UConn vs. SC: Player Availability Compared To Last Year

[JoePgh]

I just finished re-watching last year's game at the XL Center between UConn and South Carolina, which was played on 2/5/2023. It was a very close and near-even game. South Carolina did get a 12-point lead late in the 4th quarter, but UConn closed the margin in the last 2+ minutes, and SC benefited from a missed call on a Gamecock in-bounds play where the ball was handed off, rather than passed, over the sideline.

So if the two teams were more or less equal last year, how do their available rosters then compare to this year's player availability? Here it is:

UConn has lost:

Lou Lopez Senechal
Aubrey Griffin (sigh! -- she scored 17 points in last year's game, including an and-1 at the very end)
Dorka Juhasz
Ayanna Patterson

UConn has gained:

Paige Bueckers
Ice Brady
KK Arnold
Ashlynn Shade

South Carolina has lost:

Aliyah Boston
Zia Cooke
Brea Beal
Victaria Saxton
Kamila Cardoso
Laeticia Amihere

South Carolina has gained:

Milaysia Fulwiley
Chloe Kitts
Te-Hina Paopao
(note that both Watkins and Feagin were on last year's Gamecock roster but did not enter last year's game)

While UConn's losses are considerable, I think South Carolina's are even greater in both quantity and quality. Comparing gains (essentially incoming freshmen for both teams), UConn has more quantity, but SC probably has more average quality in its two freshman stars. But the margin there is not great.

Last year's game fulfilled most people's statistical prophecies. South Carolina dominated in offensive rebounds (25-10) and second chance points (also 25-10), but UConn had a big edge in field goal percentage (52% to 39%). Somewhat surprisingly, UConn had more points in the paint (42-38) and more fast break points (12-5).

This all suggests to me that Sunday's game will also be close, and may come down to big plays (or big calls) at the end of the game.

So I would expect Sunday's game to be essentially even in personnel

 

[Cuango]

I just finished re-watching last year's game at the XL Center between UConn and South Carolina, which was played on 2/5/2023. It was a very close and near-even game. South Carolina did get a 12-point lead late in the 4th quarter, but UConn closed the margin in the last 2+ minutes, and SC benefited from a missed call on a Gamecock in-bounds play where the ball was handed off, rather than passed, over the sideline.

So if the two teams were more or less equal last year, how do their available rosters then compare to this year's player availability? Here it is:

UConn has lost:

Lou Lopez Senechal
Aubrey Griffin (sigh! -- she scored 17 points in last year's game, including an and-1 at the very end)
Dorka Juhasz
Ayanna Patterson

UConn has gained:

Paige Bueckers
Ice Brady
KK Arnold
Ashlynn Shade

South Carolina has lost:

Aliyah Boston
Zia Cooke
Brea Beal
Victaria Saxton
Kamila Cardoso
Laeticia Amihere

South Carolina has gained:

Milaysia Fulwiley
Chloe Kitts
Te-Hina Paopao
(note that both Watkins and Feagin were on last year's Gamecock roster but did not enter last year's game)

While UConn's losses are considerable, I think South Carolina's are even greater in both quantity and quality. Comparing gains (essentially incoming freshmen for both teams), UConn has more quantity, but SC probably has more average quality in its two freshman stars. But the margin there is not great.

Last year's game fulfilled most people's statistical prophecies. South Carolina dominated in offensive rebounds (25-10) and second chance points (also 25-10), but UConn had a big edge in field goal percentage (52% to 39%). Somewhat surprisingly, UConn had more points in the paint (42-38) and more fast break points (12-5).

This all suggests to me that Sunday's game will also be close, and may come down to big plays (or big calls) at the end of the game.

So I would expect Sunday's game to be essentially even in personnel

It’s difficult for me to understand your statement that you expect “Sunday’s game to be essentially even in personnel”? Notwithstanding your detailing of the relative gains and losses of the two respective teams, the real comparison of the two teams is in who they can put on the floor during Sunday’s game.
UConn has three seniors, Paige, a star, Aaliyah, a star, and Nika, a solid player who rarely scores more than 12 points. We also have two quite good freshmen and two struggling freshmen. That is essentially our team! We do have two bench players who basically do not contribute at all!
It is very likely that barring foul trouble, we will play our starting five the entire game except for a few breathers from our two bench players.
SC, on the other hand has eight players that will likely play at least 8-12 minutes. Of those, six range from 6’-6’5”, their guards shoot, 48.5, 45.6, 38.1, 42.1,and 32.1% from three! Two of their big girls shoot 33.3 & 50% from three as well. Their lowest % (32.1) guard will be the best freshman on the floor. Their starting guards are senior and redshirt sophomore, one of which is the top three point shooter in the nation!
I suppose your loss/gain list is accurate but imo it has little to do with which team is advantaged/disadvantaged in this game. As I see it, SC has the advantage in numbers, size, home court, and experience! I will concede that one to one, Paige and Aaliyah are likely the two best players on the court. I will also concede that UConn could win this game. However, all the advantages except for Paige and (to a slightly lesser degree) Aaliyah, lie with South Carolina! I might add that the Paige/Aaliyah advantages are likely canceled out by the size and numbers advantage enjoyed by SC. It’s clearly to be decided on the floor, we could win, but a lot of things have to go our way!

 

[Bone Dog]

This is an intriguing way of thinking about a game, though it’s a “fan’s eye view” of things. Players and coaches don’t think about differences from the previous year’s team. But it’s still worth it for us to think about. I’d add the “puzzle piece” element.

Dawn had put together a juggernaut last year, the culmination of a 4 year run with essentially the same core group, the freshies. Raven and Kamila were additions and Henny a subtraction from this core group. This was one of Dawn’s most impressive achievements in team building. To complete the image, she’d put the puzzle together.

Geno had put together what could have been the primary competition to Dawn’s magnificent team. And then it was dismantled by injuries and Geno had to reshuffle his puzzle pieces for the second year in a row to produce a competitive team. That game was probably their high point after the injuries hit. Every UConn fan wonders what could have been with more than one perimeter threat. But Geno and his players didn’t waste time on such things. They just played their hearts out and came within a technical foul and a missed call from a shot at an upset.

This year, Dawn has done it again. This group may be even better than last year’s but for the experience playing together for 4 years. And she’s added the perimeter threat the freshies lacked. They’ll miss Kamila for this game and this will make a difference. But their frontcourt is deep and talented, and backcourt is better (in my view) than it’s ever been. Dawn has put the puzzle together again.

For the third year in a row, Geno put together the main competition to Dawn’s team and then lost it to injuries, and the losses are even more extensive than ever. He’s had to put the remaining pieces together into a different puzzle and has managed to build a unit around a pair of superstars. But the bench is painfully thin, the frontcourt is too small, and the freshmen are asked to do too much.

Once again, the players won’t think about the pieces they’ve lost. Only the fans do that. They’ll just play their hearts out again. If enough of Geno’s freshmen can play to their potential the game will be competitive. If all of them can have season’s best games an upset is even possible. By contrast, Dawn’s core group doesn’t have to play above their heads to win. They merely have to do what they’ve already shown they can do on a regular basis.

 

[JoePgh]

On further review, I realize that I failed to include Qadence Samuels in the list of UConn's gains. I hope she's mad about that and proceeds to score 20 in tomorrow's game in an effort to make us say, "Aubrey who?"

 

[Centerstream]

As can happen in any game, the way the game is officiated may make a difference. Seeing that the game is the prelude to some football game, and is on ESPN, I would expect to see the infamous Dee Kantner and/or Joe Vaszily blowing the whistle(s). They both seem to like the bright lights so all bets are off if one or both are on the court. IMO.

 

[hoophuskee]

It’s difficult for me to understand your statement that you expect “Sunday’s game to be essentially even in personnel”? Notwithstanding your detailing of the relative gains and losses of the two respective teams, the real comparison of the two teams is in who they can put on the floor during Sunday’s game.
UConn has three seniors, Paige, a star, Aaliyah, a star, and Nika, a solid player who rarely scores more than 12 points. We also have two quite good freshmen and two struggling freshmen. That is essentially our team! We do have two bench players who basically do not contribute at all!
It is very likely that barring foul trouble, we will play our starting five the entire game except for a few breathers from our two bench players.
SC, on the other hand has eight players that will likely play at least 8-12 minutes. Of those, six range from 6’-6’5”, their guards shoot, 48.5, 45.6, 38.1, 42.1,and 32.1% from three! Two of their big girls shoot 33.3 & 50% from three as well. Their lowest % (32.1) guard will be the best freshman on the floor. Their starting guards are senior and redshirt sophomore, one of which is the top three point shooter in the nation!
I suppose your loss/gain list is accurate but imo it has little to do with which team is advantaged/disadvantaged in this game. As I see it, SC has the advantage in numbers, size, home court, and experience! I will concede that one to one, Paige and Aaliyah are likely the two best players on the court. I will also concede that UConn could win this game. However, all the advantages except for Paige and (to a slightly lesser degree) Aaliyah, lie with South Carolina! I might add that the Paige/Aaliyah advantages are likely canceled out by the size and numbers advantage enjoyed by SC. It’s clearly to be decided on the floor, we could win, but a lot of things have to go our way!

A potential positive is that they lose Cardoso, their 3pt shooting could suffer because UCONN would still have to sag but maybe not as much and/or overall SC's Offense and rebounding suffer enough that impacts their shooting.

And as you point out, I wonder about Paige's current health.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

As can happen in any game, the way the game is officiated may make a difference. Seeing that the game is the prelude to some football game, and is on ESPN, I would expect to see the infamous Dee Kantner and/or Joe Vaszily blowing the whistle(s). They both seem to like the bright lights so all bets are off if one or both are on the court. IMO.

Love her or hate her, Dee is a decisive referee and not wishy washy like many in WBB.

 

[AmeriConn]

Put our PowPow (Nika) on Paopao (Te-Hina)

 

[BB Dawg]

A potential positive is that they lose Cardoso, their 3pt shooting could suffer because UCONN would still have to sag but maybe not as much and/or overall SC's Offense and rebounding suffer enough that impacts their shooting.

And as you point out, I wonder about Paige's current health.

FYI, Cardoza looked great against a pro Auzzie team the other night

 

[hoophuskee]

FYI, Cardoza looked great against a pro Auzzie team the other night

So, she is playing?

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

So, she is playing?

In an Olympic qualification game.