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Message: [QUOTE="oldhusky, post: 5010161, member: 9844"] One reason it is so difficult to project who starts, or even who is in the rotation for the perimeter positions is how many proven candidates if healthy we have. Some point to KK and Ash being incumbent starters, but Azzi and Caroline were also incumbent starters who lost that starting position mostly due to injuries. In fact their freshmen numbers for overall performance (PER) were better than KK and Ash. Kaitlin obviously was a starter and star for Princeton with very good numbers, and of course Paige who may have been a 4 last year but should be at one of the perimeter positions this year. So in essence we have 6 players who were starters already, competing for 3 positions at 1-3, none of whom lost their spot due to play, but rather by injuries (Azzi, Caroline) or by being moved upfront (Paige), or was a starter and star at another program (Chen). But it is more than that, because there are three other serious contenders in Allie, Morgan and Q. Allie and Morgan are high enough rated that it wouldn't be a shock at all if either was as good in their first year as any of the above players except for Paige and a healthy Azzi. Q probably outperformed her expectations and she is certainly in the mix too. Now when we look at the 4 and 5 it is completely different. No proven returning players much less starters when the season begins. Aubrey is proven and excellent when she returns, but she won't be ready at the start, and I could even include her, and Sarah for that matter as candidates for the 3, but given the roster imbalance expect both to be used mostly upfront. We have great talent in Sarah and Jana projected into the 4/5 starting positions, but we are very dependent on not just one, but both being very good from the start, in their first year. Further our only natural backups Ayanna and Ice had first years that were significantly below expectations IMO, and I don't think they have shown (at least yet) that they can be good backups, at least by Uconn standards which are quite high. The contrast is stark. The floor for positions 1-3 is extremely high. Getting very good starters and backups from that group is almost a given, and we could even manage a couple of injuries and be very good. Upfront if both Sarah and Jana are the real deal, and both Ayanna and Ice make a giant leap, with Aubrey returning we could be very good there too. But the floor for 4/5 is still pretty scary. No proven experience or depth. Now personally I believe Sarah and Jana will start and have great careers, but of course we can't expect them to be as good as they will be later in their career in the first year. My concern is more with the backups. It might happen, but I don't think their first year performance bodes well for the careers of Ayanna or Ice. Of course they should improve, but they need to improve a lot to be a good Uconn backup. We are far more dependent on Ice making a giant leap because we don't have any other realistic options there. If Ayanna doesn't improve much, at least we have Aubrey returning at some point, and several of the perimeter candidates (Paige, Caroline, Morgan) could sub at the 4, but not the 5. [/QUOTE]

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