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Message: [QUOTE="Bone Dog, post: 5007550, member: 12088"] I love your breakdown, [USER=267]@cferraro04[/USER] ! And a season-long average analysis makes sense to me. But I am still thinking month by month. My breakdown would also be a little less position specific, since I expect Geno to run sets with different moving parts, like a plain vanilla 2-3, or a 4 guard set or even a 5-out set. Given the size of some his guards, this is a real possibility. That said, I think in November-December, when not all the returners are back, we might expect average minutes something like: [B]Paige (25) Ash or Azzi (25) KK (20) Ice (20) Jana (20) with Sarah (15) Azzi or Ash (15) Kaitlyn (10) Morgan (10) Q (10) Caroline (10) Allie (10) = 200 minutes.[/B] Obviously, the numbers are too neat and round, but you get the picture Come January and the possible return of Ayanna and the growing experience of the core players, I think the picture shifts to something more like this: [B]Paige (25) Azzi (25) KK (20) Sarah (25) Jana (25) with Ice (15) Ayanna (10) Ash (10) Kaitlyn (10) Morgan (8) Q (7) Caroline (10) Allie (10) = 200 minutes.[/B] It's just a guess about Sarah getting the start and more minutes, but it's not a reach. At this point, I imagine the rotation will still include everyone. In February, and with the possible return of Aubrey, I wouldn't be surprised to see something like this: [B]Paige (30) Azzi (25) KK or Kaitlyn (20) Sarah (20) Jana (30) with Aubrey (10) Ice (10) Ayanna (10) Ash (10) Kaitlyn or KK (10) Morgan (5) Q (5) Caroline (10) Allie (5) = 200 minutes[/B]. As you can see, I'm imagining Jana's minutes will only grow, and this clearly assumes that she impresses Geno and makes significant progress. If this doesn't happen, her minutes would probably shrink and Sarah's and Ice's would grow. It's also possible that Caroline could return stronger than I'm expecting in this forecast and might take some of Azzi's minutes, for example. You can also see that I haven't accounted for much shrinkage in the rotation, by which I mean the players in double figure minutes. In my view the rotation include all 12 healthy ones in November, only 11 in January with the return of Ayanna, in February once Aubrey returns, it would have shrunk to 10. In March, the full distribution might look like this: [B]Paige (30) Azzi (30) Kaitlyn (20) Sarah (30) Jana (30) with Aubrey (15) Caroline (15) Ash (10) KK (10) Ice (5) Ayanna (5) Morgan (3) Q (4) Allie (3) = 200 minutes[/B]. Here the rotation has shrunk to 9 players and consists mainly of seniors and the two sophomores who really proved themselves last season. I think this is the rotation Geno takes into the tournament, and it may shrink even a little more in April, if Aubrey or Caroline have a surge in the Big East tournament. If the Final Four or the NC game is really close, I wouldn't be surprised to see [B]Paige and Azzi play 35 mins each[/B], for example, and [B]KK and Kaitlyn may end up splitting 40 mins[/B] between them. If that happens, [B]Aubrey and Caroline[/B] may soak up the rest of the available minutes after [B]Sarah and Jana[/B]. This would be splitting the playing time among the most clutch performers Geno has available to him:[B] Paige Azzi Aubrey Caroline and Kaitlyn[/B] may belong to this list too. And the rest would go to the most promising new kids: [B]Sarah and Jana[/B]. It's true that [B]Ash[/B] would lose out, and this would seem to be more likely if they're up against a very tall team. If they're not, however, Ash might see her minutes climb in the last two rounds, since she could well prove to be a very clutch performer indeed. Obviously, games are fluid and minutes predictions are static. [/QUOTE]

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