doggydaddy
Grampysorus Rex
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
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Overview – I was so happy that the A&M game was on Sunday, so I didn’t have to base this on last year’s viewing of their team and stats alone. I will do my best to not just rely on a down game by A&M as the basis for my analysis. But there are trends that you can see by looking at the stats and combining that with Sunday’s loss to Purdue.
I was told to expect A&M to press for close to 40 minutes. Well, they certainly didn’t do that against Purdue. I saw a full court press for a few minutes and Purdue had little trouble breaking it. They hardly pressed the rest of the game. I did see a tough on ball defense by A&M. They are quick (outside of Bone) and tenacious. But because of their lack of height in the backcourt, UConn’s guards will be able to pass over them to the wings and into the post.
I like UConn’s post players in this game. While Bone and Gilbert are big and can be tough, UConn’s posts are quicker. A&M will need a big game from their post duo, but I’m not sure that can happen.
The killer for A&M is their shooting. They stuggle from the 3 point line and the foul line. Against a team like UConn, that can be devastating. Their saving grace is their defensive intensity and if UConn can hold on to the ball and make smart passes, they can mitigate this advantage.
Players lost – Uconn – Moore and Dixon. A&M – Adams and Colson.
My “player vs player” analysis is based on my limited but recent review of the A&M game yesterday and what I recall from watching A&M last year.
PG – Doty 5’10” (5.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.1 apg) vs Pratcher 5’7” (7.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 4.7 apg)
Pratcher reminded me of El-Amin from the men’s team several years ago. Short and stocky, but is still quick. She hit a couple of quick 3’s against Purdue, but was 1-8 after that. Nice form and could get hot if left open. Likes to penetrate but at 5’7” it’s tough to get off her shot in traffic. Doty is coming around slowly but certainly is not where she will be later in the season. At this point, Pratcher is playing better.
Advantage A&M
SG – Hartley 5’9” (15.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.0 apg) vs Carter 5’6” (12.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.0 apg)
Carter is a returning starter from last year, but appears to be struggling some with her added responsibilities. She is shooting poorly from the field and really having a tough time on 3’s. Hartley is playing like an AA in my book. Showing great leadership both on and off (in huddles) the court. And yes, she is 3 inches taller and will give Carter all she can handle.
Advantage UConn
SF – Hayes 5’10” (14.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.1 apg) vs White 6’ (12.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.6 apg)
Wow…the battle of the athletes. White is playing like she is on a pogo stick and Hayes is rebounding like a maniac. Hayes is having an all-round terrific season and White is struggling to score. But White’s defense is outstanding. Hayes’ overall game and her quickness advantage will give White trouble. I am really looking forward to this matchup.
Advantage UConn
PF – Faris 5’11” (5.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.0 apg) vs Elonu 6’1” (12.9 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.3 apg)
Another tough matchup for Faris, and she is giving up a couple of inches to a very long player. Faris’s energizer bunny type play will tire Elonu out. But before that happens, Elonu will be tough for Faris to stop.
Even
C – Dolson 6’5” (10.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.7 apg) vs Bone 6’4” (13.4 ppg, 6.9 rpg, .9 apg)
Two big players at different stages in their careers based on time on the court. Bone is still trying to find her game while Dolson is trying to refine hers. Bone struggled with Purdue’s bigs and Dolson is bigger and more skilled than any of them. At this point and time, Dolson is playing better. But look out for Bone in the future once she gets her sea-legs.
Advantage UConn
Bench – Lewis 6’ ( 16.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.1 apg), Stokes 6’3” (4.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, .7 apg), Banks, 5’9” (5.6 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 1.6 apg), Buck (5.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.2 apg) vs Gilbert 6’5” ( 6.0 ppg, 5.1 rpg, .4 apg), Standish 5’8” (2.6 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 1.6 apg), Collins 5’9” (3.1 ppg, 1.3 rpg, .4 apg)
Anytime you have a player like Lewis coming off your bench you have an advantage. But even with that situation, Uconn has the stronger bench. From what I saw from Gilbert, she is on par with what UConn can expect from Stokes/Buck. And Banks will help contain the A&M guards and will give Standish and Collins a lot of trouble should they match up. Total stats off the bench – Uconn – 31.4, 17.3, 5.6. A&M – 11.7, 7.7, 2.4.
Advantage UConn
Coach – Geno Auriemma vs Gary Blair
Coach Blair is one of my favorite coaches. Smart and down to earth. And right there with Geno in quips. Geno is Geno and he has the advantage over everyone.
Advantage UConn
Intangibles – Home court jumps out. A&M struggled at Purdue and as someone else posted, wait until they play in front of 13K+. So, is the fact that A&M lost to Purdue a plus or minus coming in? Hard to say. They certainly will be playing hard. But playing the defending champs? UConn will be sky high as well.
Advantage UConn
Final analysis –
Looking at the matchups, their prior games, and all the intangibles, it’s hard to see UConn losing this game. Of course, A&M can get hot and UConn could go cold. But the odds of both happening are slim. The loss of Adams and her inside/outside game has made a world of difference in how teams defend A&M. And while Colson was not a scorer, you don’t lose 220 assists and not struggle to get the ball to the right place at the right time. And the missing leadership is almost as big a problem. While UConn lost Moore and to a lesser degree, Dixon, they have made up much of the points and rebounds with the new players. A&M has not been able to make up for their losses.
Final prediction - UConn should win this game by double digits, and it could approach a blowout (20+).
I was told to expect A&M to press for close to 40 minutes. Well, they certainly didn’t do that against Purdue. I saw a full court press for a few minutes and Purdue had little trouble breaking it. They hardly pressed the rest of the game. I did see a tough on ball defense by A&M. They are quick (outside of Bone) and tenacious. But because of their lack of height in the backcourt, UConn’s guards will be able to pass over them to the wings and into the post.
I like UConn’s post players in this game. While Bone and Gilbert are big and can be tough, UConn’s posts are quicker. A&M will need a big game from their post duo, but I’m not sure that can happen.
The killer for A&M is their shooting. They stuggle from the 3 point line and the foul line. Against a team like UConn, that can be devastating. Their saving grace is their defensive intensity and if UConn can hold on to the ball and make smart passes, they can mitigate this advantage.
Players lost – Uconn – Moore and Dixon. A&M – Adams and Colson.
My “player vs player” analysis is based on my limited but recent review of the A&M game yesterday and what I recall from watching A&M last year.
PG – Doty 5’10” (5.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.1 apg) vs Pratcher 5’7” (7.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 4.7 apg)
Pratcher reminded me of El-Amin from the men’s team several years ago. Short and stocky, but is still quick. She hit a couple of quick 3’s against Purdue, but was 1-8 after that. Nice form and could get hot if left open. Likes to penetrate but at 5’7” it’s tough to get off her shot in traffic. Doty is coming around slowly but certainly is not where she will be later in the season. At this point, Pratcher is playing better.
Advantage A&M
SG – Hartley 5’9” (15.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.0 apg) vs Carter 5’6” (12.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.0 apg)
Carter is a returning starter from last year, but appears to be struggling some with her added responsibilities. She is shooting poorly from the field and really having a tough time on 3’s. Hartley is playing like an AA in my book. Showing great leadership both on and off (in huddles) the court. And yes, she is 3 inches taller and will give Carter all she can handle.
Advantage UConn
SF – Hayes 5’10” (14.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.1 apg) vs White 6’ (12.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.6 apg)
Wow…the battle of the athletes. White is playing like she is on a pogo stick and Hayes is rebounding like a maniac. Hayes is having an all-round terrific season and White is struggling to score. But White’s defense is outstanding. Hayes’ overall game and her quickness advantage will give White trouble. I am really looking forward to this matchup.
Advantage UConn
PF – Faris 5’11” (5.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.0 apg) vs Elonu 6’1” (12.9 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.3 apg)
Another tough matchup for Faris, and she is giving up a couple of inches to a very long player. Faris’s energizer bunny type play will tire Elonu out. But before that happens, Elonu will be tough for Faris to stop.
Even
C – Dolson 6’5” (10.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.7 apg) vs Bone 6’4” (13.4 ppg, 6.9 rpg, .9 apg)
Two big players at different stages in their careers based on time on the court. Bone is still trying to find her game while Dolson is trying to refine hers. Bone struggled with Purdue’s bigs and Dolson is bigger and more skilled than any of them. At this point and time, Dolson is playing better. But look out for Bone in the future once she gets her sea-legs.
Advantage UConn
Bench – Lewis 6’ ( 16.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.1 apg), Stokes 6’3” (4.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, .7 apg), Banks, 5’9” (5.6 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 1.6 apg), Buck (5.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.2 apg) vs Gilbert 6’5” ( 6.0 ppg, 5.1 rpg, .4 apg), Standish 5’8” (2.6 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 1.6 apg), Collins 5’9” (3.1 ppg, 1.3 rpg, .4 apg)
Anytime you have a player like Lewis coming off your bench you have an advantage. But even with that situation, Uconn has the stronger bench. From what I saw from Gilbert, she is on par with what UConn can expect from Stokes/Buck. And Banks will help contain the A&M guards and will give Standish and Collins a lot of trouble should they match up. Total stats off the bench – Uconn – 31.4, 17.3, 5.6. A&M – 11.7, 7.7, 2.4.
Advantage UConn
Coach – Geno Auriemma vs Gary Blair
Coach Blair is one of my favorite coaches. Smart and down to earth. And right there with Geno in quips. Geno is Geno and he has the advantage over everyone.
Advantage UConn
Intangibles – Home court jumps out. A&M struggled at Purdue and as someone else posted, wait until they play in front of 13K+. So, is the fact that A&M lost to Purdue a plus or minus coming in? Hard to say. They certainly will be playing hard. But playing the defending champs? UConn will be sky high as well.
Advantage UConn
Final analysis –
Looking at the matchups, their prior games, and all the intangibles, it’s hard to see UConn losing this game. Of course, A&M can get hot and UConn could go cold. But the odds of both happening are slim. The loss of Adams and her inside/outside game has made a world of difference in how teams defend A&M. And while Colson was not a scorer, you don’t lose 220 assists and not struggle to get the ball to the right place at the right time. And the missing leadership is almost as big a problem. While UConn lost Moore and to a lesser degree, Dixon, they have made up much of the points and rebounds with the new players. A&M has not been able to make up for their losses.
Final prediction - UConn should win this game by double digits, and it could approach a blowout (20+).
Gotta love her intensity,defense,watch out as her offense becomes more of presense, Tiffany has the opportunity to play big in a big time game