doggydaddy
Grampysorus Rex
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
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Overview - I can't tell you how excited I am for this game. So many different story lines, sub-plots, etc.
#1 vs #2. Both undefeated. Storied programs. HOF coaches.
My favorite sub-plot is the Stanford home winning streak. Right now they are at 82. UConn has the record at 99. Odds are pretty good that Stanford will break that streak if UConn doesn't beat them Saturday. And Stanford was the team that stopped UConn's record winning streak at 90. So there is that revenge factor.
Stanford comes in at 11-0 with a great but often maligned win against Baylor. But Stanford outrebounded Baylor and even with Sims out they deserve a lot of credit for winning that game. They just made an SEC road trip, beating a tough defensive minded USC team and an offensively challenged Tennessee game. I look at the 53 points scored by Stanford in the USC game and wonder how much more they will score against the pressure defense (full court and half court) of UConn.
They are playing 6-7 players against the tough teams to date so Stanford has to stay out of foul trouble. And they might use Camp more as she is coming back from injury but helps with the guard rotation.
Missing from this years teams are Booth, Laroque and of course N. Owgumike. In last years game, they provided over 60 minutes and 30 of the 58 points with Camp having a career game with 14 points. She won't do that this year. Should be interesting to see how they make up that production. UConn loses Hayes from last years matchup. She had an interesting line with 9 points, 13 rebound and 6 assists.
Here are my matchups. I got some great input from a card fan (won't mention names) to set my matchups. I am using Stewart as I believe she might start and if not certainly play 25-30 minutes to Doty's 10-15.
(Stats listed in PPG, RPG, and APG order)
PG - Bria Hartley JR (5'10", 10.1, 2.0, 3.8) vs Amber Orrange SO (5'7", 10.9, 3.4, 5.4)
Orrange has had a terrific sophomore season to date. She is a terrific drive and dish player. She doesn't score much from the outside. Her defense is improved, but she will have her hands full with the renewed and revived Hartley. Hartley is playing like the AA we saw last year, but she is definately a stronger player. She is great at finishing at the basket and absorbing the contact. Her on the ball defense has picked up and her quick hands will be in the passing lanes.
Advantage UConn
SG - Kelly Faris SR (5'11", 9.4, 3.5, 4.2) vs Toni Kokenis JR (5'11", 8.9, 1.3, 1.6)
Kokenis is a solid player. But she is not very athletic. A streaky shooter, she has struggled this year at 27.8% on 3's. And at 1.6 assists per game, she is not passing as well as past years, down 2 per game from last year. Faris has worked incredibly hard on her outside shot and it's made a huge difference in the UConn offense. She can no longer be ignored. And of course, her defense and passing ability as as good as any 2 guard.
Advantage UConn
C - Stephanie Dolson JR (6'5", 11.7, 6.0, 3.1) vs Joslyn Tinkle SR (6'3", 13.9, 5.5, 1.2)
First of the big front line that I'm writing about. Her outside shot is down this year. She shot a terrific 39.7% last year but she is shooting more and making less. She probably got more open looks with N.Ogwumike on the floor. Alone, she might make a few, but with more defensive pressure, not so many. She's a very good shot blocker and will get one or two in this game. We talk about Stanford's size, but who do they have that can cover the 6'5" Dolson? Her post up moves are excellent and 1-1, Tinkle will struggle.
Advantage UConn
PF - Breanna Stewart FR (6'4", 16.9, 7.2, 1.1) vs Chiney Ogwumike JR (6'3", 21.8, 12.8, 1.4)
I really hope they do get matched up alot during the game. It will be so much fun to watch. Chiney is the one player over the last few years that I really wanted at UConn. She has exploded this year, showing that she truly is a first team AA. Her relentless rebounding is something that any player should emulate. Maybe this is the game that Stewart shows that she can play with the big girls. Her good but not great performances against Maryland and Penn State left some with questions about her ability to dominate against big and physical teams. This will be a big test for her.
Advantage Stanford
SF - Kaleena Lewis SO (6', 16.4, 5.0, 2.8) vs Mikaela Ruef JR (6'3", 2.8, 6.8, 1.4)
There couldn't be a more different matchup in skills and style. Full offensive arsenal vs no offense. But Ruef is a very good defensive player in the post. Not sure she will be chasing Lewis around the court. Can Lewis keep Ruef off the offensive boards? Lewis is surprisingly strong. This matchup is really no contest.
Advantage UConn
Bench – Doty, Banks, Jefferson, Tuck vs Greenfield, Samuelson, Camp.
Doty, Banks and probably Jefferson will allow UConn to use pressure defense for as long as they need to. And Tuck will be a big help in the post. Stanford will need either Greenfield or Samuelson to hit some 3's. And maybe Camp will be healthy enough to contribute solid minutes. She might be a UConn killer after last years great game.
Slight Advantage UConn
Coach – Geno vs Tara. The two best coaches in WCBB (sorry Muffet). Great in game coaches. Maybe the two best of all time.
Slight Advantage UConn (hey, I'm a UConn fan)
Final analysis – So, you'd think that with UConn's advantage at almost every position, the bench and the coach, this would be an easy call. Not so fast!!! Stanford didn't win 82 consecutive home games by accident. Maples puts the fans right on top, officials get intimidated (hey, it's part of home court) and Stanford players just play more confidently at home. But I do think that UConn has the offensive firepower to handle the Stanford defense. Stanford hasn't played against an offense like UConn's. Baylor was missing Sims and USC and Tennessee are not the best offensive teams to be kind. And I'm not so sure that the Stanford offense is good enough to handle the intense defensive pressure that UConn will put on them. Expect lots of TO's from the Stanford backcourt and from Chiney when she is trying to relieve the pressure. Orrange and Kokenis had 10 against the South Carolina pressure and 8 against Tennessee.
Final prediction – I like UConn in this game. I've been overestimating that last couple of games, so I'll try not to let my optimism get in the way of some realism. UConn pulls away at the end and I'll say UConn by 8 in a close game throughout.
For sure, it will be a great game to watch!!!
#1 vs #2. Both undefeated. Storied programs. HOF coaches.
My favorite sub-plot is the Stanford home winning streak. Right now they are at 82. UConn has the record at 99. Odds are pretty good that Stanford will break that streak if UConn doesn't beat them Saturday. And Stanford was the team that stopped UConn's record winning streak at 90. So there is that revenge factor.
Stanford comes in at 11-0 with a great but often maligned win against Baylor. But Stanford outrebounded Baylor and even with Sims out they deserve a lot of credit for winning that game. They just made an SEC road trip, beating a tough defensive minded USC team and an offensively challenged Tennessee game. I look at the 53 points scored by Stanford in the USC game and wonder how much more they will score against the pressure defense (full court and half court) of UConn.
They are playing 6-7 players against the tough teams to date so Stanford has to stay out of foul trouble. And they might use Camp more as she is coming back from injury but helps with the guard rotation.
Missing from this years teams are Booth, Laroque and of course N. Owgumike. In last years game, they provided over 60 minutes and 30 of the 58 points with Camp having a career game with 14 points. She won't do that this year. Should be interesting to see how they make up that production. UConn loses Hayes from last years matchup. She had an interesting line with 9 points, 13 rebound and 6 assists.
Here are my matchups. I got some great input from a card fan (won't mention names) to set my matchups. I am using Stewart as I believe she might start and if not certainly play 25-30 minutes to Doty's 10-15.
(Stats listed in PPG, RPG, and APG order)
PG - Bria Hartley JR (5'10", 10.1, 2.0, 3.8) vs Amber Orrange SO (5'7", 10.9, 3.4, 5.4)
Orrange has had a terrific sophomore season to date. She is a terrific drive and dish player. She doesn't score much from the outside. Her defense is improved, but she will have her hands full with the renewed and revived Hartley. Hartley is playing like the AA we saw last year, but she is definately a stronger player. She is great at finishing at the basket and absorbing the contact. Her on the ball defense has picked up and her quick hands will be in the passing lanes.
Advantage UConn
SG - Kelly Faris SR (5'11", 9.4, 3.5, 4.2) vs Toni Kokenis JR (5'11", 8.9, 1.3, 1.6)
Kokenis is a solid player. But she is not very athletic. A streaky shooter, she has struggled this year at 27.8% on 3's. And at 1.6 assists per game, she is not passing as well as past years, down 2 per game from last year. Faris has worked incredibly hard on her outside shot and it's made a huge difference in the UConn offense. She can no longer be ignored. And of course, her defense and passing ability as as good as any 2 guard.
Advantage UConn
C - Stephanie Dolson JR (6'5", 11.7, 6.0, 3.1) vs Joslyn Tinkle SR (6'3", 13.9, 5.5, 1.2)
First of the big front line that I'm writing about. Her outside shot is down this year. She shot a terrific 39.7% last year but she is shooting more and making less. She probably got more open looks with N.Ogwumike on the floor. Alone, she might make a few, but with more defensive pressure, not so many. She's a very good shot blocker and will get one or two in this game. We talk about Stanford's size, but who do they have that can cover the 6'5" Dolson? Her post up moves are excellent and 1-1, Tinkle will struggle.
Advantage UConn
PF - Breanna Stewart FR (6'4", 16.9, 7.2, 1.1) vs Chiney Ogwumike JR (6'3", 21.8, 12.8, 1.4)
I really hope they do get matched up alot during the game. It will be so much fun to watch. Chiney is the one player over the last few years that I really wanted at UConn. She has exploded this year, showing that she truly is a first team AA. Her relentless rebounding is something that any player should emulate. Maybe this is the game that Stewart shows that she can play with the big girls. Her good but not great performances against Maryland and Penn State left some with questions about her ability to dominate against big and physical teams. This will be a big test for her.
Advantage Stanford
SF - Kaleena Lewis SO (6', 16.4, 5.0, 2.8) vs Mikaela Ruef JR (6'3", 2.8, 6.8, 1.4)
There couldn't be a more different matchup in skills and style. Full offensive arsenal vs no offense. But Ruef is a very good defensive player in the post. Not sure she will be chasing Lewis around the court. Can Lewis keep Ruef off the offensive boards? Lewis is surprisingly strong. This matchup is really no contest.
Advantage UConn
Bench – Doty, Banks, Jefferson, Tuck vs Greenfield, Samuelson, Camp.
Doty, Banks and probably Jefferson will allow UConn to use pressure defense for as long as they need to. And Tuck will be a big help in the post. Stanford will need either Greenfield or Samuelson to hit some 3's. And maybe Camp will be healthy enough to contribute solid minutes. She might be a UConn killer after last years great game.
Slight Advantage UConn
Coach – Geno vs Tara. The two best coaches in WCBB (sorry Muffet). Great in game coaches. Maybe the two best of all time.
Slight Advantage UConn (hey, I'm a UConn fan)
Final analysis – So, you'd think that with UConn's advantage at almost every position, the bench and the coach, this would be an easy call. Not so fast!!! Stanford didn't win 82 consecutive home games by accident. Maples puts the fans right on top, officials get intimidated (hey, it's part of home court) and Stanford players just play more confidently at home. But I do think that UConn has the offensive firepower to handle the Stanford defense. Stanford hasn't played against an offense like UConn's. Baylor was missing Sims and USC and Tennessee are not the best offensive teams to be kind. And I'm not so sure that the Stanford offense is good enough to handle the intense defensive pressure that UConn will put on them. Expect lots of TO's from the Stanford backcourt and from Chiney when she is trying to relieve the pressure. Orrange and Kokenis had 10 against the South Carolina pressure and 8 against Tennessee.
Final prediction – I like UConn in this game. I've been overestimating that last couple of games, so I'll try not to let my optimism get in the way of some realism. UConn pulls away at the end and I'll say UConn by 8 in a close game throughout.
For sure, it will be a great game to watch!!!
