 3 pt line. TAM is shooting poorly from the line so fouling may not be a bad thing either. The newpapers are talking alot about TAMs pressure defense which was terrific last season. I didnt see it effective againest Purdue. Doggy I agree Uconn by double digets and if UConn gets rollin it could be a blowout.
 
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Excellent job! Having been able to watch the game also:p Re CD a,d pg comparison. We are able to throw Bria and even Banks at them which I believe can neutralize any advantage as CD continues to work on physical and playing time recovery! Bench,big potential advantage especially when you add KML as our having 6 starters. Kelly playing against a 6'1" pf will be a physical relief for her.;) Gotta love her intensity,defense,watch out as her offense becomes more of presense, Tiffany has the opportunity to play big in a big time game:) Love to see Stef getting the ball to score,get fouled,or+++ using great hands and passing. Love to see Heather play well. Stokes I cont to believe this kid has great potential which we have seen defensively the kid can block shots! The longer our rotation can be the better we will be. The more we can an inside outside offensive team,the better we will be! Love the DEFENSE
 
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So, we win by say 15?
 
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