UConn / Stanford Analysis | The Boneyard

UConn / Stanford Analysis

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doggydaddy

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Overview - I can't tell you how excited I am for this game. So many different story lines, sub-plots, etc.
#1 vs #2. Both undefeated. Storied programs. HOF coaches.
My favorite sub-plot is the Stanford home winning streak. Right now they are at 82. UConn has the record at 99. Odds are pretty good that Stanford will break that streak if UConn doesn't beat them Saturday. And Stanford was the team that stopped UConn's record winning streak at 90. So there is that revenge factor.

Stanford comes in at 11-0 with a great but often maligned win against Baylor. But Stanford outrebounded Baylor and even with Sims out they deserve a lot of credit for winning that game. They just made an SEC road trip, beating a tough defensive minded USC team and an offensively challenged Tennessee game. I look at the 53 points scored by Stanford in the USC game and wonder how much more they will score against the pressure defense (full court and half court) of UConn.

They are playing 6-7 players against the tough teams to date so Stanford has to stay out of foul trouble. And they might use Camp more as she is coming back from injury but helps with the guard rotation.

Missing from this years teams are Booth, Laroque and of course N. Owgumike. In last years game, they provided over 60 minutes and 30 of the 58 points with Camp having a career game with 14 points. She won't do that this year. Should be interesting to see how they make up that production. UConn loses Hayes from last years matchup. She had an interesting line with 9 points, 13 rebound and 6 assists.

Here are my matchups. I got some great input from a card fan (won't mention names) to set my matchups. I am using Stewart as I believe she might start and if not certainly play 25-30 minutes to Doty's 10-15.

(Stats listed in PPG, RPG, and APG order)

PG - Bria Hartley JR (5'10", 10.1, 2.0, 3.8) vs Amber Orrange SO (5'7", 10.9, 3.4, 5.4)

Orrange has had a terrific sophomore season to date. She is a terrific drive and dish player. She doesn't score much from the outside. Her defense is improved, but she will have her hands full with the renewed and revived Hartley. Hartley is playing like the AA we saw last year, but she is definately a stronger player. She is great at finishing at the basket and absorbing the contact. Her on the ball defense has picked up and her quick hands will be in the passing lanes.

Advantage UConn

SG - Kelly Faris SR (5'11", 9.4, 3.5, 4.2) vs Toni Kokenis JR (5'11", 8.9, 1.3, 1.6)

Kokenis is a solid player. But she is not very athletic. A streaky shooter, she has struggled this year at 27.8% on 3's. And at 1.6 assists per game, she is not passing as well as past years, down 2 per game from last year. Faris has worked incredibly hard on her outside shot and it's made a huge difference in the UConn offense. She can no longer be ignored. And of course, her defense and passing ability as as good as any 2 guard.

Advantage UConn

C - Stephanie Dolson JR (6'5", 11.7, 6.0, 3.1) vs Joslyn Tinkle SR (6'3", 13.9, 5.5, 1.2)

First of the big front line that I'm writing about. Her outside shot is down this year. She shot a terrific 39.7% last year but she is shooting more and making less. She probably got more open looks with N.Ogwumike on the floor. Alone, she might make a few, but with more defensive pressure, not so many. She's a very good shot blocker and will get one or two in this game. We talk about Stanford's size, but who do they have that can cover the 6'5" Dolson? Her post up moves are excellent and 1-1, Tinkle will struggle.

Advantage UConn

PF - Breanna Stewart FR (6'4", 16.9, 7.2, 1.1) vs Chiney Ogwumike JR (6'3", 21.8, 12.8, 1.4)

I really hope they do get matched up alot during the game. It will be so much fun to watch. Chiney is the one player over the last few years that I really wanted at UConn. She has exploded this year, showing that she truly is a first team AA. Her relentless rebounding is something that any player should emulate. Maybe this is the game that Stewart shows that she can play with the big girls. Her good but not great performances against Maryland and Penn State left some with questions about her ability to dominate against big and physical teams. This will be a big test for her.

Advantage Stanford

SF - Kaleena Lewis SO (6', 16.4, 5.0, 2.8) vs Mikaela Ruef JR (6'3", 2.8, 6.8, 1.4)

There couldn't be a more different matchup in skills and style. Full offensive arsenal vs no offense. But Ruef is a very good defensive player in the post. Not sure she will be chasing Lewis around the court. Can Lewis keep Ruef off the offensive boards? Lewis is surprisingly strong. This matchup is really no contest.

Advantage UConn

Bench – Doty, Banks, Jefferson, Tuck vs Greenfield, Samuelson, Camp.

Doty, Banks and probably Jefferson will allow UConn to use pressure defense for as long as they need to. And Tuck will be a big help in the post. Stanford will need either Greenfield or Samuelson to hit some 3's. And maybe Camp will be healthy enough to contribute solid minutes. She might be a UConn killer after last years great game.

Slight Advantage UConn

Coach – Geno vs Tara. The two best coaches in WCBB (sorry Muffet). Great in game coaches. Maybe the two best of all time.

Slight Advantage UConn (hey, I'm a UConn fan)

Final analysis – So, you'd think that with UConn's advantage at almost every position, the bench and the coach, this would be an easy call. Not so fast!!! Stanford didn't win 82 consecutive home games by accident. Maples puts the fans right on top, officials get intimidated (hey, it's part of home court) and Stanford players just play more confidently at home. But I do think that UConn has the offensive firepower to handle the Stanford defense. Stanford hasn't played against an offense like UConn's. Baylor was missing Sims and USC and Tennessee are not the best offensive teams to be kind. And I'm not so sure that the Stanford offense is good enough to handle the intense defensive pressure that UConn will put on them. Expect lots of TO's from the Stanford backcourt and from Chiney when she is trying to relieve the pressure. Orrange and Kokenis had 10 against the South Carolina pressure and 8 against Tennessee.

Final prediction – I like UConn in this game. I've been overestimating that last couple of games, so I'll try not to let my optimism get in the way of some realism. UConn pulls away at the end and I'll say UConn by 8 in a close game throughout.

For sure, it will be a great game to watch!!!
 

msf22b

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Hard to find fault with your handicapping Doggy, perhaps Tinkle is slightly underestimated but the game is in the playing and I agree that Stanford at home with Chiney on a run is a formidable opponent.

And in a funny sort of way, we really don't know how good our team is at this moment; especially shorthanded.
But we're sure going to find out.
 
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I think it would make more sense to have Reuf on Dolson since she is more of a true post and tinkle on KML as Tinkle is more mobile and often plays on the perimeter. More logical and better fits positions. Would make sense as the size of Tinkle could disrupt the shot of KML.
 

doggydaddy

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I think it would make more sense to have Reuf on Dolson since she is more of a true post and tinkle on KML as Tinkle is more mobile and often plays on the perimeter. More logical and better fits positions. Would make sense as the size of Tinkle could disrupt the shot of KML.

As I said, I went with what the knowledgable Stanford fan advised me for who was the center, PF or SF.

Matchups will change all game long with switches and different combinations on the floor. I'm sure your situation will happen a few times.
 
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Right, also Doty is likely to start.

I think Uconn will win this game. A big key is Hartley and Kelly, who have are both averaging over 2 steals a game and their ability to press, with a sophomore point guard, a not very athletic shooting guard, and a team who historically has not handled a press well.

Ogwumike will be tough for either Stewart or Dolson, but the ball has to get to her in order for her to do damage.
 

Tonyc

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Doggy great job. Bottom line is Stanfords defense has to keep UConn under 60 and I dont think they can do that. I dont think Stanford can score 50 againest UConns defense unless UConn is so far out infront that Geno clears the bench, stops the pressure D, and goes to zone. I like UConn by double digets. Hartley and KML will be tuff to defend. They could have big nites. Kelly will have a terrific all round game.
Looking at the MD and Penn St games UConn wasnt 100% with their starters. UConn still has question marks with Tuck and Stokes. I think Tuck will be ready. It would be great to see Stokes in there even for a few minutes but from media reports we cant count on it.
 

msf22b

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Tony: I'm an optimist but Stanford under 50 sounds a little extreme.
Lets make it a normal game w UConn in the high 70's /low 80's and Stanford in the mid-60's.
I'd be perfectly happy if we can accomplish that.
 

Blakeon18

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DD...are you positive the home court streak is at 99? I somehow was under the impression that it was around 119 when St. John's stopped us last year. If so...if....that would push ahead any possible Stanford record breaking till next year.
 

doggydaddy

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DD...are you positive the home court streak is at 99? I somehow was under the impression that it was around 119 when St. John's stopped us last year. If so...if....that would push ahead any possible Stanford record breaking till next year.
99
 

easttexastrash

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I agree that UCONN has the advantage everywhere except CO. I have been INCREDIBLY impressed with her this year. She and Banks have both put in a great amount of work that is showing on the court. Banks could be a difference maker in this game. Tara is a great coach and the home court just after Christmas sways in Stanford's favor.

My money is still on UCONN. I am looking forward to seeing Stewart in her first big time game. I hope she plays freely and shows her full arsenal. It could be lots of fun to watch.
 

Tonyc

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Tony: I'm an optimist but Stanford under 50 sounds a little extreme.
Lets make it a normal game w UConn in the high 70's /low 80's and Stanford in the mid-60's.
I'd be perfectly happy if we can accomplish that.
I base the under 50 on MD and Penn St had their problems when KML and Bria werent 100%. One other point I also mention that if UConn does start running away with the game then I think Stanford has a good chance of scoring over 50pts. Could Stanford score in the 50's againest UConn. I think so. In a tight game Im not so sure based on what MD and Penn St did recently.
 
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Great analysis DD...I am anticipating a scoring duel between Bria and Kaleena...if one gets hot we're in great shape...if they both go off, it's all over. With an effective perimeter game that will include Kelly, Breanna and Brianna...the help defense in the post should have a Hobson's choice. And I love the thought of 6'-3" defenders running at our perimeter players, we should be able to pump and attack the paint from all directions...this makes Breanna the same wild card that Chiney was in the past with Neka as the primary threat...she could have a huge night if they don't commit Chiney to her...and either way her impact will be enormous. I'm also looking for Kelly to have a big night when the 3's start falling and the interior favors the athletes...
 

semper

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I'm worried about the lack of experience in our freshies. The Maples crowd could really rattle them, and they are going to try, for sure.
 
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Ogwumike will be tough for either Stewart or Dolson, but the ball has to get to her in order for her to do damage.

This will be a good prelude to the Baylor game...if we can force Chiney out of the paint to get the ball that bodes well for being able to deny Brittany...
 
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I'm worried about the lack of experience in our freshies. The Maples crowd could really rattle them, and they are going to try, for sure.

After this game, they will be more experienced that most Division 1 players...
 

meyers7

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Some team stats to add to DD analysis.


Scoring
UCONN - 88.1 ppg shooting 54%/41% (3pt)
Stanford – 77.7ppg shooting 51%/34% (3pt)

Defense
UCONN – 43 ppg 29%/33% (3pt)
Stanford – 51.7 ppg 31%/26% (3pt)

Rebounding
UCONN – 40.4 / Opp 27.8 for a +12.6 ......Offensive rebounds 136 / Opp 109
Stanford – 44.5 / Opp 31.6 for a +12.9 ........ Offensive rebounds 141/ Opp 148

Assists/Turnovers
UCONN – 22 apg / 13.7 tpg … .Opp 23.8 tpg for a +10.1 tpg
Stanford – 14.6 apg / 12.2 tpg….Opp 10.6 tpg for a -1.5 tpg

Steals/Blocks
UCONN – 12.2 spg / 5.7 bpg
Stanford – 5.5 spg / 5.5 bpg

So basically UCONN is a better scoring/shooting team. Defensively they look pretty even. UCONN should be able to stay even on the boards with them. Big advantage for UCONN in the A/T game. The game will probably be won on UCONN's ability to create turnovers and how well UCONN shoots.
 

Kibitzer

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Tara is a top-notch coach with a tall, talented and highly disciplined team, ranked #1 and playing at home. She also has one consensus AA player who can dominate a game.

Tara and her staff have had lots of film of UConn games to watch and analyze. My guess is that the toughest challenge for them is to limit the damage Kaleena can do. Next, in no particular order, Dolson, Hartley and Stewart. If any two of these four get hot hands, it's lights out.

On offense, all she needs (she already has Chiney) is someone to replicate Jeannette Pohlen (Samuelson?) and the Cardinal have a chance to extend their streak.
 
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I'm worried about the lack of experience in our freshies. The Maples crowd could really rattle them, and they are going to try, for sure.
Don't underestimate the power of my big mouth!!!! I will be there doing my best to keep the refs honest and our Huskies pumped up!!!! At the game 2 years ago @ Maples there was a fairly significant Husky fan contingent, I trust there will be a similar number this year!! I like our chances this year, especially if Tuck is able to contribute some quality minutes. I'm not counting on Kia returning and if she does, I'm not sure she is ready to play valuable minutes, Tuck has at least been practicing from what I gather. I am so psyched to be at this game!!!!!
 

CamrnCrz1974

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My keys to the game:

- Bring a double team to Chiney (use Faris as the double team), keep Dolson/Stewart (whichever one is not the primary defender on Chiney) in the paint, and make one of the other starters beat UConn from three. Stanford's starters are 18-64 from three (28.1 percent).

- When Greenfield or Samuelson (one, but not both) is in the game, use the above strategy, but keep a player shadowing Greenfield or Samuelson (in this case, use Faris as the shadow and have KML or a guard double Chiney), and make the one of the remaining three starters beat UConn from three.

- Maintain poise. Stanford is 1-7 in "#1 vs. #2" games, including 0-3 against UConn in such games.

- Keep the ball out of Orrange's hands. Amber Orrange is responsible for 59 out of the team's 161 assists (36.6 percent), but only for 34 out of 134 turnovers (25.3 percent) - and 7 of those turnovers came against South Carolina. Make other players handle the ball and try to create.

- Make Chiney defend in the post. Ogwumike has only committed 21 fouls in 11 games. Stanford has never had to play this year with Chiney on the bench in foul trouble. She had four fouls against Baylor, but played 37 minutes. She had 3 fouls against South Carolina, but played 40 minutes. In her 40 minutes against Tennessee, she only had 2 fouls. Go at her in the post, pump fake, and make her foul.

And the biggest key to the game:

- For UConn to win any game that involves a big home winning streak, the Huskies should NOT wear silver uniforms!
 

CompSci87

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Nice analysis, DD. One bone to pick: I don't know why you say Kokenis is not athletic. She is speedy, with quick hands too.
 

easttexastrash

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Nice analysis, DD. One bone to pick: I don't know why you say Kokenis is not athletic. She is speedy, with quick hands too.

If I am not mistaken, Tara once said that she is the fastest player that she has ever coached. My memory could be failing me, though.
 
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My keys to the game:

- Bring a double team to Chiney (use Faris as the double team), keep Dolson/Stewart (whichever one is not the primary defender on Chiney) in the paint, and make one of the other starters beat UConn from three. Stanford's starters are 18-64 from three (28.1 percent).

- When Greenfield or Samuelson (one, but not both) is in the game, use the above strategy, but keep a player shadowing Greenfield or Samuelson (in this case, use Faris as the shadow and have KML or a guard double Chiney), and make the one of the remaining three starters beat UConn from three.

- Maintain poise. Stanford is 1-7 in "#1 vs. #2" games, including 0-3 against UConn in such games.

- Keep the ball out of Orrange's hands. Amber Orrange is responsible for 59 out of the team's 161 assists (36.6 percent), but only for 34 out of 134 turnovers (25.3 percent) - and 7 of those turnovers came against South Carolina. Make other players handle the ball and try to create.

- Make Chiney defend in the post. Ogwumike has only committed 21 fouls in 11 games. Stanford has never had to play this year with Chiney on the bench in foul trouble. She had four fouls against Baylor, but played 37 minutes. She had 3 fouls against South Carolina, but played 40 minutes. In her 40 minutes against Tennessee, she only had 2 fouls. Go at her in the post, pump fake, and make her foul.

And the biggest key to the game:

- For UConn to win any game that involves a big home winning streak, the Huskies should NOT wear silver uniforms!

means nada, especially at Maples.
 
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