UConn/Temple line movement

[whaler11]

If you don't like gambling talk just hit the back button.

So gamblers are nothing if not stubborn.

The line in the BYU game went from 17/17.5 to close at 15.

The line in the Boise game went from 17 to close at 15.

The line in the USF game went from 3/3.5 to close at 1.5/2.

The line for the Temple game has gone from 6 to 4.5/5.

Now at the end of last year you may remember that the lines in the Rutgers and Memphis games went sharply in UConn's direction. Rutgers went from 7 to 3 and Memphis went from 3/2.5 to a pick.

As someone who understands that line movement is highly instructive especially when it's counterintuitive - I still can't comprehend that enough people could back UConn in this spot to move the line down.

It almost feels like there are two potential outcomes to me. Either UConn finds a way to beat Temple or Temple just bombs them in a emotional let down.

It has certainly felt like Temple has always given UConn fits. If it was because they had CT players UConn didn't take or somehow they still had a chip on their shoulders by somehow convincing themselves that UConn joining the Big East was why they were jettisoned...

But the game two years ago, the half a toe out of bounds game, the Todman fumble in 2010... as someone who has watched this series the numbers make no sense to me.

 

[TheJerk]

First off, its disgusting to have Temple favored in our stadium. Who would have ever thought we would sink this low. Secondly, my guess with the line movement down has to do with UCONN being (theoretically) a decent home team. If Vegas starts the line high it gets people into the game then move it down to a more reasonable number. In all instances you listed above, other than the real gambling degenerates of the world who would be betting on a UCONN vs Memphis game if you lived in Arkansas?

 

[Srqhusky]

I would stay far away.

 

[whaler11]

First off, its disgusting to have Temple favored in our stadium. Who would have ever thought we would sink this low. Secondly, my guess with the line movement down has to do with UCONN being (theoretically) a decent home team. If Vegas starts the line high it gets people into the game then move it down to a more reasonable number. In all instances you listed above, other than the real gambling degenerates of the world who would be betting on a UCONN vs Memphis game if you lived in Arkansas?

Well you bet on games where you think you have an edge and it's much easier to have an edge on Memphis/UConn than say Alabama/Tennessee.

Generally the openers are just based off power rankings and low limit money guides where they allow larger bets.

It's just interesting that even though UConn is 0-4 ATS they still have suppport. If the line contines to move towards three I'd be shocked. I just can't see any value in the points - either take plus money to win or lay the points.

 

[TheJerk]

was there a line against stony brook U?

 

[whaler11]

was there a line against stony brook U?

Yeah the FBS/FCS lines show up an hour or two prior to kick. I was coaching a youth soccer game so I don't know if it moved but was 16.5 at open.

 

[whaler11]

I would stay far away.

I would too if I didn't need something to think about while I sat through it.

 

[Dooley]

As I said in another thread, I am staying FAR away from all UCONN games until we get a better read on the coaching staff. It's easier to wager on something that you know how both teams are going to play as a game they are trying to win. It's quite another to wager on a game that we might go into full practice scrimmage mode because it's raining or we gave up a first quarter sack. This staff is far too unpredictable to rule out a complete shift in in-game strategy, thus making UCONN games the most difficult to try and forecast.

Stay away until 2015, at the earliest.

 

[Pudge]

You put out the Gambler disclaimer. Then adroitly exhibited what you're gambling proclivities push you towards. So ... I think ALL your posts should begin with the Disclaimer that your gambling creates a mindset that most if the rest of us will never experience.

And I never have bought a lottery ticket ... But LOVE the track.

 

[whaler11]

You put out the Gambler disclaimer. Then adroitly exhibited what you're gambling proclivities push you towards. So ... I think ALL your posts should begin with the Disclaimer that your gambling creates a mindset that most if the rest of us will never experience.

And I never have bought a lottery ticket ... But LOVE the track.

I don't think you are right and I don't think it would make any difference anyway.

 

[Waquoit]

It's just interesting that even though UConn is 0-4 ATS they still have suppport. If the line contines to move towards three I'd be shocked. I just can't see any value in the points - either take plus money to win or lay the points.

Didn't UConn open +3.5? What did they close?

 

[ZooCougar]

If you don't like gambling talk just hit the back button.

So gamblers are nothing if not stubborn.

The line in the BYU game went from 17/17.5 to close at 15.

The line in the Boise game went from 17 to close at 15.

The line in the USF game went from 3/3.5 to close at 1.5/2.

The line for the Temple game has gone from 6 to 4.5/5.

Now at the end of last year you may remember that the lines in the Rutgers and Memphis games went sharply in UConn's direction. Rutgers went from 7 to 3 and Memphis went from 3/2.5 to a pick.

As someone who understands that line movement is highly instructive especially when it's counterintuitive - I still can't comprehend that enough people could back UConn in this spot to move the line down.

It almost feels like there are two potential outcomes to me. Either UConn finds a way to beat Temple or Temple just bombs them in a emotional let down.

It has certainly felt like Temple has always given UConn fits. If it was because they had CT players UConn didn't take or somehow they still had a chip on their shoulders by somehow convincing themselves that UConn joining the Big East was why they were jettisoned...

But the game two years ago, the half a toe out of bounds game, the Todman fumble in 2010... as someone who has watched this series the numbers make no sense to me.

Foolish me. I thought this thread was going to be a discussion on the matchups between Temple's DL and our OL. I should have taken note of who started the thread.

I think that your gambling habit makes you look at these things more rationally.

 

[whaler11]

Didn't UConn open +3.5? What did they close?

1.5/2