UConn vs Arizona - Match-up and comments

[cferraro04]

Arizona is technically down to a 7 man rotation now. They start Aari McDonald (5'6"), Trinity Baptiste (6'0"), Sam Thomas (6'0"), Cate Reese (6'2") and Yeaney Bendu (5'10"). They like to bring Helena Pueyo (approx 20 minutes) and Shaina Pellington (approx 16 minutes) off the bench. UConn goes a little deeper (8 players) in that they will start Paige Bueckers 5'11"), Christyn Williams (5'11"), Olivia Nelson-Ododa (6'5"), Evina Westbrook (6'0") and either Nika Muhl (5'10") or Aaliyah Edwards (6'3"). UConn will bring Anna Mukurat, 6'2" (10-12 minutes), Aubrey Griffin, 6'1" (15-25 minutes) and either Aaliyah Edwards (25 minutes) or Nika Muhl (15 minutes) off the bench depending on who starts.

It should be pointed out that Arizona's advantages are their size and their style of play...they disrupt and get steals and they get out and run. The problem for them is will they be able to play their game against the Huskies. My opinion is they will not as UConn with the exception of the speed demon Aari McDonald, will match their speed. Match-ups will favor UConn as UConn is overall more talented both individually and as a team.

Arizona

Starters:
Aari McDonald - 20.3 points; 5.4 rebounds; 4.3 assists; 2.7 steals
Trinity Baptista - 8.7 points; 6.2 rebounds; 1.0 assists; 1.0 steals
Sam Thomas - 7.4 points; 3.2 rebounds; 1.6 assists; 2.4 steals
Yeaney Bendu - 4.0 points; 3.1 rebounds; 1.4 assists; 1.0 steals
Cate Reese - 11.2 points; 5.4 rebounds; .6 assists; 1.0 steals

Bench:
Helena Pueyo - 3.8 points; 3.4 rebounds; 1.3 assists; 1.6 steals
Shaina Pellington - 5.6 points; 1.7 rebounds; .9 assists; .6 steals


UConn

Starters:
Paige Bueckers - 20.1 points; 4.8 rebounds; 5.9 assists; 2.3 steals
Christyn Williams - 16.1 points; 4.3 rebounds; 2.3 assists; .9 steals
Olivia Nelson-Ododa - 12.4 points; 7.9 rebounds; 3.0 assists; .6 steals
Aaliyah Edwards - 10.8 points; 5.6 rebounds; .9 assists; 1.0 steals
Evina Westbrook - 9.4 points; 5.3 rebounds; 4.3 assists; .7 steals

Bench:
Aubrey Griffin - 6.5 points; 4.9 rebounds; .9 assists; 1.2 steals
Nika Muhl - 5.0 points; 2.4 rebounds; 2.8 assists; 1.8 steals
Anna Mukurat - 3.9 points; 3.5 rebounds; 2.5 assists; 1.0 steals


Christyn Williams (5'11") vs Aari McDonald (5'6") - Aari is the best that Arizona has...she will find Christyn Williams to be quite formidable on defense. If Aari is successful in getting by Christyn she will be met Olivia and Aaliyah in the paint. If Niki Muhl gets the start and finds herself on Aari...it will be a similar situation for Aari. Either way...I will give this match-up a SLIGHT EDGE TO ARIZONA.

Paige Bueckers (5'11") vs Yeaney Bendu 5'10" - This is a guard match-up that matches the first time ever freshman "Player of the Year" Bueckers against a player who will have her hands full. ADVANTAGE UCONN.

Olivia Nelson-Ododa (6'5") vs Cate Reese (6'2") - Cate will be giving up 3 inches to Olivia. I would expect that Olivia will have a good game given the height advantage in the middle. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Evina Westbrook (6'0") vs Sam Thomas (6'0") - Sam is Arizona's best defensive player but she will have her hands full with Evina who has been fairly consistent and plays good all around game often flirting with a double / double or even a triple double. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Aaliyah Edwards (6'3") vs Trinity Baptiste (6'0") - Aaliyah has a considerable size advantage and should be able to have her way in the paint. ADVANTAGE UCONN.

BENCH: ADVANTAGE UCONN
COACHING: ADVANTAGE UCONN

SCORE:

UConn - 90
Arizona - 59

 

[DefenseBB]

Massey has it 68-57 and 85% probability. Betting line started at -13.5 but suspect it will grow to -15

I just don't think Arizona will let this turn into a track meet, they will work the possessions to eat clock and keep the score under 70 as Massey predicts. Think about this, at the end of 1st quarter Monday, the score was 26-24 and then the two teams only scored 43 points the rest of the 30 minutes to finish at 69-67. Predicting a 31 point blowout is not likely at all.

 

[jazz]

I wish we had a better opponent before the title game....we win easily but could lose a bit of edge/focus in the early part of the title game. I always prefer to play the best teams even if that means we have the tougher road. Then we know we are battle tested.

 

[UConnCat]

According to McDonald, she will guard Paige.

 

[eebmg]

 

[Nolefan]

I wish we had a better opponent before the title game....we win easily but could lose a bit of edge/focus in the early part of the title game. I always prefer to play the best teams even if that means we have the tougher road. Then we know we are battle tested.

After Paige got mugged the entire Baylor game I’m sure she is battle tested heck she might be ready for mma now

 

[jazz]

PB just opened up a can of whoop-*** on the arguably the best defensive team and defensive player in the country. She aint gonna lose any sleep on Arizona.

 

[PacoSwede]

nika has a high ankle sprain and thus don't count on her (sigh)

 

[jazz]

After Paige got mugged the entire Baylor game I’m sure she is battle tested heck she might be ready for mma now

you got me laughing so hard i can barely type this response. you crack me up Nolefan....PB is gonna need a damn helmet if Baylor is lucky enough to play us next year!

 

[chrissaran]

cferraro04, Nika is not starting. If she plays, her minutes will be limited. She hasn't played since March 21st. Aaliyah will start Friday night, and hopefully Sunday night. jazz, don't underestimate Arizona. People have been underestimating UCLA on the men's side.

 

[Topsail]

If McDonald is hot then this will be a close game. If she shoots( 8/24. 0/6 ) like she did when she last played Stanford then we win by double digits.

 

[heavyhusky]

I like the analysis, but I don't know if ONO will be on Reese as she likes to hang on the perimeter and is their best 3 pt shooter. Also, is Ware (6' 5") injured? With all our height I would think she will get a fair amount of playing time. She averaged 16 mpg during the season.

 

[DefenseBB]

As Mike Tyson so famously said before his Evander Holyfield fight, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth"....good for you Aari, good for you-see you Friday at 9:30

 

[cferraro04]

I like the analysis, but I don't know if ONO will be on Reese as she likes to hang on the perimeter and is their best 3 pt shooter. Also, is Ware (6' 5") injured? With all our height I would think she will get a fair amount of playing time. She averaged 16 mpg during the season.

While it is true that Ware averaged 16 minutes in the regular season...so far in the NCAAs she had 5 points / 4 rebounds in 16 minutes of play against Stoney Brook; Zero points and 1 rebound in 13 minutes against Bringham Young; 1 point and 1 rebound in 7 minutes against Texas A & M; Zero points and Zero Rebounds in 6 minutes against Indiana.

As the Tournament has advanced she has been getting less minutes and has consequently become more and more less impactful until against Indiana she had virtually no impact on the game. Given that she would be playing an elite player like Olivia Nelson-Ododa I would guess that her coach would not have much confidence in her ability to play off of Olivia even given her size advantage over Reese. I think Reese will get the nod given her proven track record.

 

[cferraro04]

According to McDonald, she will guard Paige.

While it may be true that Aari guards Paige...it doesn't necessarily follow that Geno will approve of that match-up going the other way. I think Christyn gets the assignment to guard Aari.

 

[my2cents]

McDonald will not have a happy meal guarding Paige. Paige will fry her off picks. The energy trying to guard her will only hurt her offense, where Arizona needs her more.
We should pound it inside for a Quarter , call it the Quarter Pounder strategy, and see how that works out.

 

[Zinethar]

Wow Paige could post her up any time she wants.

 

[cbraarj]

Olivia up top with 3 shooters outside and a 5" difference for Paige. Post her up early and often.

 

[FridaFriend]

When UCONN plays Arizona, they will have played teams with the other four Nancy Lieberman award finalists in succession: Mangakahia (Syracuse), Clark (Iowa), Richards (Baylor), McDonald (Arizona).

 

[cbraarj]

When UCONN plays Arizona, they will have played teams with the other four Nancy Lieberman award finalists in succession: Mangakahia (Syracuse), Clark (Iowa), Richards (Baylor), McDonald (Arizona).

Let's see if Paige wins the Staley award. Moriah should have won the inaugural one!

 

[Gurleyman]

If they want to put McDonald on Paige, I’d just run her off screens all day - that little elbow jumper off the catch is something McDonald won’t be able to contest if she’s trailing. But more importantly it would force her to use a lot of energy. I wouldn’t have Paige try to create much off the dribble, since that gets into Aari’s wheelhouse, but if she keeps cutting and coming off screens and looks to shoot or pass right off the catch, it‘ll be refreshing to not see DiDi‘s wingspan in the way.

My guess is that UA will put someone else on Paige though.

 

[Charliebball]

I wish we had a better opponent before the title game....we win easily but could lose a bit of edge/focus in the early part of the title game. I always prefer to play the best teams even if that means we have the tougher road. Then we know we are battle tested.

don't count your chickens............bad mojo

 

[Eagle4]

Don't sleep on Arizona. They will compete and play hard. They are a very good defensive team and it will be important to handle their press. Also, McDonald is the real deal. She will get hers and she gets other involved creating easy open looks for her teammates off of her penetration. Geno said in his presser today that she will be the best point guard they have played all season. Jamelle E. said "we are playing against Allen Iverson"!! They key in this game is to get up early and not give Az. hope. The longer they stay in the game, the tougher it is going to be.

 

[cferraro04]

When it comes to McDonald...I have visions of Mississippi State's devastating win over UConn to break their 111 game winning streak in the second semi-final of the 2017 Women's Final Four, in Dallas Texas...March 31, 2017. I will never forget Mo Williams...having the game of her life and her hitting the game winning shot in what was probably the greatest upset in women's college basketball history. Is McDonald poised to be the reincarnation of Mo Williams? Or, does this fall under the ole' sayin' of "that was then and this is now"?

It is for that reason that you can never sleep on anybody. This is a very different team than the 2017 version of the Huskies, however, words of caution are not lost on me. Let's just hope that the coaching staff has them prepared to have a "take no prisoners" attitude and that they are in the right mindset and are wholly focused on this game and not looking forward to the championship game. So, far...I haven't seen anything that would lead me to conclude anything other than they are on a mission, they are inexperienced and young enough to not know what they don't know. That could work in their favor. We are in the final four baby...there are 343 Division I basketball teams who will be watching the final four from home. We are in it to win it!!! Go Huskies!!!

 

[Zorro]

I just watched the IU UA game on the tube. Almost every shot McDaniel took was uncontested. I don't think she will get those open looks against CW or AG orNM. Anyway it seems thatshe is a pretty normal shooter who just happened to way outshoot her acerage for a couple of games. Not t worry.